Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

December 31, 2015
  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    4 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    4 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangeang Api, Indonesia

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Queensland, Australia

    1 hour ago WATCH

  • Wildfire - N of Ravensthorpe, Western Australia - Australia

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - N of Ravensthorpe, Western Australia - Australia

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NE of Esperance, Western Australia - Australia

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of Grafton, New South Wales - Australia

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Katoomba, New South Wales - Australia

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Batemans Bay, New South Wales - Australia

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Asosan, Japan

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - SW of Birao, Vakaga - Central African Republic

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Malakal, Upper Nile - South Sudan

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of Juan Jose Castelli, Chaco - Argentina

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Chos Malal, Neuquén - Argentina

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Western, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Tropical Cyclone - Pawan

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Tropical Cyclone - Ambali

    4 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Flood - Nebraska City, NE Region, United States

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SW of Diapaga, Tapoa - Burkina Faso

    4 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Flood - Carmi, IL Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Central City--Greenville, KY Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Highsurf - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Tropical Cyclone - Belna

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - New South Wales, Australia

    9 hours ago WATCH

  • Floods - Eastern Brazil

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Cibitoke Province, Burundi

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern Angola

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Eastern Wyoming, United States

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Sierra Nevada, California, United States

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Little Yoho National Park, Canada

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Southern Germany

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Southeastern Germany

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Southern Argentina

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Uganda

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Djibouti City, Djibouti

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Bududa, Uganda

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Sironko, Uganda

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Cunene Province, Angola

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 164km WNW of Hihifo, Tonga

    17 hours ago WATCH

  • Drought - Eastern South Korea

    10 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Storms - Southeastern New Zealand

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Central New Zealand

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - England, United Kingdom

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Banff, Yoho and Kootenay National Park, Canada

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Gunnison and Aspen, Colorado, United States

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Northern Utah, United States

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Western Wyoming, United States

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Southeastern Idaho, United States

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Glacier National Park, Canada

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Valparaiso Municipality, Chile

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bolivia

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Western Peru

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Flooding - Northern Philippines

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - South India

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.7 - 173km NW of Hihifo, Tonga

    15 hours ago WATCH

  • Winter Storm - Alaska, United States

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Mitchell, SD Region, United States

    14 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 138km ENE of Bristol Island, South Sandwich Islands

    20 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Nishinoshima, Japan

    20 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 128km SSE of Pondaguitan, Philippines

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 63km NNE of Isangel, Vanuatu

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Drought - Southeastern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern Alaska, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands

    1 day ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Eastern New Mexico

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Western and Northern DR Congo

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Peru

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Somalia and Kenya

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Central Asia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Dengue Fever Outbreak - Pakistan

    2 weeks ago ADVISORY

  • Dengue Outbreak - Philippines

    3 months ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    3 days ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Etna, Italy

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo/Uganda

    5 months ago WARNING

  • Dengue Fever Outbreak - Republic of the Sudan

    1 week ago ADVISORY

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans
December 31, 2015

Tropical Cyclone 06P (Ula) remains active…located about 122 NM southeast of Pago Pago

Tropical Depression 09C is now active…located about 1800 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone Ula

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone Ula

Tropical Cyclone 06P (Ula) remains active in the southwestern Pacific…and will continue strengthening

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical cyclone…along with what the computer models are showing

This TC was located about 122 NM southeast of Pago Pago…and has been moving west-southeastward at 06 knots.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows a more symmetric convective core with deep spiral cloud banding wrapping in from all quadrants. The animated enhanced infrared satellite loop has shown evidence of a developing pinhole eye feature.

Upper level analysis shows a favorable environment, with low wind shear and radial outflow.

TC 06P is expected to track westward, with favorable environmental conditions through 48 hours, supporting continued intensification.

The cyclone is forecast to intensify to 80 knots under these favorable conditions, although then weaken after 72 hours, and turn northward…meeting stronger wind shear and subsidence aloft.

Maximum surface winds at the JTWC advisory #3 were 55 knots…with gusts to 70 knots

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments for Tropical Cyclone 09C

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments for Tropical Depression 09C

Tropical Depression 09C remains active in the far southwestern corner of the Central Pacific…staying away from land

Here’s a satellite image of this depression…and what the computer models are showing

This area is located about 1800 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii…moving west-northwestward at 2 mph.

According to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC): TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE-C...THE SIXTEENTH TROPICAL CYCLONE OF 2015 IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN...CONTINUES TO PROVIDE MANY CHALLENGES
EARLY THIS MORNING. 

THE PRIMARY PROBLEM REMAINS THE LOCATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER /LLCC/ OF THE DEPRESSION. NIGHTTIME INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
FROM THE HIMAWARI SATELLITE HAS BEEN USEFUL IN MONITORING THE
SHORT-TERM CHANGES IN THE EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE
APPARENT LLCC. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH HIGH-RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGERY,
THE CIRRUS CANOPY OVER THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO OBSCURE MOST OF THE 
LOWER-LEVEL CUMULUS AND TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT MIGHT HELP US
TO LOCATE THE LLCC. 

ONCE AGAIN...ALL OF THE SATELLITE FIX AGENCIES...PROVIDED POSITION
FIXES THAT ARE IN RELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY. THE ENVIRONMENTAL 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF NINE-C IS 23 KNOTS FROM 110 
DEGREES. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE LLCC 
IN A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...WE WILL MAINTAIN THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY ESTIMATE AT 30 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY IS AN UNCERTAIN 300/02 
KNOTS. AS WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...FORECAST TRACK GUIDANCE FOR 
NINE-C REMAINS UNRELIABLE. 

NEAR EQUATORIAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 30 DEGREES C...AS
WELL AS HIGH VALUES OF OCEAN HEAT CONTENT APPEAR TO BE MAJOR FACTORS
THAT MIGHT ULTIMATELY KEEP NINE-C ALIVE. HOWEVER...THE LATEST FORECAST
AGAIN INDICATES THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP SLOWLY...IF AT ALL...DUE TO 
THE STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. 

IF NINE-C AVOIDS DISSIPATION...IT IS FORECAST TO REACH TROPICAL STORM 
INTENSITY BY DAY 4 AS IT APPROACHES THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE. NOTE 
ALSO THAT THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO DELAY THE POTENTIAL CROSSING OF 
NINE-C INTO THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC UNTIL AROUND DAY 5.


Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Tropical Cyclone 09C

CPHC textual advisory
CPHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 06P (Ula)  

JTWC textual warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area