Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans
November 17, 2015Tropical Cyclone 27W (In-fa) is active western Pacific Ocean, located about 163 NM southeast of Pohnpei….
PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone segments and positions, and TAOS potential tropical cyclone impacts for Tropical Cyclone In-fa (27W)… and an area of tropical disturbance with a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours
Tropical Cyclone 27W (In-fa) is active in the western Pacific Ocean…as a Tropical Storm strength cyclone
Here’s a satellite loop of 27W – and what the computer models are showing
Here’s a near real time wind profile of this tropical storm
This tropical cyclone is located 163 NM southeast of Pohnpei …moving west-northwest at 16 knots. Maximum surface winds at the JTWC advisory #03 were 40 knots…with gusts to 50 knots
There is also a tropical disturbance, 93P Invest (circled in yellow above) which is located in the south Pacific Ocean about 175 NM east-southeast of Honiara, Solomon Islands
Here’s a satellite loop of this disturbance – and what the computer models are showing
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low
PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation…and an area of tropical disturbance with a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours
Also, there is an area of disturbed weather in the eastern Pacific Ocean…known as Invest 90E
Here’s a satellite image of this area – and what the computer models are showing
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium
PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation…and an area of tropical disturbance with a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours
There is also an area of disturbed weather in the Southern Indian Ocean…known as Invest 94S
This area, circled in yellow above…is located about 646 NM east-northeast of Diego Garcia – here’s a satellite image of this disturbance – and what the computer models are showing
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low
Eastern North Pacific
There are no current tropical cyclones
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PST TUE NOV 17 2015
For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an
elongated area of low pressure extending from several hundred miles
south to southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula has increased and become more concentrated since
yesterday. Environmental conditions are conducive for development
through late this week, and a tropical depression is likely to form
during the next few days while this system moves west-northwestward
to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent
Central North Pacific
There are no current tropical cyclones
Western North Pacific
There are no current tropical cyclones
Tropical Cyclone 27W (In-fa)
JTWC textual warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image
South Pacific
There are no current tropical cyclones
JTWC Significant Tropical Weather Advisory for the southern Pacific Ocean (Issued Nov 17 2015/18Z):
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.8S
165.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.3S 161.7E, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A POORLY DEFINED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
North Indian Ocean
There are no current tropical cyclones
South Indian Ocean
There are no current tropical cyclones
JTWC Significant Tropical Weather Advisory for the Indian Ocean (Issued Nov 17 2015/18Z):
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.7S 82.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 646 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROADLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH BROKEN BANDS OF WEAK CONVECTION
PERSISTING IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC. AN EARLIER 170427Z ASCAT
PASS INDICATED WIND SPEEDS NEAR THE CENTER RANGED FROM 15 TO 20
KNOTS, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY,
IN AN AREA OF STRONG GRADIENT INDUCED WINDS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC ARE FAVORABLE, RANGING FROM
29 TO 30 CELSIUS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS IN AN
AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KTS) WITH FAVORABLE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
North Arabian Sea
There are no current tropical cyclones
