Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

January 11, 2016
  • Wildfire - NE of Pine Creek, Northern Territory - Australia

    11 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    13 minutes ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central, United States

    31 minutes ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    31 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SE of Champoton, Campeche - Mexico

    49 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Floods - Southeastern, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - South Boston, VA Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - Traverse City, MI Region, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.1 - 79 km NW of Port-Vila, Vanuatu

    6 hours ago WATCH

  • Flood - Davenport, IA--IL Region, United States

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Flood - Hutchinson, KS Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Osceola, AR Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Paris, TN Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Pocahontas, AR Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Roanoke Rapids, NC Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Miami, OK Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Klyuchevskoy, Russia

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Asosan, Japan

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    5 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Karymsky, Russia

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.4 - 89 km SSW of Merizo Village, Guam

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 2 km NW of Bagulin, Philippines

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.9 - 121 km SE of ‘Ohonua, Tonga

    6 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.4 - 784 km SE of Baie aux Huîtres, Mauritius

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.8 - 702 km S of ‘Ohonua, Tonga

    6 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 14 km WNW of Ambunti, Papua New Guinea

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 2406 km SW of Edinburgh of the Seven Seas, Saint Helena

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 180 km SSW of Gizo, Solomon Islands

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - 167 km ESE of San Jose Village, Northern Mariana Islands

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 17 km SSE of Suklayin, Philippines

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 12 km SSW of Kakching, India

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 92 km NNW of Port-Vila, Vanuatu

    6 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 91 km NW of Port-Vila, Vanuatu

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 96 km NW of Port-Vila, Vanuatu

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - 12 km E of Hirara, Japan

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 3 km NNW of Dogonbadan, Iran

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.3 - 32 km ESE of Mina, Nevada

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - 732 km WNW of Hanga Roa, Chile

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 92 km S of Néa Anatolí, Greece

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 27 km W of Foxton, New Zealand

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - 459 km ENE of Kuril’sk, Russia

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.9 - 1149 km S of Edinburgh of the Seven Seas, Saint Helena

    6 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 29 km WNW of Foxton, New Zealand

    6 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 167 km SE of Katsuura, Japan

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 107 km SW of La Esperanza (El Zapotal), Mexico

    6 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - 379 km SSE of Shimoda, Japan

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 6.1 - 171 km ESE of La Playa, Mexico

    6 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - 66 km E of Puente Alto, Chile

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.3 - 81 km S of Néa Anatolí, Greece

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 358 km ESE of Isangel, Vanuatu

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 2395 km SW of Edinburgh of the Seven Seas, Saint Helena

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 641 km NNE of Port Mathurin, Mauritius

    6 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - 295 km WNW of Tofino, Canada

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.3 - 279 km ENE of Lospalos, Timor Leste

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 87 km NNE of Nago, Japan

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 194 km SSW of Padang, Indonesia

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 58 km SSE of Ierápetra, Greece

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    8 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Central Honduras

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bangui, Central African Republic

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - India

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Mexico

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Mexico

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Southeastern Canada

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Quebec, Canada

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northeastern India

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Peninsular Malaysia

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - East Kalimantan, Indonesia

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    12 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    15 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Mitchell, SD Region, United States

    15 hours ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Flood - Nebraska City, NE Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Caruthersville, MO Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern Africa

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Uganda

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Somalia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern Madagascar

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Kenya

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Ethiopia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - DR Congo

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Mariana Islands

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Marshall Islands

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northern Vietnam

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - West Sulawesi, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - South Sulawesi, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - East Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - South Kalimantan, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Ebeko, Russia

    2 days ago ADVISORY

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Storms - Guatemala

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Tornado - Sancti Spiritus, Cuba

    2 days ago INFORMATION

  • Floods - Central Region, Cuba

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - India

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Yellow Fever - Nigeria

    5 months ago ADVISORY

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo/Uganda

    11 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Measles Outbreak - Democratic Republic of the Congo

    4 months ago INFORMATION

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans
January 11, 2016

Tropical Cyclone 06P (Ula) remains active…located about 249 NM east-southeast of Noumea, New Caledonia

Tropical Cyclone 01C (Pali) remains active…located about 1345 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone Ula

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone Ula

Tropical Cyclone 06P (Ula) remains active in the southwestern Pacific, on a weakening trend, after becoming the first category 4 storm of 2016 on Sunday…reaching 130 mph to the east-northeast of New Caledonia

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical cyclone…along with what the computer models are showing – Along with a NASA image taken today

This TC was located about 249 NM east-southeast of New Caledonia…and has been moving southward at 11 knots.

Here’s a near real time
wind profile of system…spinning in a clockwise fashion in the southern hemisphere

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows a deteriorating convective signature, and a cloud covered and indistinct center.

TC 06P is moving into a very unfavorable environment, with moderate to high wind shear, and cooler sea surface temperatures.

During the next 12 hours this system will rapidly accelerate to the southeast. Wind shear will quickly increase, and sea surface temperatures will continue to decrease…causing a quick weakening trend. TC Ula will completely dissipate by the end of the forecast period, as it interacts with the mid-latitude westerly flow.

Maximum surface winds at the JTWC advisory #25 were 90 knots…with gusts to 110 knots

New Caledonia remained under a Yellow Alert for high ocean swells today…and is forecast to move north of New Zealand tomorrow.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 01C (Pali)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 01C (Pali)

Tropical Storm 01C (Pali) remains active in the far southwest corner of the central Pacific Ocean…about 1345 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii

Here’s a satellite image of this storm…along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s a near real time wind profile of system…spinning in a counter-clockwise fashion in the northern hemisphere (with the Hawaiian Islands as a reference)

A large area of showers and thunderstorms associated with this system is located over some of the warmest waters in the central Pacific…associated with this powerful El Niño event.

Only two other tropical storms have been active in January across the central and northeast Pacific…since records began back in 1949.

According to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii:

DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY RECENT MICROWAVE OR SCATTEROMETER PASSES OVER THE CORE OF PALI…THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE CURRENT LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM.

THE TRANSIENT WARM SPOTS THAT HAD BEEN OBSERVED LAST EVENING HAVE DISAPPEARED.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE APPARENT CENTER ACCORDING TO THE LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY…SO WE ASSUME PALI HAS NOT WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE LATEST ESTIMATES OF ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF PALI WERE 10 TO 15 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH. 

PALI IS A RATHER SMALL CYCLONE AT A RELATIVELY LOW LATITUDE. THERE ARE ALSO NO OBVIOUS LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC FORCING SYSTEMS THAT MIGHT CAUSE PALI TO BEGIN ACCELERATING AWAY FROM ITS CURRENT LOCATION.

THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF AN EAST-NORTHEAST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH NEAR LATITUDE 22N…AND WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE EQUATOR.

THE LATEST RELIABLE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING PALI CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS…THEN CURVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN THE SOUTH FROM 24-36 HOURS. AFTER THAT…THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. 

NOTE THAT THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO KEEP PALI WELL EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE THROUGH DAY 5. SINCE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF PALI… CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES…HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND RELATIVELY LOW WIND SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.

THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED DOWN A BIT DUE TO THE LOWER INITIAL INTENSITY. TS PALI MAY INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS…SO WE HAVE KEPT THIS TREND IN THE UPDATED FORECAST.

AFTER THAT…THE LATEST FORECAST WEAKENS PALI SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BY 48 HOURS. THE DAYS 4 AND 5 FORECASTS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER NOW SINCE WE ARE NOT SENDING PALI AS CLOSE TO THE EQUATOR AS EARLIER FORECASTS INDICATED.


Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Tropical Cyclone 01C (Pali)

CPHC textual Advisory
CPHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 06P (Ula)  

JTWC textual warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area