Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

January 13, 2016
  • Winter Storm - Central, United States

    5 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    6 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    26 minutes ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Northern Rockies and Plains, United States

    52 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    1 hour ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 141km W of Abepura, Indonesia

    6 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - Warner Robins, GA Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Upper Midwestern, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Floods - Upper Midwestern, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Bor, Jungoli - South Sudan

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - N of Nkawkaw, Eastern - Ghana

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - S of Ndele, Bamingui-Bangoran - Central African Republic

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Shishaldin, United States

    1 hour ago WATCH

  • Tropical Cyclone - Tino

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Victoria, Australia

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Northeastern, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Niquen Commune, Chile

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - South Lyon--Howell, MI Region, United States

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Taal, Philippines

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Northwestern, United States

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Miami, OK Region, United States

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Jackson, AL Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Osceola, AR Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Kuchinoerabujima, Japan

    4 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Asosan, Japan

    4 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Jamestown, NY Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Paducah, KY--IL Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.4 - 8km S of Indios, Puerto Rico

    1 week ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - E of Corumba, Mato Grosso do Sul - Brazil

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Winter Storm - Alaska, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Oconto, WI Region, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Defiance, OH Region, United States

    7 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Blountstown, FL Region, United States

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Watertown, NY Region, United States

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    15 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 100km NE of Alotau, Papua New Guinea

    17 hours ago ADVISORY

  • High Winds - British Columbia, Canada

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Manitoba, Canada

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - New Brunswick, Canada

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - 166km E of Raoul Island, New Zealand

    20 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Southeastern, United States

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.3 - 178km ESE of Raoul Island, New Zealand

    20 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 124km SSW of Tual, Indonesia

    21 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Minneapolis--St. Paul, MN--WI Region, United States

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Florence, SC Region, United States

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Northwest Territories, Canada

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Nova Scotia, Canada

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Nunavut, Canada

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Northern Ontario, Canada

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Prince Edward Island, Canada

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southwestern South Africa

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Muscat, Oman

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Northern Rockes and Plains, United States

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Southwestern United States

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Germany

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Germany

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Finland

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northwestern Italy

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Central Switzerland

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - New South Wales, Australia

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Angol Commune, Chile

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northeastern Peru

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Southern Argentina

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Southern Brazil

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Mozambique, Malawi, and eastern Zambia

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Central Afghanistan

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Pakistan

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Mexico

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - England, United Kingdom

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Southern Switzerland

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Wales, United Kingdom

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southwestern Iran

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Northwestern United States

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Idaho, United States

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Wyoming, United States

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Utah, United States

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Montana, United States

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - California, United States

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Western Canada

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central Peru

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Peru

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Brazil

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Samarinda City, Indonesia

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Northern India

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Waterton Lakes National Park, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Southern Quebec, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - South Australia, Australia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.9 - Ascension Island region

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo/Uganda

    7 months ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Chillán commune, Chile

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Central Chile

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storm - Northern Paraguay

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Cabo Delgado, Mozambique

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Glacier National Park, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Little Yoho National Park, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Banff, Yoho, Kootenay National Park, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanches - Northern Pakistan

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - New South Wales, Australia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Northern India

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Northern India

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Zambezi Region, Nambia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northwestern Angola

    2 days ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Western Peru

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Zimbabwe and Mozambique

    2 days ago WATCH

  • Floods - Northern Madagascar

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Central Asia

    2 days ago WATCH

  • Winter Storms - Western and Southern Afghanistan

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nishinoshima, Japan

    3 days ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Krakatau, Indonesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus – China

    4 days ago INFORMATION

  • Measles Outbreak - Democratic Republic of the Congo

    1 week ago INFORMATION

  • Yellow Fever - Nigeria

    1 month ago ADVISORY

  • Dengue Outbreak - Philippines

    2 weeks ago INFORMATION

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans
January 13, 2016

Tropical Cyclone 01C (Pali) remains active…located about 1505 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 01C (Pali)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 01C (Pali)

Hurricane 01C (Pali) remains active in the far southwest corner of the central Pacific Ocean…about 1550 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii.

Sustained winds as of the CPHC advisory #25 were 80 mph, keeping it a category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale.

Surf generated by Pali when it was a tropical storm, brought 3-5 foot surf to the south shores of the Hawaiian Islands at its peak…southwest swell from hurricane Pali will persist for the next couple of days, but will be rather small / 2-3 feet today, lowering to 1-3 feet Thursday.

The storm is too far away to bring more than surf to Hawaii.

Here’s a satellite image of this hurricane…along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s a near real time wind profile of system…spinning in a counter-clockwise fashion in the northern hemisphere (with the Hawaiian Islands as a reference)

Only two other tropical storms have been active in January across the central and northeast Pacific…since records began back in 1949.

According to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii:

PALI CONTINUES ON A WEAKENING TREND THAT BEGAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON…WITH SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATING A MORE RAPID RATE OF DECAY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

MOST SATELLITE ANALYSTS VIEWING RECENT DATA WITHOUT CONTEXT WOULD BE HARD-PRESSED TO DEEM PALI A HURRICANE. SHEAR IS ESTIMATED TO BE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 KNOTS…AND LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS ANALYSIS…WITH OUTFLOW ALOFT RESTRICTED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

PALI HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT…AND THE CURRENT MOTION VECTOR FOR THIS ADVISORY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 210/07 KNOTS.

LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTS A NEARLY STATIONARY EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE WELL NORTH OF PALI…ALONG 18N-20N. THIS RIDGE APPEARS TO BE DRIVING THE CURRENT MOTION…WHICH IS FORCING PALI DEEPER INTO A NEARLY EAST-WEST ORIENTED NEAR-EQUATORIAL LOW-LEVEL TROUGH.

THE FORECAST ANTICIPATES THAT PALI WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST LATER TODAY BEFORE MAKING A TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON DAYS 2 THROUGH 4…AND TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD…ALL WITHIN THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC AT BEST…WITH THE UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATING A MORE RAPID WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS.

THIS IS PARTIALLY DUE TO OBSERVED TRENDS…BUT ALSO DUE TO TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE…MOST OF WHICH HAVE BEEN INCREASING THE RATE OF WEAKENING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS.

WATER TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR…AS OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK ARE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO SUPPORT A STRONG HURRICANE. WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE THOUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS…WITH WEAKER SHEAR IN LATER FORECAST PERIODS POTENTIALLY ALLOWING PALI TO RESTRENGTHEN WEST OF THE DATE LINE.

ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST ASSUMES THAT PALI WILL BE ABLE TO SURVIVE THE WESTWARD TREK THROUGH THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH…THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT PALI WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITHIN THE TROUGH.

In general, most tropical cyclones do not form within 5 degrees latitude of the equator, due to the weakness of the Coriolis force needed to help generate the low-level spin.

Hurricane Pali is the southernmost tropical cyclone to form in the central Pacific basin, developing at just 4.7 degrees north of the equator, very likely influenced by the warmer than average sea-surface temperatures associated with this strong El Niño.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation…and an area of disturbed weather 250 miles northeast of Pago Pago, American Samoa

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation…and an area of disturbed weather 250 miles northeast of Pago Pago, American Samoa

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 98P in the south Pacific Ocean

Here’s a satellite image of this area of disturbed weather…along with what the computer models are showing

This disturbance was located about 250 NM northeast of Pago Pago, American Samoa

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows a disorganized low level circulation center, with broad cyclonic turning, and flaring deep convection around the outer periphery.

The upper level environment and surface conditions are marginally favorable for development, with good divergence and moderate 15-20 knot wind shear.

Maximum surface winds were 20-25 knots

The potential for development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 72 hours is low.


Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Tropical Cyclone 01C (Pali)

CPHC textual Advisory
CPHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area