Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

January 13, 2016
  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    2 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Asosan, Japan

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - SW of Birao, Vakaga - Central African Republic

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Diapaga, Tapoa - Burkina Faso

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Malakal, Upper Nile - South Sudan

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of Grafton, New South Wales - Australia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Katoomba, New South Wales - Australia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Batemans Bay, New South Wales - Australia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Chos Malal, Neuquén - Argentina

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 128km SSE of Pondaguitan, Philippines

    19 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Cyclone - Ambali

    4 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tropical Cyclone - Pawan

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - Western Indian-Antarctic Ridge

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Highsurf - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Highwind - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 63km NNE of Isangel, Vanuatu

    8 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Cyclone - Belna

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    9 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Winter Storm - Western, United States

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Tropical Depression - Kammuri

    10 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfires - El Quisco, Chile

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Central New Zealand

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southeastern New Zealand

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Flooding - Northern Philippines

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Northern and Central South Korea

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Eastern South Korea

    11 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Storms - Sri Lanka

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Scotland, United Kingdom

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Northeastern France

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southeastern Italy

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Northern Germany

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Banff, Yoho and Kootenay National Park, Canada

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Glacier National Park, Canada

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern United States

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern Alaska, United States

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Gunnison and Aspen, Colorado, United States

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Eastern New Mexico

    13 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Northern South Africa

    13 hours ago WATCH

  • Floods - Western and Northern DR Congo

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Bududa, Uganda

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Esperance, Western Australia - Australia

    14 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 171km E of Kurilsk, Russia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Nebraska City, NE Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - St. Joseph, MO--KS Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Richmond, MO Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Central City--Greenville, KY Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Charleston, MO Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Carmi, IL Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangeang Api, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Sironko, Uganda

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Cunene Province, Angola

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Northwest Territories, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Madiera, Portugal

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Western Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bolivia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Argentina

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northwestern Argentina

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Somalia and Kenya

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Djibouti City, Djibouti

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Uganda

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northwestern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - England, United Kingdom

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - South India

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Argentina

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Central Asia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Dengue Fever Outbreak - Pakistan

    2 weeks ago ADVISORY

  • Dengue Outbreak - Philippines

    3 months ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    2 days ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Etna, Italy

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo/Uganda

    5 months ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Western Wyoming, United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Southeastern Idaho, United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Northern Utah, United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Dengue Fever Outbreak - Republic of the Sudan

    1 week ago ADVISORY

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans
January 13, 2016

Tropical Cyclone 01C (Pali) remains active…located about 1505 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 01C (Pali)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 01C (Pali)

Hurricane 01C (Pali) remains active in the far southwest corner of the central Pacific Ocean…about 1550 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii.

Sustained winds as of the CPHC advisory #25 were 80 mph, keeping it a category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale.

Surf generated by Pali when it was a tropical storm, brought 3-5 foot surf to the south shores of the Hawaiian Islands at its peak…southwest swell from hurricane Pali will persist for the next couple of days, but will be rather small / 2-3 feet today, lowering to 1-3 feet Thursday.

The storm is too far away to bring more than surf to Hawaii.

Here’s a satellite image of this hurricane…along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s a near real time wind profile of system…spinning in a counter-clockwise fashion in the northern hemisphere (with the Hawaiian Islands as a reference)

Only two other tropical storms have been active in January across the central and northeast Pacific…since records began back in 1949.

According to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii:

PALI CONTINUES ON A WEAKENING TREND THAT BEGAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON…WITH SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATING A MORE RAPID RATE OF DECAY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

MOST SATELLITE ANALYSTS VIEWING RECENT DATA WITHOUT CONTEXT WOULD BE HARD-PRESSED TO DEEM PALI A HURRICANE. SHEAR IS ESTIMATED TO BE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 KNOTS…AND LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS ANALYSIS…WITH OUTFLOW ALOFT RESTRICTED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

PALI HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT…AND THE CURRENT MOTION VECTOR FOR THIS ADVISORY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 210/07 KNOTS.

LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTS A NEARLY STATIONARY EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE WELL NORTH OF PALI…ALONG 18N-20N. THIS RIDGE APPEARS TO BE DRIVING THE CURRENT MOTION…WHICH IS FORCING PALI DEEPER INTO A NEARLY EAST-WEST ORIENTED NEAR-EQUATORIAL LOW-LEVEL TROUGH.

THE FORECAST ANTICIPATES THAT PALI WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST LATER TODAY BEFORE MAKING A TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON DAYS 2 THROUGH 4…AND TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD…ALL WITHIN THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC AT BEST…WITH THE UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATING A MORE RAPID WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS.

THIS IS PARTIALLY DUE TO OBSERVED TRENDS…BUT ALSO DUE TO TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE…MOST OF WHICH HAVE BEEN INCREASING THE RATE OF WEAKENING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS.

WATER TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR…AS OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK ARE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO SUPPORT A STRONG HURRICANE. WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE THOUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS…WITH WEAKER SHEAR IN LATER FORECAST PERIODS POTENTIALLY ALLOWING PALI TO RESTRENGTHEN WEST OF THE DATE LINE.

ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST ASSUMES THAT PALI WILL BE ABLE TO SURVIVE THE WESTWARD TREK THROUGH THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH…THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT PALI WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITHIN THE TROUGH.

In general, most tropical cyclones do not form within 5 degrees latitude of the equator, due to the weakness of the Coriolis force needed to help generate the low-level spin.

Hurricane Pali is the southernmost tropical cyclone to form in the central Pacific basin, developing at just 4.7 degrees north of the equator, very likely influenced by the warmer than average sea-surface temperatures associated with this strong El Niño.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation…and an area of disturbed weather 250 miles northeast of Pago Pago, American Samoa

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation…and an area of disturbed weather 250 miles northeast of Pago Pago, American Samoa

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 98P in the south Pacific Ocean

Here’s a satellite image of this area of disturbed weather…along with what the computer models are showing

This disturbance was located about 250 NM northeast of Pago Pago, American Samoa

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows a disorganized low level circulation center, with broad cyclonic turning, and flaring deep convection around the outer periphery.

The upper level environment and surface conditions are marginally favorable for development, with good divergence and moderate 15-20 knot wind shear.

Maximum surface winds were 20-25 knots

The potential for development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 72 hours is low.


Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Tropical Cyclone 01C (Pali)

CPHC textual Advisory
CPHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area