Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans
December 31, 2015Tropical Cyclone 06P (Ula) remains active…located about 122 NM southeast of Pago Pago
Tropical Depression 09C is now active…located about 1800 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii
PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone Ula
Tropical Cyclone 06P (Ula) remains active in the southwestern Pacific…and will continue strengthening
This TC was located about 122 NM southeast of Pago Pago…and has been moving west-southeastward at 06 knots.
According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows a more symmetric convective core with deep spiral cloud banding wrapping in from all quadrants. The animated enhanced infrared satellite loop has shown evidence of a developing pinhole eye feature.
Upper level analysis shows a favorable environment, with low wind shear and radial outflow.
TC 06P is expected to track westward, with favorable environmental conditions through 48 hours, supporting continued intensification.
The cyclone is forecast to intensify to 80 knots under these favorable conditions, although then weaken after 72 hours, and turn northward…meeting stronger wind shear and subsidence aloft.
Maximum surface winds at the JTWC advisory #3 were 55 knots…with gusts to 70 knots
PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments for Tropical Depression 09C
Tropical Depression 09C remains active in the far southwestern corner of the Central Pacific…staying away from land
This area is located about 1800 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii…moving west-northwestward at 2 mph.
According to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC): TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE-C...THE SIXTEENTH TROPICAL CYCLONE OF 2015 IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN...CONTINUES TO PROVIDE MANY CHALLENGES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE PRIMARY PROBLEM REMAINS THE LOCATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER /LLCC/ OF THE DEPRESSION. NIGHTTIME INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE HIMAWARI SATELLITE HAS BEEN USEFUL IN MONITORING THE SHORT-TERM CHANGES IN THE EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE APPARENT LLCC. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH HIGH-RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGERY, THE CIRRUS CANOPY OVER THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO OBSCURE MOST OF THE LOWER-LEVEL CUMULUS AND TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT MIGHT HELP US TO LOCATE THE LLCC. ONCE AGAIN...ALL OF THE SATELLITE FIX AGENCIES...PROVIDED POSITION FIXES THAT ARE IN RELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY. THE ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF NINE-C IS 23 KNOTS FROM 110 DEGREES. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE LLCC IN A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...WE WILL MAINTAIN THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE AT 30 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY IS AN UNCERTAIN 300/02 KNOTS. AS WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...FORECAST TRACK GUIDANCE FOR NINE-C REMAINS UNRELIABLE. NEAR EQUATORIAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 30 DEGREES C...AS WELL AS HIGH VALUES OF OCEAN HEAT CONTENT APPEAR TO BE MAJOR FACTORS THAT MIGHT ULTIMATELY KEEP NINE-C ALIVE. HOWEVER...THE LATEST FORECAST AGAIN INDICATES THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP SLOWLY...IF AT ALL...DUE TO THE STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. IF NINE-C AVOIDS DISSIPATION...IT IS FORECAST TO REACH TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY BY DAY 4 AS IT APPROACHES THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE. NOTE ALSO THAT THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO DELAY THE POTENTIAL CROSSING OF NINE-C INTO THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC UNTIL AROUND DAY 5.
Eastern North Pacific
The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary
Central North Pacific
The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary
Tropical Cyclone 09C
CPHC textual advisory
CPHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image
South Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 06P (Ula)
JTWC textual warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image
North Indian Ocean
There are no current tropical cyclones
South Indian Ocean
There are no current tropical cyclones
North Arabian Sea
There are no current tropical cyclones
