Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

November 27, 2015
  • Winter Storm - Upper Midwestern, United States

    8 minutes ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Central, United States

    12 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    13 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    33 minutes ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Northern Rockies and Plains, United States

    59 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    1 hour ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 141km W of Abepura, Indonesia

    6 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - Warner Robins, GA Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Floods - Upper Midwestern, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Bor, Jungoli - South Sudan

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - N of Nkawkaw, Eastern - Ghana

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - S of Ndele, Bamingui-Bangoran - Central African Republic

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Shishaldin, United States

    1 hour ago WATCH

  • Tropical Cyclone - Tino

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Victoria, Australia

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Northeastern, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Niquen Commune, Chile

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - South Lyon--Howell, MI Region, United States

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Taal, Philippines

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Northwestern, United States

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Miami, OK Region, United States

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Jackson, AL Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Osceola, AR Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Kuchinoerabujima, Japan

    4 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Asosan, Japan

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Jamestown, NY Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Paducah, KY--IL Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.4 - 8km S of Indios, Puerto Rico

    1 week ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - E of Corumba, Mato Grosso do Sul - Brazil

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Winter Storm - Alaska, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Oconto, WI Region, United States

    7 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Defiance, OH Region, United States

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Blountstown, FL Region, United States

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Watertown, NY Region, United States

    14 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    15 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 100km NE of Alotau, Papua New Guinea

    17 hours ago ADVISORY

  • High Winds - British Columbia, Canada

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Manitoba, Canada

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - New Brunswick, Canada

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - 166km E of Raoul Island, New Zealand

    20 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Southeastern, United States

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.3 - 178km ESE of Raoul Island, New Zealand

    20 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 124km SSW of Tual, Indonesia

    21 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Minneapolis--St. Paul, MN--WI Region, United States

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Florence, SC Region, United States

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Northwest Territories, Canada

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Nova Scotia, Canada

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Nunavut, Canada

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Northern Ontario, Canada

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Prince Edward Island, Canada

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southwestern South Africa

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Muscat, Oman

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Northern Rockes and Plains, United States

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Southwestern United States

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Germany

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Germany

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Finland

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northwestern Italy

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Central Switzerland

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - New South Wales, Australia

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Angol Commune, Chile

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northeastern Peru

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Southern Argentina

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Southern Brazil

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Mozambique, Malawi, and eastern Zambia

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Central Afghanistan

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Pakistan

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Mexico

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - England, United Kingdom

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Southern Switzerland

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Wales, United Kingdom

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southwestern Iran

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Northwestern United States

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Idaho, United States

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Wyoming, United States

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Utah, United States

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Montana, United States

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - California, United States

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Western Canada

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central Peru

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Peru

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Brazil

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Samarinda City, Indonesia

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Northern India

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Waterton Lakes National Park, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Southern Quebec, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - South Australia, Australia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.9 - Ascension Island region

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo/Uganda

    7 months ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Chillán commune, Chile

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Central Chile

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storm - Northern Paraguay

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Cabo Delgado, Mozambique

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Glacier National Park, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Little Yoho National Park, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Banff, Yoho, Kootenay National Park, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanches - Northern Pakistan

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - New South Wales, Australia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Northern India

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Northern India

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Zambezi Region, Nambia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northwestern Angola

    2 days ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Western Peru

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Zimbabwe and Mozambique

    2 days ago WATCH

  • Floods - Northern Madagascar

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Central Asia

    2 days ago WATCH

  • Winter Storms - Western and Southern Afghanistan

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nishinoshima, Japan

    3 days ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Krakatau, Indonesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus – China

    4 days ago INFORMATION

  • Measles Outbreak - Democratic Republic of the Congo

    1 week ago INFORMATION

  • Yellow Fever - Nigeria

    1 month ago ADVISORY

  • Dengue Outbreak - Philippines

    2 weeks ago INFORMATION

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans
November 27, 2015

Tropical Cyclone 22E (Sandra) remains active in the eastern Pacific Ocean…located about 280 miles south-southwest of Mazatlan, Mexico

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas, centered on Mexico, displaying PDC Integrated Active Hazards, Tropical Cyclone Position and Segments, and Estimated Rainfall layers.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas, centered on Mexico, displaying PDC Integrated Active Hazards, Tropical Cyclone Position and Segments, and Estimated Rainfall layers.

Tropical Cyclone 22E (Sandra) remains active in the eastern Pacific Ocean as a category 2 Hurricane…taking aim on the Mexican west coast

Here’s a satellite  loop of 22E – and what the computer models are showing

Here’s a near real time wind profile of this hurricane

Tropical cyclone Sandra is located 280 miles south-southwest of Mazatlan, Mexico…moving north-northeast at 12 mph. Maximum surface winds at the NHC advisory #16 were 85 knots…with gusts to 105 knots

This tropical cyclone goes into the record books as the latest (in the eastern Pacific season) major hurricane in the Western Hemisphere! In addition, no tropical cyclone on record has made landfall so late in the year, on either the Atlantic or Pacific coast of Mexico. The current record-holder is Tara…which occurred November 12th, 1961.

Sandra peaked at category 4 strength early on Thanksgiving Day (November 26th), with top sustained winds briefly hitting 145 mph.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the coverage of cold cloud tops within the central dense overcast (CDO) of Sandra continues to decrease, and the southwestern portion of the CDO has eroded, due to about 30 knot southwesterly wind shear. An 1133Z SSMIS image also showed that the eye had become less distinct. 

Quick weakening is expected during the next 24 hours, as the wind shear is forecast to increase to 40 to 45 knots. This should result in the low-level circulation of Sandra decoupling from the mid-level circulation before it reaches the coast.

Sandra is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm later today and continue to weaken as it approaches the coast of Mexico in about 24 hours, but is still expected to be a tropical storm. After landfall, the low-level circulation should quickly dissipate, although a 36 hour forecast point was provided, to show the system moving inland.

The current track will bring the center of Sandra to the coast of Mexico in about 24 hours. Given the eastward shift in the forecast track, and the expectation that Sandra will still be a tropical storm as it nears the coast, the Government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm warning for Las Islas Marias and part of the coasts of the states of Sinaloa and Nayarit.

Regardless of Sandra’s intensity at landfall, the main threat will be heavy rains across portions of several Mexican states. The remnant middle and upper level moisture associated with Sandra will contribute to a significant precipitation event…expected to occur over portions of the south-central United States this weekend.

Here’s a NOAA 2-day precipitation forecast graphic…showing this major swath of heavy rainfall moving over Mexico, Texas, and northeastward from there.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation

Meanwhile, in the southwest Pacific Ocean, there’s an area of disturbed weather, circled in red above…being referred to as Invest 95P

Here’s what the computer models are showing – with a satellite image

According to the JTWC, this area is located about 465 NM north-northeast of Suva, Fiji

Satellite imagery shows increasing organization of the low level circulation center, with persistent convection located over the area.

Enhanced cross equatorial westerlies north of the center are helping to quickly spin up this disturbance.

Upper level analysis indicates the disturbance is located in an area of low 10-15 knot easterly wind shear…and excellent poleward outflow.

Weather guidance is indicating the center will continue to consolidate, with formation of a tropical cyclone likely over the next 12-24 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated to be 25-30 knots.

The JTWC notes that the potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is high

 

Eastern North Pacific

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area