Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

January 14, 2016
  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    2 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Asosan, Japan

    2 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - SW of Birao, Vakaga - Central African Republic

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Diapaga, Tapoa - Burkina Faso

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Malakal, Upper Nile - South Sudan

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of Grafton, New South Wales - Australia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Katoomba, New South Wales - Australia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Batemans Bay, New South Wales - Australia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Chos Malal, Neuquén - Argentina

    3 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 128km SSE of Pondaguitan, Philippines

    19 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Cyclone - Ambali

    5 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tropical Cyclone - Pawan

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - Western Indian-Antarctic Ridge

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Highsurf - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Highwind - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 63km NNE of Isangel, Vanuatu

    8 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Cyclone - Belna

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    9 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Winter Storm - Western, United States

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Tropical Depression - Kammuri

    11 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfires - El Quisco, Chile

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Central New Zealand

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southeastern New Zealand

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Flooding - Northern Philippines

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Northern and Central South Korea

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Eastern South Korea

    12 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Storms - Sri Lanka

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Scotland, United Kingdom

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Northeastern France

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southeastern Italy

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Northern Germany

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Banff, Yoho and Kootenay National Park, Canada

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Glacier National Park, Canada

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern United States

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern Alaska, United States

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Gunnison and Aspen, Colorado, United States

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Eastern New Mexico

    13 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Northern South Africa

    13 hours ago WATCH

  • Floods - Western and Northern DR Congo

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Bududa, Uganda

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Esperance, Western Australia - Australia

    14 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 171km E of Kurilsk, Russia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Nebraska City, NE Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - St. Joseph, MO--KS Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Richmond, MO Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Central City--Greenville, KY Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Charleston, MO Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Carmi, IL Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangeang Api, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Sironko, Uganda

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Cunene Province, Angola

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Northwest Territories, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Madiera, Portugal

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Western Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bolivia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Argentina

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northwestern Argentina

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Somalia and Kenya

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Djibouti City, Djibouti

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Uganda

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northwestern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - England, United Kingdom

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - South India

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Argentina

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Central Asia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Dengue Fever Outbreak - Pakistan

    2 weeks ago ADVISORY

  • Dengue Outbreak - Philippines

    3 months ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    2 days ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Etna, Italy

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo/Uganda

    5 months ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Western Wyoming, United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Southeastern Idaho, United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Northern Utah, United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Dengue Fever Outbreak - Republic of the Sudan

    1 week ago ADVISORY

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans
January 14, 2016

Tropical Cyclone 01C (Pali) remains active…located about 1650 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 01C (Pali)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 01C (Pali)

Tropical Depression 01C (Pali) remains active in the far southwest corner of the central Pacific Ocean…about 1650 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii.

Sustained winds as of the CPHC advisory #29 were 35 mph…with movement towards the southwest at 6 mph

The storm is too far away to bring more than small pulses of surf to Hawaii.

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical depression…along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s a near real time wind profile of system…spinning in a counter-clockwise fashion in the northern hemisphere (with the Hawaiian Islands as a reference)

According to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii:

PALI CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO A RELATIVELY SMALL BUT PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. 

RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES…INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZATION WITHIN THE LIMITED CONVECTION.  

BASED ON WHERE THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IS PERSISTING…AND AFTER MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE POSITION ESTIMATES… THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY IS AN UNCERTAIN 230/5 KNOTS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS AND PALI’S PROXIMITY TO THE EQUATOR, ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO THE DEMISE OF THE SMALL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ALSO…STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ALONG THE EQUATOR WHICH AIDED IN THE DEVELOMENT OF PALI A WEEK AGO ARE NO LONGER PRESENT…WITH THE FLOW NOW HEADED TOWARD AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE.

THUS IT NOW APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT PALI WILL NOT BE ABLE TO REDEVELOP…AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES THAT PALI WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 12 HOURS.

DISSIPATION IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW SHORTLY THEREAFTER…AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST UNTIL THIS OCCURS.

In general, most tropical cyclones do not form within 5 degrees latitude of the equator, due to the weakness of the Coriolis force needed to help generate the low-level spin.

Former Hurricane Pali is the southernmost tropical cyclone to form in the central Pacific basin, developing at just 4.7 degrees north of the equator…very likely influenced by the warmer than average sea-surface temperatures associated with this strong El Niño.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation…and an area of disturbed weather east-northeast of Pago Pago, American Samoa

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation…and an area of disturbed weather east-northeast of Pago Pago, American Samoa

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 98P in the south Pacific Ocean

Here’s a satellite image of this area of disturbed weather…along with what the computer models are showing

This disturbance was located about 394 NM east-northeast of Pago Pago, American Samoa

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows formative cloud bands have slightly deepened and wrapped tighter into a better defined low level circulation center.

The upper level analysis  indicates a favorable environment, with moderate 15-20 knot wind shear, being offset by strong divergent outflow…with channels on both the south and northern sides.

Sea surface temperatures are very warm, and highly conducive for development.

Global models show significant development within 24-36 hours, as it tracks to the south.

Maximum surface winds were 25-30 knots

The potential for development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 72 hours has been upgraded to high.


Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Tropical Cyclone 01C (Pali)

CPHC textual Advisory
CPHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area