Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

November 27, 2015
  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    2 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Asosan, Japan

    2 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - SW of Birao, Vakaga - Central African Republic

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Diapaga, Tapoa - Burkina Faso

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Malakal, Upper Nile - South Sudan

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of Grafton, New South Wales - Australia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Katoomba, New South Wales - Australia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Batemans Bay, New South Wales - Australia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Chos Malal, Neuquén - Argentina

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 128km SSE of Pondaguitan, Philippines

    19 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Cyclone - Ambali

    4 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tropical Cyclone - Pawan

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - Western Indian-Antarctic Ridge

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Highsurf - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Highwind - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 63km NNE of Isangel, Vanuatu

    8 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Cyclone - Belna

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    9 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Winter Storm - Western, United States

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Tropical Depression - Kammuri

    10 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfires - El Quisco, Chile

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Central New Zealand

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southeastern New Zealand

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Flooding - Northern Philippines

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Northern and Central South Korea

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Eastern South Korea

    11 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Storms - Sri Lanka

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Scotland, United Kingdom

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Northeastern France

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southeastern Italy

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Northern Germany

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Banff, Yoho and Kootenay National Park, Canada

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Glacier National Park, Canada

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern United States

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern Alaska, United States

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Gunnison and Aspen, Colorado, United States

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Eastern New Mexico

    13 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Northern South Africa

    13 hours ago WATCH

  • Floods - Western and Northern DR Congo

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Bududa, Uganda

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Esperance, Western Australia - Australia

    14 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 171km E of Kurilsk, Russia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Nebraska City, NE Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - St. Joseph, MO--KS Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Richmond, MO Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Central City--Greenville, KY Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Charleston, MO Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Carmi, IL Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangeang Api, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Sironko, Uganda

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Cunene Province, Angola

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Northwest Territories, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Madiera, Portugal

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Western Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bolivia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Argentina

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northwestern Argentina

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Somalia and Kenya

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Djibouti City, Djibouti

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Uganda

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northwestern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - England, United Kingdom

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - South India

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Argentina

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Central Asia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Dengue Fever Outbreak - Pakistan

    2 weeks ago ADVISORY

  • Dengue Outbreak - Philippines

    3 months ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    2 days ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Etna, Italy

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo/Uganda

    5 months ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Western Wyoming, United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Southeastern Idaho, United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Northern Utah, United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Dengue Fever Outbreak - Republic of the Sudan

    1 week ago ADVISORY

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans
November 27, 2015

Tropical Cyclone 22E (Sandra) remains active in the eastern Pacific Ocean…located about 280 miles south-southwest of Mazatlan, Mexico

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas, centered on Mexico, displaying PDC Integrated Active Hazards, Tropical Cyclone Position and Segments, and Estimated Rainfall layers.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas, centered on Mexico, displaying PDC Integrated Active Hazards, Tropical Cyclone Position and Segments, and Estimated Rainfall layers.

Tropical Cyclone 22E (Sandra) remains active in the eastern Pacific Ocean as a category 2 Hurricane…taking aim on the Mexican west coast

Here’s a satellite  loop of 22E – and what the computer models are showing

Here’s a near real time wind profile of this hurricane

Tropical cyclone Sandra is located 280 miles south-southwest of Mazatlan, Mexico…moving north-northeast at 12 mph. Maximum surface winds at the NHC advisory #16 were 85 knots…with gusts to 105 knots

This tropical cyclone goes into the record books as the latest (in the eastern Pacific season) major hurricane in the Western Hemisphere! In addition, no tropical cyclone on record has made landfall so late in the year, on either the Atlantic or Pacific coast of Mexico. The current record-holder is Tara…which occurred November 12th, 1961.

Sandra peaked at category 4 strength early on Thanksgiving Day (November 26th), with top sustained winds briefly hitting 145 mph.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the coverage of cold cloud tops within the central dense overcast (CDO) of Sandra continues to decrease, and the southwestern portion of the CDO has eroded, due to about 30 knot southwesterly wind shear. An 1133Z SSMIS image also showed that the eye had become less distinct. 

Quick weakening is expected during the next 24 hours, as the wind shear is forecast to increase to 40 to 45 knots. This should result in the low-level circulation of Sandra decoupling from the mid-level circulation before it reaches the coast.

Sandra is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm later today and continue to weaken as it approaches the coast of Mexico in about 24 hours, but is still expected to be a tropical storm. After landfall, the low-level circulation should quickly dissipate, although a 36 hour forecast point was provided, to show the system moving inland.

The current track will bring the center of Sandra to the coast of Mexico in about 24 hours. Given the eastward shift in the forecast track, and the expectation that Sandra will still be a tropical storm as it nears the coast, the Government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm warning for Las Islas Marias and part of the coasts of the states of Sinaloa and Nayarit.

Regardless of Sandra’s intensity at landfall, the main threat will be heavy rains across portions of several Mexican states. The remnant middle and upper level moisture associated with Sandra will contribute to a significant precipitation event…expected to occur over portions of the south-central United States this weekend.

Here’s a NOAA 2-day precipitation forecast graphic…showing this major swath of heavy rainfall moving over Mexico, Texas, and northeastward from there.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation

Meanwhile, in the southwest Pacific Ocean, there’s an area of disturbed weather, circled in red above…being referred to as Invest 95P

Here’s what the computer models are showing – with a satellite image

According to the JTWC, this area is located about 465 NM north-northeast of Suva, Fiji

Satellite imagery shows increasing organization of the low level circulation center, with persistent convection located over the area.

Enhanced cross equatorial westerlies north of the center are helping to quickly spin up this disturbance.

Upper level analysis indicates the disturbance is located in an area of low 10-15 knot easterly wind shear…and excellent poleward outflow.

Weather guidance is indicating the center will continue to consolidate, with formation of a tropical cyclone likely over the next 12-24 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated to be 25-30 knots.

The JTWC notes that the potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is high

 

Eastern North Pacific

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area