Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

January 11, 2016
  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    10 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    4 hours ago WATCH

  • Highsurf - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    17 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Highsurf - Warning (Hawaiian Islands)

    17 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangeang Api, Indonesia

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    3 hours ago WATCH

  • Winter Storm - Alaska, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Asosan, Japan

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - SW of Birao, Vakaga - Central African Republic

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Malakal, Upper Nile - South Sudan

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - N of Ravensthorpe, Western Australia - Australia

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - N of Ravensthorpe, Western Australia - Australia

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of Grafton, New South Wales - Australia

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Katoomba, New South Wales - Australia

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Batemans Bay, New South Wales - Australia

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Winter Storm - Western, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Queensland, Australia

    1 hour ago WATCH

  • Wildfire - W of Juan Jose Castelli, Chaco - Argentina

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Chos Malal, Neuquén - Argentina

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tropical Cyclone - Belna

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Northern Rockies and Plains, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Esperance, Western Australia - Australia

    4 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tropical Cyclone - Pawan

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Tropical Cyclone - Ambali

    10 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Flood - Nebraska City, NE Region, United States

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SW of Diapaga, Tapoa - Burkina Faso

    10 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Flood - Carmi, IL Region, United States

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - New South Wales, Australia

    16 hours ago WATCH

  • Floods - Eastern Brazil

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Cibitoke Province, Burundi

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern Angola

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Eastern Wyoming, United States

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Sierra Nevada, California, United States

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Little Yoho National Park, Canada

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Southern Germany

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Southeastern Germany

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Southern Argentina

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Uganda

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Djibouti City, Djibouti

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Bududa, Uganda

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Sironko, Uganda

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Cunene Province, Angola

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 164km WNW of Hihifo, Tonga

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Drought - Eastern South Korea

    16 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Storms - Southeastern New Zealand

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Central New Zealand

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - England, United Kingdom

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Banff, Yoho and Kootenay National Park, Canada

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Gunnison and Aspen, Colorado, United States

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Northern Utah, United States

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Western Wyoming, United States

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Southeastern Idaho, United States

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Glacier National Park, Canada

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Valparaiso Municipality, Chile

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bolivia

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Western Peru

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Flooding - Northern Philippines

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - South India

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.7 - 173km NW of Hihifo, Tonga

    21 hours ago WATCH

  • Flood - Mitchell, SD Region, United States

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 63km NNE of Isangel, Vanuatu

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Drought - Southeastern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern Alaska, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands

    1 day ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Eastern New Mexico

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Western and Northern DR Congo

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Peru

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Somalia and Kenya

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Central Asia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Dengue Fever Outbreak - Pakistan

    2 weeks ago ADVISORY

  • Dengue Outbreak - Philippines

    3 months ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    3 days ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Etna, Italy

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo/Uganda

    5 months ago WARNING

  • Dengue Fever Outbreak - Republic of the Sudan

    1 week ago ADVISORY

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans
January 11, 2016

Tropical Cyclone 06P (Ula) remains active…located about 249 NM east-southeast of Noumea, New Caledonia

Tropical Cyclone 01C (Pali) remains active…located about 1345 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone Ula

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone Ula

Tropical Cyclone 06P (Ula) remains active in the southwestern Pacific, on a weakening trend, after becoming the first category 4 storm of 2016 on Sunday…reaching 130 mph to the east-northeast of New Caledonia

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical cyclone…along with what the computer models are showing – Along with a NASA image taken today

This TC was located about 249 NM east-southeast of New Caledonia…and has been moving southward at 11 knots.

Here’s a near real time
wind profile of system…spinning in a clockwise fashion in the southern hemisphere

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows a deteriorating convective signature, and a cloud covered and indistinct center.

TC 06P is moving into a very unfavorable environment, with moderate to high wind shear, and cooler sea surface temperatures.

During the next 12 hours this system will rapidly accelerate to the southeast. Wind shear will quickly increase, and sea surface temperatures will continue to decrease…causing a quick weakening trend. TC Ula will completely dissipate by the end of the forecast period, as it interacts with the mid-latitude westerly flow.

Maximum surface winds at the JTWC advisory #25 were 90 knots…with gusts to 110 knots

New Caledonia remained under a Yellow Alert for high ocean swells today…and is forecast to move north of New Zealand tomorrow.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 01C (Pali)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 01C (Pali)

Tropical Storm 01C (Pali) remains active in the far southwest corner of the central Pacific Ocean…about 1345 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii

Here’s a satellite image of this storm…along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s a near real time wind profile of system…spinning in a counter-clockwise fashion in the northern hemisphere (with the Hawaiian Islands as a reference)

A large area of showers and thunderstorms associated with this system is located over some of the warmest waters in the central Pacific…associated with this powerful El Niño event.

Only two other tropical storms have been active in January across the central and northeast Pacific…since records began back in 1949.

According to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii:

DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY RECENT MICROWAVE OR SCATTEROMETER PASSES OVER THE CORE OF PALI…THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE CURRENT LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM.

THE TRANSIENT WARM SPOTS THAT HAD BEEN OBSERVED LAST EVENING HAVE DISAPPEARED.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE APPARENT CENTER ACCORDING TO THE LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY…SO WE ASSUME PALI HAS NOT WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE LATEST ESTIMATES OF ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF PALI WERE 10 TO 15 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH. 

PALI IS A RATHER SMALL CYCLONE AT A RELATIVELY LOW LATITUDE. THERE ARE ALSO NO OBVIOUS LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC FORCING SYSTEMS THAT MIGHT CAUSE PALI TO BEGIN ACCELERATING AWAY FROM ITS CURRENT LOCATION.

THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF AN EAST-NORTHEAST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH NEAR LATITUDE 22N…AND WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE EQUATOR.

THE LATEST RELIABLE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING PALI CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS…THEN CURVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN THE SOUTH FROM 24-36 HOURS. AFTER THAT…THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. 

NOTE THAT THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO KEEP PALI WELL EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE THROUGH DAY 5. SINCE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF PALI… CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES…HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND RELATIVELY LOW WIND SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.

THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED DOWN A BIT DUE TO THE LOWER INITIAL INTENSITY. TS PALI MAY INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS…SO WE HAVE KEPT THIS TREND IN THE UPDATED FORECAST.

AFTER THAT…THE LATEST FORECAST WEAKENS PALI SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BY 48 HOURS. THE DAYS 4 AND 5 FORECASTS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER NOW SINCE WE ARE NOT SENDING PALI AS CLOSE TO THE EQUATOR AS EARLIER FORECASTS INDICATED.


Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Tropical Cyclone 01C (Pali)

CPHC textual Advisory
CPHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 06P (Ula)  

JTWC textual warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area