Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

January 14, 2016
  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    2 weeks ago WARNING

  • Flood - Washington, DC--VA--MD Region, United States

    13 minutes ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    2 weeks ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Mesa and Garfield Counties (Pine Gulch Fire), Colorado, United States

    12 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SE of Salmon, Idaho - United States

    12 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - Los Angeles County (Texas Fire), California, United States

    12 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Garfield County (Grizzly Creek Fire), Colorado, United States

    12 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    12 minutes ago WARNING

  • Flood - Jackson, MS Region, United States

    33 minutes ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 66 km ESE of Vikindu, Tanzania

    17 hours ago WATCH

  • Wildfire - N of Chernyshevskiy, Chukot - Russia

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Tropical Depression - Ten-e

    3 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tropical Depression - Eleven

    3 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - NE of Luiana, Cuando Cubango - Angola

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - N of Malanje - Angola

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - N of Dilolo, Katanga - Congo (Kinshasa)

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SE of Saurimo, Lunda Sul - Angola

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    3 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 147 km S of False Pass, Alaska

    4 hours ago WATCH

  • Tsunami (AK/BC/US West Coast) - 125 miles SE of Dutch Harbor, Alaska - 5.4

    4 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    4 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sinabung, Indonesia

    4 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Kerinci, Indonesia

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 55 km SSW of Surab, Pakistan

    11 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Nishinoshima, Japan

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Tropical Depression - Six

    8 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tropical Cyclone - Elida

    9 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    2 weeks ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    2 weeks ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 92 km SW of Basco, Philippines

    12 hours ago WATCH

  • Floods - North Korea

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Kinston, NC Region, United States

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Veracruz, Mexico

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Tornado - Baotou City, China

    11 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Storms - Sri Lanka

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Andalusia, Spain

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Mali

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Southwestern United States

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Northern Texas, United States

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Saskatchewan, Canada

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northeastern Spain

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Italy

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - France

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - China

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central Sulawesi, Indonesia

    14 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - South Sulawesi, Indonesia

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Paraguay

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Brazil

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Missions, Argentina

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Sudan

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - South Sudan

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Somalia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southwestern Niger

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northern Nigeria

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Ethiopia

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Pakistan

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - South Korea

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - India

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - India

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Panama

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Guatemala

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern Haiti

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Dominican Republic

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Evia Island, Greece

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - France

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Belgium

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northeastern United States

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Midwestern United States

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Marshall Islands

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Mariana Islands

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Mexico

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Northwestern Mexico

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Southeastern Canada

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 228 km SSW of Severo-Kuril’sk, Russia

    17 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    2 weeks ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Ibu, Indonesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Storm - Midwestern United States

    1 day ago INFORMATION

  • Floods - Bangladesh

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Western Yemen

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Pakistan

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Myanmar

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    2 weeks ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Cusco Region, Peru

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Idduki District, India

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Trinidad and Tobago

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southwestern Laos

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Southeastern Mexico

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 4 km SE of Sparta, North Carolina

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Flood - Lumberton, NC Region, United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    2 weeks ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans
January 14, 2016

Tropical Cyclone 01C (Pali) remains active…located about 1650 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 01C (Pali)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 01C (Pali)

Tropical Depression 01C (Pali) remains active in the far southwest corner of the central Pacific Ocean…about 1650 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii.

Sustained winds as of the CPHC advisory #29 were 35 mph…with movement towards the southwest at 6 mph

The storm is too far away to bring more than small pulses of surf to Hawaii.

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical depression…along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s a near real time wind profile of system…spinning in a counter-clockwise fashion in the northern hemisphere (with the Hawaiian Islands as a reference)

According to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii:

PALI CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO A RELATIVELY SMALL BUT PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. 

RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES…INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZATION WITHIN THE LIMITED CONVECTION.  

BASED ON WHERE THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IS PERSISTING…AND AFTER MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE POSITION ESTIMATES… THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY IS AN UNCERTAIN 230/5 KNOTS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS AND PALI’S PROXIMITY TO THE EQUATOR, ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO THE DEMISE OF THE SMALL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ALSO…STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ALONG THE EQUATOR WHICH AIDED IN THE DEVELOMENT OF PALI A WEEK AGO ARE NO LONGER PRESENT…WITH THE FLOW NOW HEADED TOWARD AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE.

THUS IT NOW APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT PALI WILL NOT BE ABLE TO REDEVELOP…AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES THAT PALI WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 12 HOURS.

DISSIPATION IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW SHORTLY THEREAFTER…AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST UNTIL THIS OCCURS.

In general, most tropical cyclones do not form within 5 degrees latitude of the equator, due to the weakness of the Coriolis force needed to help generate the low-level spin.

Former Hurricane Pali is the southernmost tropical cyclone to form in the central Pacific basin, developing at just 4.7 degrees north of the equator…very likely influenced by the warmer than average sea-surface temperatures associated with this strong El Niño.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation…and an area of disturbed weather east-northeast of Pago Pago, American Samoa

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation…and an area of disturbed weather east-northeast of Pago Pago, American Samoa

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 98P in the south Pacific Ocean

Here’s a satellite image of this area of disturbed weather…along with what the computer models are showing

This disturbance was located about 394 NM east-northeast of Pago Pago, American Samoa

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows formative cloud bands have slightly deepened and wrapped tighter into a better defined low level circulation center.

The upper level analysis  indicates a favorable environment, with moderate 15-20 knot wind shear, being offset by strong divergent outflow…with channels on both the south and northern sides.

Sea surface temperatures are very warm, and highly conducive for development.

Global models show significant development within 24-36 hours, as it tracks to the south.

Maximum surface winds were 25-30 knots

The potential for development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 72 hours has been upgraded to high.


Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Tropical Cyclone 01C (Pali)

CPHC textual Advisory
CPHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area