Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

December 30, 2015
Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans
December 30, 2015

Tropical Cyclone 06P (Ula) is active…located about 282 NM east-northeast of Pago Pago

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone Ula

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone Ula

Tropical Cyclone 06P (Ula) is now active in the southwestern Pacific…and will continue strengthening

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical cyclone…along with what the computer models are showing

This TC was located about 282 NM east-northeast of Pago Pago…and has been moving south-southeastward at 13 knots.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery depicts a rapidly consolidating, compact low level circulation center, with tightly curved convective cloud banding…wrapping into a central dense overcast. In addition, images show multiple convective bands wrapping into the center, which supports a small eye feature.

Upper level analysis shows low wind shear and near radial outflow, enhanced by a westerly wind flow to the south of the system.

TC 06P is expected to track poleward, and then turn westward after 12 hours. Thereafter, after 72 hours, the system should slow and begin to recurve southwestward…and encounter increasing wind shear.

The cyclone is forecast to intensify to 75 knots under favorable conditions, although then weaken after 72 hours due to those stronger winds aloft…and to cooler sea surface temperatures as well.

Maximum surface winds at the JTWC advisory #1 were 45 knots…with gusts to 55 knots

A Special Weather Statement from the NWS Pago Pago, AS:

TUTUILA-AUNUU-MANUA-SWAINS-
546 AM SST WED DEC 30 2015

...TROPICAL STORM ULA TRACKING SOUTH AS IT INTENSIFIES...

AT 215 AM SST WEDNESDAY...TROPICAL STORM ULA WAS LOCATED WITH
CENTER NEAR 14.4 SOUTH AND 166.6 WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF MANU`A OR 274 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TUTUILA. TROPICAL
STORM ULA IS STILL FORECASTED TO MOVE SOUTHWEST TODAY AS IT
INTENSIFIES INTO A HURRICANE CATEGORY 1 BY TONIGHT. LATEST
FORECASTS SHOW TROPICAL STORM ULA CLOSEST TO AMERICAN SAMOA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT PASSES SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF
THE TERRITORY. AT THIS TIME...WE DO NOT EXPECT STORM OR HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS TO IMPACT AMERICAN SAMOA. HOWEVER...AS WINDS TURN TO BECOME
MORE WESTERLY...WE DO EXPECT WINDS OF AT LEAST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF UP TO 55 MPH...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHEAST FACING SLOPES AS
WINDS ARE FUNNELED DOWNSLOPE LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY,
HEAVY SHOWERS WILL ONCE AGAIN AFFECT THE TERRITORY AS RAIN BANDS FROM
TROPICAL STORM ULA MOVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

WE ADVISE THE PUBLIC TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR YOUR NOAA WEATHER
RADIO AND LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR ANY UPDATES IN WATCHES/WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES FOR AMERICAN SAMOA.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation…and areas of tropical disturbance with low and medium chances of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours...along with TC 06P

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation…and areas of tropical disturbance with low and medium chances of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours…along with TC 06P


There continues to be an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 99W in the north Pacific Ocean…circled in orange above (upper right)

This area was located about 1115 NM east-southeast of Kwajalein Atoll…in the Marshall Islands / Here’s a satellite image of this area…along with what the computer models are showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows a slowly consolidating low level circulation center with persistent deep convection.

Upper level analysis shows a marginally favorable environment, with moderate southeasterly wind shear…and strong poleward diffluence aloft.

Global models present a mixed picture regarding development, although generally maintain a closed low level center, which tracks across the dateline in approximately 60 hours.

Maximum surface winds are estimated to be 20-25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is now upgraded to medium.

~~~ Meanwhile, there’s another area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 92P in the southwest Pacific Ocean…circled in yellow above (lower left)

This area was located about 370 NM north of Nadi, Fiji / Here’s a satellite image of this area…along with what the computer models are showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery depicts a symmetric area of deep convection associated with a broad low level circulation.

Upper level analysis shows a marginal environment along the leading edge of a deep trough of low pressure, with moderate to strong wind shear…offset by enhanced poleward outflow.

Maximum surface winds are estimated to be 20-25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.

 

Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2016.

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 06P (Ula)  

JTWC textual warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area