Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

January 14, 2016
  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangeang Api, Indonesia

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    4 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    4 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Queensland, Australia

    1 hour ago WATCH

  • Wildfire - N of Ravensthorpe, Western Australia - Australia

    59 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - N of Ravensthorpe, Western Australia - Australia

    59 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NE of Esperance, Western Australia - Australia

    59 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of Grafton, New South Wales - Australia

    59 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Katoomba, New South Wales - Australia

    59 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Batemans Bay, New South Wales - Australia

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Asosan, Japan

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - SW of Birao, Vakaga - Central African Republic

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Malakal, Upper Nile - South Sudan

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of Juan Jose Castelli, Chaco - Argentina

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Chos Malal, Neuquén - Argentina

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Western, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Tropical Cyclone - Pawan

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Tropical Cyclone - Ambali

    4 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Flood - Nebraska City, NE Region, United States

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SW of Diapaga, Tapoa - Burkina Faso

    4 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Flood - Carmi, IL Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Central City--Greenville, KY Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Highsurf - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Tropical Cyclone - Belna

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - New South Wales, Australia

    9 hours ago WATCH

  • Floods - Eastern Brazil

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Cibitoke Province, Burundi

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern Angola

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Eastern Wyoming, United States

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Sierra Nevada, California, United States

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Little Yoho National Park, Canada

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Southern Germany

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Southeastern Germany

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Southern Argentina

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Uganda

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Djibouti City, Djibouti

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Bududa, Uganda

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Sironko, Uganda

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Cunene Province, Angola

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 164km WNW of Hihifo, Tonga

    17 hours ago WATCH

  • Drought - Eastern South Korea

    10 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Storms - Southeastern New Zealand

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Central New Zealand

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - England, United Kingdom

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Banff, Yoho and Kootenay National Park, Canada

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Gunnison and Aspen, Colorado, United States

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Northern Utah, United States

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Western Wyoming, United States

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Southeastern Idaho, United States

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Glacier National Park, Canada

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Valparaiso Municipality, Chile

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bolivia

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Western Peru

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Flooding - Northern Philippines

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - South India

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.7 - 173km NW of Hihifo, Tonga

    15 hours ago WATCH

  • Winter Storm - Alaska, United States

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Mitchell, SD Region, United States

    14 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 138km ENE of Bristol Island, South Sandwich Islands

    20 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Nishinoshima, Japan

    20 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 128km SSE of Pondaguitan, Philippines

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 63km NNE of Isangel, Vanuatu

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Drought - Southeastern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern Alaska, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands

    1 day ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Eastern New Mexico

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Western and Northern DR Congo

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Peru

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Somalia and Kenya

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Central Asia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Dengue Fever Outbreak - Pakistan

    2 weeks ago ADVISORY

  • Dengue Outbreak - Philippines

    3 months ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    3 days ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Etna, Italy

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo/Uganda

    5 months ago WARNING

  • Dengue Fever Outbreak - Republic of the Sudan

    1 week ago ADVISORY

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico
January 14, 2016

Hurricane 01L (Alex) is active in the Atlantic Ocean…located approximately 490 miles south of Faial Island in the central Azores

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone Alex

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone Alex

Hurricane Alex is active in the eastern Atlantic Ocean, coming in at a category 1 storm with 85 mph winds…making it the strongest January hurricane on record

Alex is not just the first named storm for the 2016 calendar year. It’s also the first named storm to form in the Atlantic in January since 1978, the first January hurricane since 1938…and just the fourth known storm to arrive in the month since records began in 1851.

Here’s the satellite looped history of this very unusual tropical cyclone…beginning back on January 7th offshore from the southeast coast of the United States

Here’s a NOAA satellite image of this hurricane…along with what the computer models are showing

This tropical system is located about 490 miles south of Faial Island in the central Azores…moving north-northeast at a fast paced 20 mph.

According to the NHC, remarkably, Alex has undergone the transformation into a hurricane. A distinct eye is present, embedded within a fairly symmetric mass of deep convection.

Water vapor imagery shows that the upper level trough is now west of the cyclone, with divergent flow over the center – indicative of a tropical transition.

It is very unusual to have a hurricane over waters that are near 20 deg C, but the upper tropospheric temperatures are estimated to be around -60 deg C, which is significantly colder than the tropical mean.

The resulting instability is likely the main factor contributing to the tropical transition and intensification of Alex. With these changes, the government of the Azores has issued warnings for most of the Azores islands.

The initial intensity is set to 75 knots, although only slight additional intensification seems possible, since the system will be passing over even colder waters during the next day or two.

In 36 hours, the global models suggest that the cyclone will become extra-tropical as it begins to merge with a large low pressure area at higher latitudes. The post-tropical cyclone is then likely to lose its identity after 48 hours. 

The initial motion is north-northeastward or 020/17 knots. Alex is being steered by a shortwave mid-level trough that is rotating around a larger trough to the northwest. This should cause the cyclone to turn northward and north-northwestward and accelerate over the next couple of days.

The official track forecast is very similar to the previous one and also quite close to the consensus of the tightly-packed dynamical model forecast tracks.

The storm should dump between 3 and 5 inches of rain on the islands, with 7 inches possible in isolated locales. That precipitation could cause mudslides and flash floods…while dangerous storm surges could produce serious flooding along the coasts.

The Azores are a chain of islands about 850+ miles west of Portugal.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

The Azores Meteorological Service has issued a Hurricane Warning
for the islands of Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, and Terceira in
the central Azores, and a Tropical Storm Warning for the islands
of Sao Miguel and Santa Maria in the eastern Azores.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, and Terceira in the central
Azores

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sao Miguel and Santa Maria in the eastern Azores

 

Atlantic Ocean

Tropical Cyclone Alex

NHC textual advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

Caribbean Sea

There are no active tropical cyclones

WSI satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico