Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

January 6, 2016
  • Winter Storm - Upper Midwestern, United States

    10 minutes ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Central, United States

    14 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    15 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    35 minutes ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Northern Rockies and Plains, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    1 hour ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 141km W of Abepura, Indonesia

    6 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - Warner Robins, GA Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Floods - Upper Midwestern, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Bor, Jungoli - South Sudan

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - N of Nkawkaw, Eastern - Ghana

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - S of Ndele, Bamingui-Bangoran - Central African Republic

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Shishaldin, United States

    1 hour ago WATCH

  • Tropical Cyclone - Tino

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Victoria, Australia

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Northeastern, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Niquen Commune, Chile

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - South Lyon--Howell, MI Region, United States

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Taal, Philippines

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Northwestern, United States

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Miami, OK Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Jackson, AL Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Osceola, AR Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Kuchinoerabujima, Japan

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Asosan, Japan

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Jamestown, NY Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Paducah, KY--IL Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.4 - 8km S of Indios, Puerto Rico

    1 week ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - E of Corumba, Mato Grosso do Sul - Brazil

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Winter Storm - Alaska, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Oconto, WI Region, United States

    7 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Defiance, OH Region, United States

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Blountstown, FL Region, United States

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Watertown, NY Region, United States

    14 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    15 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 100km NE of Alotau, Papua New Guinea

    18 hours ago ADVISORY

  • High Winds - British Columbia, Canada

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Manitoba, Canada

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - New Brunswick, Canada

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - 166km E of Raoul Island, New Zealand

    20 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Southeastern, United States

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.3 - 178km ESE of Raoul Island, New Zealand

    20 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 124km SSW of Tual, Indonesia

    21 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Minneapolis--St. Paul, MN--WI Region, United States

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Florence, SC Region, United States

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Northwest Territories, Canada

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Nova Scotia, Canada

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Nunavut, Canada

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Northern Ontario, Canada

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Prince Edward Island, Canada

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southwestern South Africa

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Muscat, Oman

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Northern Rockes and Plains, United States

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Southwestern United States

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Germany

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Germany

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Finland

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northwestern Italy

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Central Switzerland

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - New South Wales, Australia

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Angol Commune, Chile

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northeastern Peru

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Southern Argentina

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Southern Brazil

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Mozambique, Malawi, and eastern Zambia

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Central Afghanistan

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Pakistan

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Mexico

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - England, United Kingdom

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Southern Switzerland

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Wales, United Kingdom

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southwestern Iran

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Northwestern United States

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Idaho, United States

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Wyoming, United States

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Utah, United States

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Montana, United States

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - California, United States

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Western Canada

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central Peru

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Peru

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Brazil

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Samarinda City, Indonesia

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Northern India

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Waterton Lakes National Park, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Southern Quebec, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - South Australia, Australia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.9 - Ascension Island region

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo/Uganda

    7 months ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Chillán commune, Chile

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Central Chile

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storm - Northern Paraguay

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Cabo Delgado, Mozambique

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Glacier National Park, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Little Yoho National Park, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Banff, Yoho, Kootenay National Park, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanches - Northern Pakistan

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - New South Wales, Australia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Northern India

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Northern India

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Zambezi Region, Nambia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northwestern Angola

    2 days ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Western Peru

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Zimbabwe and Mozambique

    2 days ago WATCH

  • Floods - Northern Madagascar

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Central Asia

    2 days ago WATCH

  • Winter Storms - Western and Southern Afghanistan

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nishinoshima, Japan

    3 days ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Krakatau, Indonesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus – China

    4 days ago INFORMATION

  • Measles Outbreak - Democratic Republic of the Congo

    1 week ago INFORMATION

  • Yellow Fever - Nigeria

    1 month ago ADVISORY

  • Dengue Outbreak - Philippines

    2 weeks ago INFORMATION

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans
January 6, 2016

Tropical Cyclone 06P (Ula) remains active…located about 178 NM southwest of Suva, Fiji

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone Ula

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone Ula

Tropical Cyclone 06P (Ula) remains active in the southwestern Pacific…although remains on a steady weakening trend

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical cyclone…along with what the computer models are showing

This TC was located about 178 NM southwest of Suva, Fiji…and has been moving northwestward at 05 knots.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows convection has diminished and become more shallow, although still flaring.

Upper level analysis indicates that this tropical cyclone is in an area of low wind shear, although the poleward outflow channel that was sustaining convection…has decreased.

A trough of low pressure digging in from the southwest will limit any further development. Meanwhile, dry air is intruding from the southwest and wrapping into the center. At the same time, TC Ula is tracking over warm sea water, which will help to slow down its decay.

By the 24 hour point, TC 06P will dissipate due to the negative effects of environmental conditions. At the same time, there is a possibility of regeneration beyond 24 hours…as indicated by weather intensity aids.

Maximum surface winds at the JTWC advisory #15 were 35 knots…with gusts to 45 knots

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation…and a tropical disturbance with a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation…and a tropical disturbance with a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours

Meanwhile, there’s an out of season area of disturbed weather far to the southwest of Hawaii, circled in orange above, being referred to as Invest 90C…located about 1550 miles southwest of Honolulu

Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance…along with what the computer models are showing

According to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii, strong thunderstorms continue to develop in association with a slow moving area of low pressure.

Although a significant increase has not occurred over the past several hours, environment conditions appear favorable for additional development over the next couple of days…as the system drifts toward the north and northwest.

There doesn’t appear to be any threat to the Hawaiian Islands at this time.

Formation chance through the next 48 hours is a medium 50%.


Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1.)  Strong thunderstorms continue to develop in association with a slow-moving area of low pressure about 1550 miles southwest of Honolulu Hawaii. Although a significant increase in organization has not occurred over the past several hours, environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development over the next couple of days as the system drifts toward the north and northwest.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 50 percent.

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 06P (Ula)  

JTWC textual warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area