Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

November 19, 2015
  • Wildfires - Queensland, Australia

    7 minutes ago WATCH

  • Wildfire - N of Ravensthorpe, Western Australia - Australia

    6 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - N of Ravensthorpe, Western Australia - Australia

    6 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Birao, Vakaga - Central African Republic

    4 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Diapaga, Tapoa - Burkina Faso

    4 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Malakal, Upper Nile - South Sudan

    4 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Katoomba, New South Wales - Australia

    6 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NE of Esperance, Western Australia - Australia

    6 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of Grafton, New South Wales - Australia

    6 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    35 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NW of Batemans Bay, New South Wales - Australia

    6 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Sangeang Api, Indonesia

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    2 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - W of Juan Jose Castelli, Chaco - Argentina

    32 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Chos Malal, Neuquén - Argentina

    32 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Tropical Cyclone - Belna

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Western, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Tropical Cyclone - Pawan

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - New South Wales, Australia

    2 hours ago WATCH

  • Floods - Eastern Brazil

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Cibitoke Province, Burundi

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern Angola

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Eastern Wyoming, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Sierra Nevada, California, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Little Yoho National Park, Canada

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Southern Germany

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Southeastern Germany

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Southern Argentina

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Uganda

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Djibouti City, Djibouti

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Bududa, Uganda

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Sironko, Uganda

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Cunene Province, Angola

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 164km WNW of Hihifo, Tonga

    10 hours ago WATCH

  • Drought - Eastern South Korea

    2 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Storms - Southeastern New Zealand

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Central New Zealand

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - England, United Kingdom

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Banff, Yoho and Kootenay National Park, Canada

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Gunnison and Aspen, Colorado, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Northern Utah, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Western Wyoming, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Southeastern Idaho, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Glacier National Park, Canada

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Valparaiso Municipality, Chile

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bolivia

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Western Peru

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Flooding - Northern Philippines

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - South India

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.7 - 173km NW of Hihifo, Tonga

    7 hours ago WATCH

  • Winter Storm - Alaska, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Asosan, Japan

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Charleston, MO Region, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Mitchell, SD Region, United States

    7 hours ago WARNING

  • Tropical Cyclone - Ambali

    8 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Highsurf - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    10 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 138km ENE of Bristol Island, South Sandwich Islands

    13 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Nishinoshima, Japan

    13 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 128km SSE of Pondaguitan, Philippines

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - Western Indian-Antarctic Ridge

    21 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Highwind - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    22 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 63km NNE of Isangel, Vanuatu

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern Alaska, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands

    1 day ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Eastern New Mexico

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Western and Northern DR Congo

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 171km E of Kurilsk, Russia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Peru

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Somalia and Kenya

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Central Asia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Dengue Fever Outbreak - Pakistan

    2 weeks ago ADVISORY

  • Dengue Outbreak - Philippines

    3 months ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    3 days ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Etna, Italy

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo/Uganda

    5 months ago WARNING

  • Dengue Fever Outbreak - Republic of the Sudan

    1 week ago ADVISORY

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans
November 19, 2015

Tropical Cyclone 27W (In-fa) is active western Pacific Ocean, located about 421 NM southeast of Andersen AFB, Guam….

Tropical Cyclone 21E (Rick) is active eastern Pacific Ocean, located about 315 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico….

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone segments and positions, and TAOS potential tropical cyclone impacts for Tropical Cyclone In-fa (27W)… and an area of tropical disturbance with a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone segments and positions, and TAOS potential tropical cyclone impacts for Tropical Cyclone In-fa (27W)… and an area of tropical disturbance with a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours

Tropical Cyclone 27W (In-fa) is active in the western Pacific Ocean…as a Typhoon

Here’s a satellite  loop of 27W – and what the computer models are showing

Here’s a near real time wind profile of this tropical storm

This tropical cyclone is located 421 NM southeast of Andersen AFB, Guam …moving west-northwest at 11 knots. Maximum surface winds at the JTWC advisory #11 were 65 knots…with gusts to 80 knots

There is also a tropical disturbance in the southern Pacific Ocean…known as 93P Invest

This area, circled in yellow above…is located about 280 NM south of Honiara, Solomon Islands – here’s a satellite loop of this disturbance – and what the computer models are showing

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone segments and positions, and TAOS potential tropical cyclone impacts for Tropical Cyclone Rick (21E)…and an area of tropical disturbance with a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone segments and positions, and TAOS potential tropical cyclone impacts for Tropical Cyclone Rick (21E)…and an area of tropical disturbance with a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours

Tropical Cyclone 21E (Rick) is active in the eastern Pacific Ocean…as a Tropical Storm

Here’s a satellite  loop of 21E – and what the computer models are showing

Here’s a near real time wind profile of this tropical storm

This tropical cyclone is located 315 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico …moving north at 06 knots. Maximum surface winds at the NHC Advisory #01 were 35 knots…with gusts to 45 knots

There is also an area of disturbed weather in the eastern Pacific Ocean (circled in yellow)

Here is a satellite image of the area

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation…and an area of tropical disturbance with a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation…and an area of tropical disturbance with a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours

There is also an area of disturbed weather in the Southern Indian Ocean…known as Invest 94S

This area, circled in orange above…is located about 252 NM east-southeast of Diego Garcia – here’s a satellite image of this disturbance – and what the computer models are showing

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium

Eastern North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 21E (Twenty-one)   

NHC textual warning
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PST THU NOV 19 2015

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south or southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec late this weekend or
early next week. Environmental conditions are forecast to become
conducive for development by early next week while the low moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 27W (In-fa)   

JTWC textual warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

JTWC Significant Tropical Weather Advisory for the southern Pacific Ocean (Issued Nov 19 2015/06Z):

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.8S
160.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1S 159.4E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
SOUTH OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 190320Z NOAA-19 89 MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL A FULLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED
105 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH 10 TO 15 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT
STRENGTHEN THE SYSTEM DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

JTWC Significant Tropical Weather Advisory for the Indian Ocean (Issued Nov 19 2015/18Z):

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.7S 80.6E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7S 76.9E, APPROXIMATELY 252 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
BROAD ALBEIT WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATING BANDS. AN 191622Z SSMI-S MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS THE
DEEPER CONVECTION IS FRAGMENTED ALONG THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN AREA OF LOW-
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT IS MOSTLY OFFSET BY EXCELLENT
RADIAL OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AT 28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. NUMERIC
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE INTENSIFICATION TO A 35-KNOT SYSTEM IN 60-66
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area