Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

January 8, 2016
  • Wildfire - SW of Birao, Vakaga - Central African Republic

    5 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Malakal, Upper Nile - South Sudan

    5 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfires - Queensland, Australia

    6 minutes ago WATCH

  • Wildfire - N of Ravensthorpe, Western Australia - Australia

    6 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - N of Ravensthorpe, Western Australia - Australia

    6 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of Grafton, New South Wales - Australia

    6 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Katoomba, New South Wales - Australia

    6 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Batemans Bay, New South Wales - Australia

    6 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    4 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Sangeang Api, Indonesia

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    11 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    5 hours ago WATCH

  • Wildfire - W of Juan Jose Castelli, Chaco - Argentina

    28 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Chos Malal, Neuquén - Argentina

    28 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    36 minutes ago WARNING

  • Tropical Cyclone - Ambali

    38 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Highsurf - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Highsurf - Warning (Hawaiian Islands)

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Alaska, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Asosan, Japan

    2 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Winter Storm - Western, United States

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Tropical Cyclone - Belna

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Northern Rockies and Plains, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Tropical Cyclone - Pawan

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Nebraska City, NE Region, United States

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SW of Diapaga, Tapoa - Burkina Faso

    12 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Flood - Carmi, IL Region, United States

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - New South Wales, Australia

    17 hours ago WATCH

  • Floods - Eastern Brazil

    17 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Cibitoke Province, Burundi

    17 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern Angola

    17 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Eastern Wyoming, United States

    17 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Sierra Nevada, California, United States

    17 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada

    17 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Little Yoho National Park, Canada

    17 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Southern Germany

    17 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Southeastern Germany

    17 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Southern Argentina

    17 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Uganda

    17 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Djibouti City, Djibouti

    17 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Bududa, Uganda

    17 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Sironko, Uganda

    17 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Cunene Province, Angola

    17 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 164km WNW of Hihifo, Tonga

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Drought - Eastern South Korea

    17 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Storms - Southeastern New Zealand

    17 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Central New Zealand

    17 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - England, United Kingdom

    17 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Banff, Yoho and Kootenay National Park, Canada

    17 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Gunnison and Aspen, Colorado, United States

    17 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Northern Utah, United States

    17 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Western Wyoming, United States

    17 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Southeastern Idaho, United States

    17 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Glacier National Park, Canada

    17 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Valparaiso Municipality, Chile

    17 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bolivia

    17 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Western Peru

    17 hours ago WARNING

  • Flooding - Northern Philippines

    18 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - South India

    18 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.7 - 173km NW of Hihifo, Tonga

    22 hours ago WATCH

  • Flood - Mitchell, SD Region, United States

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 63km NNE of Isangel, Vanuatu

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Drought - Southeastern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern Alaska, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands

    1 day ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Eastern New Mexico

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Western and Northern DR Congo

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Peru

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Somalia and Kenya

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Central Asia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Dengue Fever Outbreak - Pakistan

    2 weeks ago ADVISORY

  • Dengue Outbreak - Philippines

    3 months ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    3 days ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Etna, Italy

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo/Uganda

    5 months ago WARNING

  • Dengue Fever Outbreak - Republic of the Sudan

    1 week ago ADVISORY

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans
January 8, 2016

Tropical Cyclone 06P (Ula) remains active…located about 240 NM west of Suva, Fiji

Tropical Cyclone 01C (Pali) remains active…located about 1350 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone Ula

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone Ula

Tropical Cyclone 06P (Ula) remains active in the southwestern Pacific…on a strengthening trend

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical cyclone…along with what the computer models are showing

This TC was located about 240 NM west of Suva, Fiji…and has been moving west-northwestward at a slow paced 02 knots.

Here’s a near real time
wind profile of system…of course spinning in a clockwise fashion in the southern hemisphere

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows deep convection over the low level circulation center has been increasing over the past 6-hours.

Sea surface temperatures remain weakly favorable, as TC 06P tracks slowly westward within a weak steering environment. During the next 24-36 hours this system will move into a stronger steering environment…providing a slow period of development. This in turn will bring the sustained winds up to 65 knots by the 24 hour point…continuing through 48 hours.

Thereafter, decreasing sea surface temperatures, and a less favorable upper level pattern will cause a slow weakening trend to develop. In the later portions of the forecast, these influence will become more pronounced.

Maximum surface winds at the JTWC advisory #19 were 55 knots…with gusts to 70 knots

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 01C (Pali)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 01C (Pali)

Tropical Storm 01C Pali remains active in the far southwest corner of the central Pacific Ocean…about 1350 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii

Here’s a satellite image of this storm…along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s a near real time wind profile of system…spinning in a counter-clockwise fashion in the northern hemisphere (with the Hawaiian Islands as a reference)

After a record setting hurricane season in 2015, the central Pacific now has an out of season tropical storm spinning.  TS 01C’s activation yesterday breaks by six days the record for earliest formation of a tropical cyclone in the Central Pacific…set by Tropical Storm Winona on January 13, 1989.

A large area of showers and thunderstorms associated with this system is located over some of the warmest waters in the central Pacific…associated with this powerful El Niño event.

Only two other tropical storms have been active in January across the central and northeast Pacific…since records began back in 1949.

According to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii:

DEEP CONVECTION INCREASED AROUND THE CENTER OF PALI OVERNIGHT.  

ALTHOUGH THERE WAS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE CENTER LOCATIONS,
THE INTENSITY WILL BE RAISED TO 55 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY.

PALI IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...335 DEGREES...AT 9 KNOTS.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A NEARLY WEST TO EAST
ORIENTED...LOW LATITUDE TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS THE PRODUCT OF
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG...LOW LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS BEING DRIVEN IN THE
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE AND EASTERLY WINDS CREATED BY A DEEP RIDGE
ROUGHLY CENTERED ALONG 20N. 

THE SOMEWHAT TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A TURN 
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A STEADY DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION 
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS 
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LATITUDE TROUGH. 

MODEL SPREAD INCREASES GREATLY ON SUNDAY AND BEYOND...SHOWING A 
SHARP EQUATORWARD TURN BACK INTO THE TROUGH. THE FORECAST TRACK 
CONTINUES TO BE CLOSE TO THE PRIOR ADVISORY AND REMAINS ROUGHLY 
DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...THOUGH A BIT SLOWER 
IN THE EQUATORWARD TURN ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE.

BEING IN THE DEEP TROPICS...OCEAN TEMPERATURES ARE SUFFICIENTLY WARM
FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 20 TO 30 
KNOTS AT THIS TIME...AND CONTINUED INTERACTION WITH THE LOW LEVEL 
TROUGH AND...TO SOME DEGREE...WIND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 
WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS DOWN 
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WHICH CONTAINS STEADY AND 
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD THROUGH DAY FIVE.


Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Tropical Cyclone 01C (Pali)

CPHC textual Advisory
CPHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 06P (Ula)  

JTWC textual warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area