Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

January 15, 2016
  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    2 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Asosan, Japan

    2 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - SW of Birao, Vakaga - Central African Republic

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Diapaga, Tapoa - Burkina Faso

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Malakal, Upper Nile - South Sudan

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of Grafton, New South Wales - Australia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Katoomba, New South Wales - Australia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Batemans Bay, New South Wales - Australia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Chos Malal, Neuquén - Argentina

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 128km SSE of Pondaguitan, Philippines

    19 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Cyclone - Ambali

    4 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tropical Cyclone - Pawan

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - Western Indian-Antarctic Ridge

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Highsurf - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Highwind - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 63km NNE of Isangel, Vanuatu

    8 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Cyclone - Belna

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    9 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Winter Storm - Western, United States

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Tropical Depression - Kammuri

    10 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfires - El Quisco, Chile

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Central New Zealand

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southeastern New Zealand

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Flooding - Northern Philippines

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Northern and Central South Korea

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Eastern South Korea

    11 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Storms - Sri Lanka

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Scotland, United Kingdom

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Northeastern France

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southeastern Italy

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Northern Germany

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Banff, Yoho and Kootenay National Park, Canada

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Glacier National Park, Canada

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern United States

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern Alaska, United States

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Gunnison and Aspen, Colorado, United States

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Eastern New Mexico

    13 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Northern South Africa

    13 hours ago WATCH

  • Floods - Western and Northern DR Congo

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Bududa, Uganda

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Esperance, Western Australia - Australia

    14 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 171km E of Kurilsk, Russia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Nebraska City, NE Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - St. Joseph, MO--KS Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Richmond, MO Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Central City--Greenville, KY Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Charleston, MO Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Carmi, IL Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangeang Api, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Sironko, Uganda

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Cunene Province, Angola

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Northwest Territories, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Madiera, Portugal

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Western Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bolivia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Argentina

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northwestern Argentina

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Somalia and Kenya

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Djibouti City, Djibouti

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Uganda

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northwestern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - England, United Kingdom

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - South India

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Argentina

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Central Asia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Dengue Fever Outbreak - Pakistan

    2 weeks ago ADVISORY

  • Dengue Outbreak - Philippines

    3 months ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    2 days ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Etna, Italy

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo/Uganda

    5 months ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Western Wyoming, United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Southeastern Idaho, United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Northern Utah, United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Dengue Fever Outbreak - Republic of the Sudan

    1 week ago ADVISORY

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans
January 15, 2016

Remnants of former Tropical Cyclone 01C (Pali)…are now located about 1700 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii – Final Advisory

Tropical Cyclone 07P (Victor) is now active…located about 262 miles east of Pago Pago, American Samoa

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for now retired Tropical Cyclone 01C (Pali)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for now retired Tropical Cyclone 01C (Pali)

Former Tropical Depression 01C (Pali) is now retired…about 1700 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii.

Sustained winds as of the CPHC advisory #31 were 29 mph…with movement towards the southwest at 7 mph

Here’s a satellite image of this former tropical depression 

Here’s a near real time wind profile of now retired system…spinning in a counter-clockwise fashion in the northern hemisphere (with the Hawaiian Islands as a reference)

According to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii:

DATA FROM SATELLITE…AS WELL AS FROM LAST NIGHT/S SCATTEROMETER PASSES, AND VARIOUS MICROWAVE OVERPASSES…SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH PALI HAS BECOME HIGHLY DISRUPTED AND ELONGATED…AND IT IS NO LONGER POSSIBLE TO DEFINITIVELY LOCATE A CLOSED CENTER.

THUS…THE SYSTEM IS BEING DECLARED A REMNANT AT THIS TIME.

THE UW-CIMSS WIND SHEAR ANALYSES INDICATE THAT ABOUT 30 KNOTS OF UPPER LEVEL WIND CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.

THE MORE RELIABLE GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT IS LEFT OF PALI DISSIPATING ON THE EQUATOR… BUT SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT PALI COULD INSTEAD HEAD WESTWARD AND REGENERATE ONCE IT GETS AWAY FROM THE SHEAR IN A FEW DAYS.

THIS SEEMS VERY UNLIKELY…BUT THE DISTURBED AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON PALI UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

Former Hurricane Pali is the southernmost tropical cyclone to form in the central Pacific basin, developing at just 4.7 degrees north of the equator…very likely influenced by the warmer than average sea-surface temperatures associated with this strong El Niño.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone Victor

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone Victor

Tropical Cyclone 07P (Victor) is now active in the South Pacific Ocean

Here’s a satellite image of this Tropical cyclone…along with what the computer models are showing…and a near real time wind profile (spinning clockwise in the southern hemisphere)

This storm was located about 262 NM east of Pago Pago, American Samoa

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows formative cloud bands have slightly deepened and wrapped tighter into a better defined low level circulation center.

Environmental conditions are very favorable for intensification, with low 5-10 knot wind shear, good radial outflow from an upper level high pressure system centered over the top of the center, warm sea surface temperatures…and very high content.

These favorable conditions will support intensification over the next 72 hours, when it will reach 90 knots of sustained winds, with gusts to 110 knots.

In the extended forecast period, TC Victor will begin a slow weakening trend as it encounters increasing wind shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures. Model guidance is in good agreement with a generally southerly track through 36 hours, and then a pronounced spreading beyond that point.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #2 were 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots

 

Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Retired Tropical Cyclone 01C (Pali) (Final Advisory)

CPHC textual Advisory
CPHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 07P (Victor)

JTWC textual Warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area