Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

December 30, 2015
  • Wildfire - NE of Bor, Jungoli - South Sudan

    4 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - N of Nkawkaw, Eastern - Ghana

    4 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Kuchinoerabujima, Japan

    4 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Winter Storm - Upper Midwestern, United States

    4 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - S of Ndele, Bamingui-Bangoran - Central African Republic

    4 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    3 minutes ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Asosan, Japan

    8 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfires - Victoria, Australia

    19 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    20 minutes ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southeastern, United States

    27 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Niquen Commune, Chile

    33 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    44 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 141km W of Abepura, Indonesia

    7 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Warner Robins, GA Region, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Upper Midwestern, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Shishaldin, United States

    2 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Cyclone - Tino

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Northeastern, United States

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central, United States

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - South Lyon--Howell, MI Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Taal, Philippines

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Northwestern, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Miami, OK Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Jackson, AL Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Osceola, AR Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Jamestown, NY Region, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Paducah, KY--IL Region, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.4 - 8km S of Indios, Puerto Rico

    1 week ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - E of Corumba, Mato Grosso do Sul - Brazil

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Winter Storm - Alaska, United States

    7 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Oconto, WI Region, United States

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Defiance, OH Region, United States

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Blountstown, FL Region, United States

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Watertown, NY Region, United States

    15 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 100km NE of Alotau, Papua New Guinea

    19 hours ago ADVISORY

  • High Winds - British Columbia, Canada

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Manitoba, Canada

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - New Brunswick, Canada

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - 166km E of Raoul Island, New Zealand

    21 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.3 - 178km ESE of Raoul Island, New Zealand

    21 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 124km SSW of Tual, Indonesia

    22 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Minneapolis--St. Paul, MN--WI Region, United States

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Florence, SC Region, United States

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Northwest Territories, Canada

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Nova Scotia, Canada

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Nunavut, Canada

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Northern Ontario, Canada

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Prince Edward Island, Canada

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southwestern South Africa

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Muscat, Oman

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Northern Rockes and Plains, United States

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Southwestern United States

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Germany

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Germany

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Finland

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northwestern Italy

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Central Switzerland

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - New South Wales, Australia

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Angol Commune, Chile

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northeastern Peru

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Southern Argentina

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Southern Brazil

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Mozambique, Malawi, and eastern Zambia

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Central Afghanistan

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Pakistan

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Mexico

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - England, United Kingdom

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Southern Switzerland

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Wales, United Kingdom

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southwestern Iran

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Northwestern United States

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Idaho, United States

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Wyoming, United States

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Utah, United States

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Montana, United States

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - California, United States

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Western Canada

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Brazil

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Samarinda City, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Northern India

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Waterton Lakes National Park, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Southern Quebec, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - South Australia, Australia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.9 - Ascension Island region

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo/Uganda

    7 months ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Chillán commune, Chile

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Central Chile

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storm - Northern Paraguay

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Cabo Delgado, Mozambique

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Glacier National Park, Canada

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Little Yoho National Park, Canada

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Banff, Yoho, Kootenay National Park, Canada

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Avalanches - Northern Pakistan

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - New South Wales, Australia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Northern India

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Northern India

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Zambezi Region, Nambia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northwestern Angola

    2 days ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Western Peru

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Zimbabwe and Mozambique

    2 days ago WATCH

  • Floods - Northern Madagascar

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Central Asia

    2 days ago WATCH

  • Winter Storms - Western and Southern Afghanistan

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nishinoshima, Japan

    3 days ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Krakatau, Indonesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus – China

    4 days ago INFORMATION

  • Measles Outbreak - Democratic Republic of the Congo

    1 week ago INFORMATION

  • Yellow Fever - Nigeria

    1 month ago ADVISORY

  • Dengue Outbreak - Philippines

    2 weeks ago INFORMATION

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans
December 30, 2015

Tropical Cyclone 06P (Ula) is active…located about 282 NM east-northeast of Pago Pago

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone Ula

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone Ula

Tropical Cyclone 06P (Ula) is now active in the southwestern Pacific…and will continue strengthening

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical cyclone…along with what the computer models are showing

This TC was located about 282 NM east-northeast of Pago Pago…and has been moving south-southeastward at 13 knots.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery depicts a rapidly consolidating, compact low level circulation center, with tightly curved convective cloud banding…wrapping into a central dense overcast. In addition, images show multiple convective bands wrapping into the center, which supports a small eye feature.

Upper level analysis shows low wind shear and near radial outflow, enhanced by a westerly wind flow to the south of the system.

TC 06P is expected to track poleward, and then turn westward after 12 hours. Thereafter, after 72 hours, the system should slow and begin to recurve southwestward…and encounter increasing wind shear.

The cyclone is forecast to intensify to 75 knots under favorable conditions, although then weaken after 72 hours due to those stronger winds aloft…and to cooler sea surface temperatures as well.

Maximum surface winds at the JTWC advisory #1 were 45 knots…with gusts to 55 knots

A Special Weather Statement from the NWS Pago Pago, AS:

TUTUILA-AUNUU-MANUA-SWAINS-
546 AM SST WED DEC 30 2015

...TROPICAL STORM ULA TRACKING SOUTH AS IT INTENSIFIES...

AT 215 AM SST WEDNESDAY...TROPICAL STORM ULA WAS LOCATED WITH
CENTER NEAR 14.4 SOUTH AND 166.6 WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF MANU`A OR 274 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TUTUILA. TROPICAL
STORM ULA IS STILL FORECASTED TO MOVE SOUTHWEST TODAY AS IT
INTENSIFIES INTO A HURRICANE CATEGORY 1 BY TONIGHT. LATEST
FORECASTS SHOW TROPICAL STORM ULA CLOSEST TO AMERICAN SAMOA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT PASSES SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF
THE TERRITORY. AT THIS TIME...WE DO NOT EXPECT STORM OR HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS TO IMPACT AMERICAN SAMOA. HOWEVER...AS WINDS TURN TO BECOME
MORE WESTERLY...WE DO EXPECT WINDS OF AT LEAST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF UP TO 55 MPH...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHEAST FACING SLOPES AS
WINDS ARE FUNNELED DOWNSLOPE LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY,
HEAVY SHOWERS WILL ONCE AGAIN AFFECT THE TERRITORY AS RAIN BANDS FROM
TROPICAL STORM ULA MOVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

WE ADVISE THE PUBLIC TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR YOUR NOAA WEATHER
RADIO AND LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR ANY UPDATES IN WATCHES/WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES FOR AMERICAN SAMOA.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation…and areas of tropical disturbance with low and medium chances of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours...along with TC 06P

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation…and areas of tropical disturbance with low and medium chances of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours…along with TC 06P


There continues to be an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 99W in the north Pacific Ocean…circled in orange above (upper right)

This area was located about 1115 NM east-southeast of Kwajalein Atoll…in the Marshall Islands / Here’s a satellite image of this area…along with what the computer models are showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows a slowly consolidating low level circulation center with persistent deep convection.

Upper level analysis shows a marginally favorable environment, with moderate southeasterly wind shear…and strong poleward diffluence aloft.

Global models present a mixed picture regarding development, although generally maintain a closed low level center, which tracks across the dateline in approximately 60 hours.

Maximum surface winds are estimated to be 20-25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is now upgraded to medium.

~~~ Meanwhile, there’s another area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 92P in the southwest Pacific Ocean…circled in yellow above (lower left)

This area was located about 370 NM north of Nadi, Fiji / Here’s a satellite image of this area…along with what the computer models are showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery depicts a symmetric area of deep convection associated with a broad low level circulation.

Upper level analysis shows a marginal environment along the leading edge of a deep trough of low pressure, with moderate to strong wind shear…offset by enhanced poleward outflow.

Maximum surface winds are estimated to be 20-25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.

 

Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2016.

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 06P (Ula)  

JTWC textual warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area