Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

January 12, 2016
  • Volcano - Sangeang Api, Indonesia

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    3 hours ago WATCH

  • Flood - Huron, SD Region, United States

    12 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    15 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Santa Maria, Guatemala

    15 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SE of Wa, Upper West - Ghana

    44 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfires - Western Australia, Australia

    47 minutes ago WATCH

  • Winter Storm - Northwestern, United States

    52 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Highsurf - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Highsurf - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Asosan, Japan

    3 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Winter Storm - Northern Rockies and Plains, United States

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Southwestern, United States

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    4 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Winter Storm - Upper Midwestern, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - N of Ravensthorpe, Western Australia - Australia

    6 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NE of Lithgow, New South Wales - Australia

    9 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - E of Karumba, Queensland - Australia

    9 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Batemans Bay, New South Wales - Australia

    9 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Klyuchevskoy, Russia

    13 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Highsurf - Warning (Hawaiian Islands)

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Storm - Eastern and Central Paraguay

    18 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Peru

    18 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Trinidad _ Tobago

    18 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Pakistan

    18 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern and Central India

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Southern France

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern France

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds -Central Spain

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Northern Spain

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Sardegna, Italy

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Switzerland

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Central and Eastern Switzerland

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Shishaldin, United States

    19 hours ago WATCH

  • Avalanche - Central Idaho, United States

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Central Washington and Northern Oregon, United States

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Southern Wyoming

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southeastern South Africa

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Badakshan Province, Afghanistan

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Malé, Maldives

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Central Canada

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Yukon, Canada

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northern Bolivia

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Dengue Fever Outbreak - Republic of the Sudan

    2 weeks ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Logone-et-Chari, Cameroon

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Sabah, Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Narino Department, Colombia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Burundi

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Madagascar

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Japan

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Argentina

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Uganda

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Somalia and Kenya

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Musanze, Rwanda

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - South Africa

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Eastern South Korea

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Winter Storms - Central Asia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - White Island, New Zealand

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Southern Germany

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - England, United Kingdom

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Northern Utah, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Western Wyoming, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Waterton Lakes National Park, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Banff, Yoho and Kootenay National Park, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Little Yoho National Park, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Northwestern Montana

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Valparaiso Municipality, Chile

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Floods - Johor State, Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storm - Eastern Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Dengue Fever Outbreak - Pakistan

    3 weeks ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.9 - Izu Islands, Japan region

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Etna, Italy

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sheveluch, Russia

    3 days ago ADVISORY

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo/Uganda

    5 months ago WARNING

  • Dengue Outbreak - Philippines

    4 months ago ADVISORY

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans
January 12, 2016

Tropical Cyclone 06P (Ula) remains active…located about 259 NM east-northeast of Kingston Island

Tropical Cyclone 01C (Pali) remains active…located about 1345 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone Ula

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone Ula

Tropical Cyclone 06P (Ula) remains active in the southwestern Pacific, on a weakening trend, after becoming the first category 4 storm of 2016 on Sunday…reaching 132 mph to the east-northeast of New Caledonia

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical cyclone…along with what the computer models are showing

This TC was located about 259 NM east-northeast of Kingston Island…and has been moving southeastward at 13 knots.

Here’s a near real time
wind profile of system…spinning in a clockwise fashion in the southern hemisphere

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows a fully exposed low level circulation center, with convection sheared to the southeast.

The upper level environment and surface conditions remain unfavorable for development, with weak outflow, strong 30-40 knot wind shear, and cool sea surface temperatures.

TC Ula is forecast to continue moving southeastward through the next 12-24 hours, and will complete extra-tropical transition by the end of the forecast period.

Maximum surface winds at the JTWC advisory #27 were 50 knots…with gusts to 65 knots

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 01C (Pali)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 01C (Pali)

Hurricane 01C (Pali) remains active in the far southwest corner of the central Pacific Ocean…about 1345 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii. Sustained winds as of the CPHC advisory #21 were 90 mph, making it a category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale.

Surf generated by Pali when it was a tropical storm, brought 3-5-foot surf to the south shores of the Hawaiian Islands. The swell is expected to decline to 2 to 4 feet today.

Although the southwest swell continues to trend down…small pulses from hurricane Pali will remain possible through the week.

The storm is too far away to bring more than surf to Hawaii.

Here’s a satellite image of this hurricane…along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s a near real time wind profile of system…spinning in a counter-clockwise fashion in the northern hemisphere (with the Hawaiian Islands as a reference)

Only two other tropical storms have been active in January across the central and northeast Pacific…since records began back in 1949.

According to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii:

AFTER EXHIBITING A RATHER WELL DEFINED EYE THROUGH THE EVENING…A RECENT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PALI HAS CAUSED THE EYE TO BECOME CLOUD FILLED…LIKELY DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR OF AROUND 15 KNOTS.

PALI CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 170/06 KNOTS.

THE HURRICANE REMAINS NEAR A LOW LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN A PERSISTENT AREA OF WESTERLY WINDS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR AND A DEEP RIDGE CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG 20N.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE NEAR 175E IS BUILDING EASTWARD. THIS IS CAUSING THE ALREADY LOW LATITUDE HURRICANE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD… SOMETHING RARELY SEEN IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.

AS PALI SLOWLY APPROACHES THE EQUATOR…DEEP EASTERLIES TO THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED TO INDUCE A WESTWARD MOTION BEYOND THURSDAY…THOUGH CONTINUED INTERACTION WITH THE LOW LATITUDE TROUGH MAY SLOW THE MOTION SOMEWHAT.

WITH PALI MOVING CLOSER TO THE EQUATOR…UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST BEYOND THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING AS THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EXTREMELY LOW LATITUDES NOT TYPICALLY OBSERVED.

ALTHOUGH PALI WILL REMAIN OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28 TO 29 C (82.4 to 84.2 Fahrenheit) ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK…SHIPS INDICATES A MODEST INCREASE IN WIND SHEAR THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN HELD CONSTANT AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND DUE TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY AT THE EXTREMELY LOW LATITUDES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.

In general, most tropical cyclones do not form within 5 degrees latitude of the equator, due to the weakness of the Coriolis force needed to help generate the low-level spin.

Hurricane Pali is the southernmost tropical cyclone to form in the central Pacific basin, developing at just 4.7 degrees north of the equator, very likely influenced by the warmer than average sea-surface temperatures associated with this strong El Niño.


Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Tropical Cyclone 01C (Pali)

CPHC textual Advisory
CPHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 06P (Ula)  

JTWC textual warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area