Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

January 13, 2016
  • Flood - Jackson, MS Region, United States

    8 minutes ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 66 km ESE of Vikindu, Tanzania

    17 hours ago WATCH

  • Wildfire - N of Chernyshevskiy, Chukot - Russia

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Tropical Depression - Ten-e

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tropical Depression - Eleven

    2 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - NE of Luiana, Cuando Cubango - Angola

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - N of Malanje - Angola

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - N of Dilolo, Katanga - Congo (Kinshasa)

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SE of Saurimo, Lunda Sul - Angola

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    2 hours ago WATCH

  • Wildfire - Mesa and Garfield Counties (Pine Gulch Fire), Colorado, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SE of Salmon, Idaho - United States

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - Los Angeles County (Texas Fire), California, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Garfield County (Grizzly Creek Fire), Colorado, United States

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 147 km S of False Pass, Alaska

    4 hours ago WATCH

  • Tsunami (AK/BC/US West Coast) - 125 miles SE of Dutch Harbor, Alaska - 5.4

    4 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    4 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sinabung, Indonesia

    4 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Kerinci, Indonesia

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 55 km SSW of Surab, Pakistan

    10 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Nishinoshima, Japan

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Tropical Depression - Six

    8 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tropical Cyclone - Elida

    8 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    2 weeks ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    2 weeks ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 92 km SW of Basco, Philippines

    12 hours ago WATCH

  • Floods - North Korea

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Kinston, NC Region, United States

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Veracruz, Mexico

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Tornado - Baotou City, China

    10 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Storms - Sri Lanka

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Andalusia, Spain

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Mali

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Southwestern United States

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Northern Texas, United States

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Saskatchewan, Canada

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northeastern Spain

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Italy

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - France

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - China

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central Sulawesi, Indonesia

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - South Sulawesi, Indonesia

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Paraguay

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Brazil

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Missions, Argentina

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Sudan

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - South Sudan

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Somalia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southwestern Niger

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northern Nigeria

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Ethiopia

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Pakistan

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - South Korea

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - India

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - India

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Panama

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Guatemala

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern Haiti

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Dominican Republic

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Evia Island, Greece

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - France

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Belgium

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northeastern United States

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Marshall Islands

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Mariana Islands

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Mexico

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Northwestern Mexico

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Southeastern Canada

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 228 km SSW of Severo-Kuril’sk, Russia

    17 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    2 weeks ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    2 weeks ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    2 weeks ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Ibu, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Storm - Midwestern United States

    1 day ago INFORMATION

  • Floods - Bangladesh

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Western Yemen

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Pakistan

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Myanmar

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    2 weeks ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Cusco Region, Peru

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Idduki District, India

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Trinidad and Tobago

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southwestern Laos

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Southeastern Mexico

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 4 km SE of Sparta, North Carolina

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Flood - Lumberton, NC Region, United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    2 weeks ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans
January 13, 2016

Tropical Cyclone 01C (Pali) remains active…located about 1505 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 01C (Pali)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 01C (Pali)

Hurricane 01C (Pali) remains active in the far southwest corner of the central Pacific Ocean…about 1550 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii.

Sustained winds as of the CPHC advisory #25 were 80 mph, keeping it a category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale.

Surf generated by Pali when it was a tropical storm, brought 3-5 foot surf to the south shores of the Hawaiian Islands at its peak…southwest swell from hurricane Pali will persist for the next couple of days, but will be rather small / 2-3 feet today, lowering to 1-3 feet Thursday.

The storm is too far away to bring more than surf to Hawaii.

Here’s a satellite image of this hurricane…along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s a near real time wind profile of system…spinning in a counter-clockwise fashion in the northern hemisphere (with the Hawaiian Islands as a reference)

Only two other tropical storms have been active in January across the central and northeast Pacific…since records began back in 1949.

According to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii:

PALI CONTINUES ON A WEAKENING TREND THAT BEGAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON…WITH SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATING A MORE RAPID RATE OF DECAY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

MOST SATELLITE ANALYSTS VIEWING RECENT DATA WITHOUT CONTEXT WOULD BE HARD-PRESSED TO DEEM PALI A HURRICANE. SHEAR IS ESTIMATED TO BE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 KNOTS…AND LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS ANALYSIS…WITH OUTFLOW ALOFT RESTRICTED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

PALI HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT…AND THE CURRENT MOTION VECTOR FOR THIS ADVISORY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 210/07 KNOTS.

LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTS A NEARLY STATIONARY EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE WELL NORTH OF PALI…ALONG 18N-20N. THIS RIDGE APPEARS TO BE DRIVING THE CURRENT MOTION…WHICH IS FORCING PALI DEEPER INTO A NEARLY EAST-WEST ORIENTED NEAR-EQUATORIAL LOW-LEVEL TROUGH.

THE FORECAST ANTICIPATES THAT PALI WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST LATER TODAY BEFORE MAKING A TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON DAYS 2 THROUGH 4…AND TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD…ALL WITHIN THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC AT BEST…WITH THE UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATING A MORE RAPID WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS.

THIS IS PARTIALLY DUE TO OBSERVED TRENDS…BUT ALSO DUE TO TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE…MOST OF WHICH HAVE BEEN INCREASING THE RATE OF WEAKENING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS.

WATER TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR…AS OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK ARE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO SUPPORT A STRONG HURRICANE. WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE THOUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS…WITH WEAKER SHEAR IN LATER FORECAST PERIODS POTENTIALLY ALLOWING PALI TO RESTRENGTHEN WEST OF THE DATE LINE.

ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST ASSUMES THAT PALI WILL BE ABLE TO SURVIVE THE WESTWARD TREK THROUGH THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH…THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT PALI WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITHIN THE TROUGH.

In general, most tropical cyclones do not form within 5 degrees latitude of the equator, due to the weakness of the Coriolis force needed to help generate the low-level spin.

Hurricane Pali is the southernmost tropical cyclone to form in the central Pacific basin, developing at just 4.7 degrees north of the equator, very likely influenced by the warmer than average sea-surface temperatures associated with this strong El Niño.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation…and an area of disturbed weather 250 miles northeast of Pago Pago, American Samoa

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation…and an area of disturbed weather 250 miles northeast of Pago Pago, American Samoa

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 98P in the south Pacific Ocean

Here’s a satellite image of this area of disturbed weather…along with what the computer models are showing

This disturbance was located about 250 NM northeast of Pago Pago, American Samoa

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows a disorganized low level circulation center, with broad cyclonic turning, and flaring deep convection around the outer periphery.

The upper level environment and surface conditions are marginally favorable for development, with good divergence and moderate 15-20 knot wind shear.

Maximum surface winds were 20-25 knots

The potential for development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 72 hours is low.


Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Tropical Cyclone 01C (Pali)

CPHC textual Advisory
CPHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area