Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

January 6, 2016
  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    2 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Asosan, Japan

    2 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - SW of Birao, Vakaga - Central African Republic

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Diapaga, Tapoa - Burkina Faso

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Malakal, Upper Nile - South Sudan

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of Grafton, New South Wales - Australia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Katoomba, New South Wales - Australia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Batemans Bay, New South Wales - Australia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Chos Malal, Neuquén - Argentina

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 128km SSE of Pondaguitan, Philippines

    19 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Cyclone - Ambali

    4 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tropical Cyclone - Pawan

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - Western Indian-Antarctic Ridge

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Highsurf - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Highwind - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 63km NNE of Isangel, Vanuatu

    8 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Cyclone - Belna

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    9 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Winter Storm - Western, United States

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Tropical Depression - Kammuri

    10 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfires - El Quisco, Chile

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Central New Zealand

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southeastern New Zealand

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Flooding - Northern Philippines

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Northern and Central South Korea

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Eastern South Korea

    11 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Storms - Sri Lanka

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Scotland, United Kingdom

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Northeastern France

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southeastern Italy

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Northern Germany

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Banff, Yoho and Kootenay National Park, Canada

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Glacier National Park, Canada

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern United States

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern Alaska, United States

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Gunnison and Aspen, Colorado, United States

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Eastern New Mexico

    13 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Northern South Africa

    13 hours ago WATCH

  • Floods - Western and Northern DR Congo

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Bududa, Uganda

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Esperance, Western Australia - Australia

    14 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 171km E of Kurilsk, Russia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Nebraska City, NE Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - St. Joseph, MO--KS Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Richmond, MO Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Central City--Greenville, KY Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Charleston, MO Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Carmi, IL Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangeang Api, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Sironko, Uganda

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Cunene Province, Angola

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Northwest Territories, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Madiera, Portugal

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Western Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bolivia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Argentina

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northwestern Argentina

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Somalia and Kenya

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Djibouti City, Djibouti

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Uganda

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northwestern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - England, United Kingdom

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - South India

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Argentina

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Central Asia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Dengue Fever Outbreak - Pakistan

    2 weeks ago ADVISORY

  • Dengue Outbreak - Philippines

    3 months ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    2 days ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Etna, Italy

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo/Uganda

    5 months ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Western Wyoming, United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Southeastern Idaho, United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Northern Utah, United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Dengue Fever Outbreak - Republic of the Sudan

    1 week ago ADVISORY

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans
January 6, 2016

Tropical Cyclone 06P (Ula) remains active…located about 178 NM southwest of Suva, Fiji

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone Ula

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone Ula

Tropical Cyclone 06P (Ula) remains active in the southwestern Pacific…although remains on a steady weakening trend

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical cyclone…along with what the computer models are showing

This TC was located about 178 NM southwest of Suva, Fiji…and has been moving northwestward at 05 knots.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows convection has diminished and become more shallow, although still flaring.

Upper level analysis indicates that this tropical cyclone is in an area of low wind shear, although the poleward outflow channel that was sustaining convection…has decreased.

A trough of low pressure digging in from the southwest will limit any further development. Meanwhile, dry air is intruding from the southwest and wrapping into the center. At the same time, TC Ula is tracking over warm sea water, which will help to slow down its decay.

By the 24 hour point, TC 06P will dissipate due to the negative effects of environmental conditions. At the same time, there is a possibility of regeneration beyond 24 hours…as indicated by weather intensity aids.

Maximum surface winds at the JTWC advisory #15 were 35 knots…with gusts to 45 knots

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation…and a tropical disturbance with a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation…and a tropical disturbance with a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours

Meanwhile, there’s an out of season area of disturbed weather far to the southwest of Hawaii, circled in orange above, being referred to as Invest 90C…located about 1550 miles southwest of Honolulu

Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance…along with what the computer models are showing

According to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii, strong thunderstorms continue to develop in association with a slow moving area of low pressure.

Although a significant increase has not occurred over the past several hours, environment conditions appear favorable for additional development over the next couple of days…as the system drifts toward the north and northwest.

There doesn’t appear to be any threat to the Hawaiian Islands at this time.

Formation chance through the next 48 hours is a medium 50%.


Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1.)  Strong thunderstorms continue to develop in association with a slow-moving area of low pressure about 1550 miles southwest of Honolulu Hawaii. Although a significant increase in organization has not occurred over the past several hours, environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development over the next couple of days as the system drifts toward the north and northwest.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 50 percent.

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 06P (Ula)  

JTWC textual warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area