Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

May 16, 2016
  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    13 minutes ago WARNING

  • Tornado - Kansas City, MO WFO Region, US

    15 minutes ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    24 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    23 minutes ago WARNING

  • Flood - Miami, FL Region, United States

    35 minutes ago WARNING

  • Flood - Pecan Acres, TX Region, United States

    36 minutes ago WARNING

  • Flood - Greenville, TX Region, United States

    48 minutes ago WARNING

  • Flood - Osceola, AR Region, United States

    48 minutes ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 10km SW of Kakching, India

    4 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Spencer, IA Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - Huron, SD Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - Harlan, KY Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Asosan, Japan

    2 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - NE of Pine Creek, Northern Territory - Australia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Flood - Caruthersville, MO Region, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SW of Ciudad Altamirano, Guerrero - Mexico

    3 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - SE of Champoton, Campeche - Mexico

    3 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Flood - Baton Rouge, LA Region, United States

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Mineola, TX Region, United States

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - St. Louis, MO--IL Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Louisiana, MO Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Camden, AR Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Terre Haute, IN Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Round Lake Beach--McHenry--Grayslake, IL--WI Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Columbia, SC Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southeastern, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Tonganoxie, KS Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Grand Rapids, MI Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Defiance, OH Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Ligonier, IN Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - South Bend, IN--MI Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Three Rivers, MI Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Trinity, TX Region, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Victoria, TX Region, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - South Lyon--Howell, MI Region, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Karymsky, Russia

    8 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    11 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 29km WNW of Foxton, New Zealand

    23 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Ebeko, Russia

    19 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 205km NNE of Ile Hunter, New Caledonia

    19 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 205km NW of Visokoi Island, South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands

    20 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    20 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 125km SW of Mapastepec, Mexico

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.9 - Southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - Mid-Indian Ridge

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    2 days ago ADVISORY

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Klyuchevskoy, Russia

    2 days ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Rincon de la Vieja, Costa Rica

    2 days ago WATCH

  • Storms - Thailand

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Pakistan

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - India

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Western Australia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Brazil

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Uganda

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Somalia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - DR Congo

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Guatemala

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Mexico

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Mexico

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Brazil

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Vietnam

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Peninsular Malaysia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - West Java, Indonesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Yellow Fever - Nigeria

    5 months ago ADVISORY

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo/Uganda

    11 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Etna, Italy

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Kenya

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Ethiopia

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern Africa

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern Madagascar

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Yemen

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern United States

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Marshall Islands

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Mariana Islands

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Measles Outbreak - Democratic Republic of the Congo

    4 months ago INFORMATION

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans
May 16, 2016

There are no active tropical cyclones in the Pacific and Indian Oceans…or adjacent seas

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours...with an area of disturbed weather with a 20% chance of developing

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and an area of disturbed weather with a 20% chance of developing

The hurricane season in the eastern Pacific Ocean began yesterday (May 15th). At the same time, we saw a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 90E, form about 1000 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. 

As of today (May 16th), this area is located about 950 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. It has changed little in organization since yesterday.

Some development of this disturbance is still possible today, while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. After that time, upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation.

Here’s a satellite image of this area.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours

Meanwhile, there continues to be an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 91B, circled in orange above…which has a medium chance of developing

This tropical disturbance was located about 140 NM east-northeast of Colombo, Sri Lanka. Here’s a satellite image…and a near real time wind profile – and what the computer models are showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery depicts flaring convection along the western periphery of the low level circulation center. This center is currently positioned over Sri Lanka, and slowly weakening due to land interaction. However, upper level conditions are relatively favorable. Heavy rains are currently falling over central Sri Lanka…causing flooding and some land and mudslides.

Further development of this tropical disturbance will depend upon the track of this system.

Most global models suggest the center will track poleward over water during the next few days, which in turn would allow for further consolidation.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20-25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours

Finally, there’s a third area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 94S, circled in yellow above…which has a low chance of developing

This tropical disturbance was located about 745 NM east-southeast of Diego Garcia, in the South Indian Ocean. Here’s a satellite image…and a near real time wind profile – and what the computer models are showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows a broad and elongated low level circulation center…with flaring central convection.

Microwave imagery shows sheared convection to the southeast of the partially exposed low level circulation center.

An upper level ridge of high pressure, centered to the east of the disturbance…is inducing 25-35 knots of wind shear.

Conditions are not currently favorable for tropical cyclone formation. Global model guidance does not indicate significant development during the next few days.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low


Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

1.)  An area of low pressure located about 950 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula has changed little in organization since yesterday. Some development of this disturbance is still possible today while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. After that time, upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

The Central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area