Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans
December 22, 2015There are no active tropical cyclones in the Pacific and Indian Oceans…or adjacent seas
PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation…and three areas of tropical disturbance with a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.
There is an area of disturbed weather in the South Pacific Ocean…known as Invest 99P
Here is a satellite image of the area–and what the computer models are showing.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.
There is also an area of disturbed weather in the Western North Pacific Ocean…known as Invest 98W
Here is a satellite image of the area–and what the computer models are showing.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.
And, there is an area of disturbed weather in the South Indian Ocean…known as Invest 98S
Here is a satellite image of the area–and what the computer models are showing.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.
Eastern North Pacific
The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2016.
Central North Pacific
The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.
Western North Pacific
There are no current tropical cyclones
JTWC Significant Tropical Weather Advisory for the Western North Pacific Ocean (Issued Dec 22 2015 /06Z):
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.4N
108.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.3N 107.3E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM SOUTH
OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH DIMINISHING ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. A 220217Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED
A WEAKER WIND FIELD THAT HAS BECOME MORE ELONGATED SINCE THE LAST
PASS. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK DIVERGENT OUTFLOW AND MODERATE TO STRONG (20
TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE NO LONGER
DEVELOPING THIS DISTURBANCE INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO
THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AND THE WEAKENING IN THE OVERALL WIND
FIELD, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
South Pacific
There are no current tropical cyclones
JTWC Significant Tropical Weather Advisory for the South Pacific Ocean (Issued Dec 22 2015 /06Z):
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0S
136.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 138.3E, APPROXIMATELY 120 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
BROAD AREA OF CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH.
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS INCREASED, SPECIFICALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE, BUT THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO CONVERGENT FLOW. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY-
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VWS
PARTIALLY OFFSET BY GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
CONSOLIDATION OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA IN
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO THE BROAD AND DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
North Indian Ocean
There are no current tropical cyclones
South Indian Ocean
There are no current tropical cyclones
JTWC Significant Tropical Weather Advisory for the South Indian Ocean (Issued Dec 22 2015 /18Z):
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.7S
107.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.7S 107.7E, APPROXIMATELY 218 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A WEAKENED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. A
221404Z ASCAT METOP-A INDICATES 10-15 KNOT WINDS WITHIN THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, HOWEVER, THERE ARE 20-25 KNOT WINDS
WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY. GLOBAL MODELS
DO NOT INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
North Arabian Sea
There are no current tropical cyclones
