Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

May 16, 2016
  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    51 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Asosan, Japan

    9 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - SW of Birao, Vakaga - Central African Republic

    12 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Malakal, Upper Nile - South Sudan

    13 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Sangeang Api, Indonesia

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    4 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    3 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfires - Queensland, Australia

    21 minutes ago WATCH

  • Wildfire - N of Ravensthorpe, Western Australia - Australia

    21 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - N of Ravensthorpe, Western Australia - Australia

    21 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NE of Esperance, Western Australia - Australia

    22 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    3 hours ago WATCH

  • Wildfire - W of Grafton, New South Wales - Australia

    23 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Katoomba, New South Wales - Australia

    24 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Batemans Bay, New South Wales - Australia

    25 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - W of Juan Jose Castelli, Chaco - Argentina

    49 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Chos Malal, Neuquén - Argentina

    49 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Western, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Tropical Cyclone - Pawan

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Tropical Cyclone - Ambali

    3 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Flood - Nebraska City, NE Region, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SW of Diapaga, Tapoa - Burkina Faso

    3 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Flood - Carmi, IL Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Central City--Greenville, KY Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Highsurf - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    4 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Tropical Cyclone - Belna

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - New South Wales, Australia

    8 hours ago WATCH

  • Floods - Eastern Brazil

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Cibitoke Province, Burundi

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern Angola

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Eastern Wyoming, United States

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Sierra Nevada, California, United States

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Little Yoho National Park, Canada

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Southern Germany

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Southeastern Germany

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Southern Argentina

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Uganda

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Djibouti City, Djibouti

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Bududa, Uganda

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Sironko, Uganda

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Cunene Province, Angola

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 164km WNW of Hihifo, Tonga

    16 hours ago WATCH

  • Drought - Eastern South Korea

    9 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Storms - Southeastern New Zealand

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Central New Zealand

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - England, United Kingdom

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Banff, Yoho and Kootenay National Park, Canada

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Gunnison and Aspen, Colorado, United States

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Northern Utah, United States

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Western Wyoming, United States

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Southeastern Idaho, United States

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Glacier National Park, Canada

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Valparaiso Municipality, Chile

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bolivia

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Western Peru

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Flooding - Northern Philippines

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - South India

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.7 - 173km NW of Hihifo, Tonga

    14 hours ago WATCH

  • Winter Storm - Alaska, United States

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Mitchell, SD Region, United States

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 138km ENE of Bristol Island, South Sandwich Islands

    19 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Nishinoshima, Japan

    19 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 128km SSE of Pondaguitan, Philippines

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 63km NNE of Isangel, Vanuatu

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Drought - Southeastern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern Alaska, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands

    1 day ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Eastern New Mexico

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Western and Northern DR Congo

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Peru

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Somalia and Kenya

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Central Asia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Dengue Fever Outbreak - Pakistan

    2 weeks ago ADVISORY

  • Dengue Outbreak - Philippines

    3 months ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    3 days ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Etna, Italy

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo/Uganda

    5 months ago WARNING

  • Dengue Fever Outbreak - Republic of the Sudan

    1 week ago ADVISORY

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans
May 16, 2016

There are no active tropical cyclones in the Pacific and Indian Oceans…or adjacent seas

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours...with an area of disturbed weather with a 20% chance of developing

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and an area of disturbed weather with a 20% chance of developing

The hurricane season in the eastern Pacific Ocean began yesterday (May 15th). At the same time, we saw a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 90E, form about 1000 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. 

As of today (May 16th), this area is located about 950 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. It has changed little in organization since yesterday.

Some development of this disturbance is still possible today, while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. After that time, upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation.

Here’s a satellite image of this area.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours

Meanwhile, there continues to be an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 91B, circled in orange above…which has a medium chance of developing

This tropical disturbance was located about 140 NM east-northeast of Colombo, Sri Lanka. Here’s a satellite image…and a near real time wind profile – and what the computer models are showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery depicts flaring convection along the western periphery of the low level circulation center. This center is currently positioned over Sri Lanka, and slowly weakening due to land interaction. However, upper level conditions are relatively favorable. Heavy rains are currently falling over central Sri Lanka…causing flooding and some land and mudslides.

Further development of this tropical disturbance will depend upon the track of this system.

Most global models suggest the center will track poleward over water during the next few days, which in turn would allow for further consolidation.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20-25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours

Finally, there’s a third area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 94S, circled in yellow above…which has a low chance of developing

This tropical disturbance was located about 745 NM east-southeast of Diego Garcia, in the South Indian Ocean. Here’s a satellite image…and a near real time wind profile – and what the computer models are showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows a broad and elongated low level circulation center…with flaring central convection.

Microwave imagery shows sheared convection to the southeast of the partially exposed low level circulation center.

An upper level ridge of high pressure, centered to the east of the disturbance…is inducing 25-35 knots of wind shear.

Conditions are not currently favorable for tropical cyclone formation. Global model guidance does not indicate significant development during the next few days.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low


Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

1.)  An area of low pressure located about 950 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula has changed little in organization since yesterday. Some development of this disturbance is still possible today while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. After that time, upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

The Central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area