Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

January 14, 2016
  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    32 minutes ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Upper Midwestern, United States

    27 minutes ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Central, United States

    31 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    52 minutes ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Northern Rockies and Plains, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    1 hour ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 141km W of Abepura, Indonesia

    6 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Warner Robins, GA Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Floods - Upper Midwestern, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Bor, Jungoli - South Sudan

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - N of Nkawkaw, Eastern - Ghana

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - S of Ndele, Bamingui-Bangoran - Central African Republic

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Shishaldin, United States

    2 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Cyclone - Tino

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Victoria, Australia

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Northeastern, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Niquen Commune, Chile

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - South Lyon--Howell, MI Region, United States

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Taal, Philippines

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Northwestern, United States

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Miami, OK Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Jackson, AL Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Osceola, AR Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Kuchinoerabujima, Japan

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Asosan, Japan

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Jamestown, NY Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Paducah, KY--IL Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.4 - 8km S of Indios, Puerto Rico

    1 week ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - E of Corumba, Mato Grosso do Sul - Brazil

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Winter Storm - Alaska, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Oconto, WI Region, United States

    7 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Defiance, OH Region, United States

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Blountstown, FL Region, United States

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Watertown, NY Region, United States

    14 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    15 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 100km NE of Alotau, Papua New Guinea

    18 hours ago ADVISORY

  • High Winds - British Columbia, Canada

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Manitoba, Canada

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - New Brunswick, Canada

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - 166km E of Raoul Island, New Zealand

    20 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Southeastern, United States

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.3 - 178km ESE of Raoul Island, New Zealand

    21 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 124km SSW of Tual, Indonesia

    21 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Minneapolis--St. Paul, MN--WI Region, United States

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Florence, SC Region, United States

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Northwest Territories, Canada

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Nova Scotia, Canada

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Nunavut, Canada

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Northern Ontario, Canada

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Prince Edward Island, Canada

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southwestern South Africa

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Muscat, Oman

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Northern Rockes and Plains, United States

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Southwestern United States

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Germany

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Germany

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Finland

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northwestern Italy

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Central Switzerland

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - New South Wales, Australia

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Angol Commune, Chile

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northeastern Peru

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Southern Argentina

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Southern Brazil

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Mozambique, Malawi, and eastern Zambia

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Central Afghanistan

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Pakistan

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Mexico

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - England, United Kingdom

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Southern Switzerland

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Wales, United Kingdom

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southwestern Iran

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Northwestern United States

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Idaho, United States

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Wyoming, United States

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Utah, United States

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Montana, United States

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - California, United States

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Western Canada

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central Peru

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Peru

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Brazil

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Samarinda City, Indonesia

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Northern India

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Waterton Lakes National Park, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Southern Quebec, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - South Australia, Australia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.9 - Ascension Island region

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo/Uganda

    7 months ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Chillán commune, Chile

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Central Chile

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storm - Northern Paraguay

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Cabo Delgado, Mozambique

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Glacier National Park, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Little Yoho National Park, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Banff, Yoho, Kootenay National Park, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanches - Northern Pakistan

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - New South Wales, Australia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Northern India

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Northern India

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Zambezi Region, Nambia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northwestern Angola

    2 days ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Western Peru

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Zimbabwe and Mozambique

    2 days ago WATCH

  • Floods - Northern Madagascar

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Central Asia

    2 days ago WATCH

  • Winter Storms - Western and Southern Afghanistan

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nishinoshima, Japan

    3 days ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Krakatau, Indonesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus – China

    4 days ago INFORMATION

  • Measles Outbreak - Democratic Republic of the Congo

    1 week ago INFORMATION

  • Yellow Fever - Nigeria

    1 month ago ADVISORY

  • Dengue Outbreak - Philippines

    2 weeks ago INFORMATION

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans
January 14, 2016

Tropical Cyclone 01C (Pali) remains active…located about 1650 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 01C (Pali)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 01C (Pali)

Tropical Depression 01C (Pali) remains active in the far southwest corner of the central Pacific Ocean…about 1650 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii.

Sustained winds as of the CPHC advisory #29 were 35 mph…with movement towards the southwest at 6 mph

The storm is too far away to bring more than small pulses of surf to Hawaii.

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical depression…along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s a near real time wind profile of system…spinning in a counter-clockwise fashion in the northern hemisphere (with the Hawaiian Islands as a reference)

According to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii:

PALI CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO A RELATIVELY SMALL BUT PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. 

RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES…INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZATION WITHIN THE LIMITED CONVECTION.  

BASED ON WHERE THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IS PERSISTING…AND AFTER MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE POSITION ESTIMATES… THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY IS AN UNCERTAIN 230/5 KNOTS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS AND PALI’S PROXIMITY TO THE EQUATOR, ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO THE DEMISE OF THE SMALL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ALSO…STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ALONG THE EQUATOR WHICH AIDED IN THE DEVELOMENT OF PALI A WEEK AGO ARE NO LONGER PRESENT…WITH THE FLOW NOW HEADED TOWARD AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE.

THUS IT NOW APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT PALI WILL NOT BE ABLE TO REDEVELOP…AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES THAT PALI WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 12 HOURS.

DISSIPATION IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW SHORTLY THEREAFTER…AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST UNTIL THIS OCCURS.

In general, most tropical cyclones do not form within 5 degrees latitude of the equator, due to the weakness of the Coriolis force needed to help generate the low-level spin.

Former Hurricane Pali is the southernmost tropical cyclone to form in the central Pacific basin, developing at just 4.7 degrees north of the equator…very likely influenced by the warmer than average sea-surface temperatures associated with this strong El Niño.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation…and an area of disturbed weather east-northeast of Pago Pago, American Samoa

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation…and an area of disturbed weather east-northeast of Pago Pago, American Samoa

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 98P in the south Pacific Ocean

Here’s a satellite image of this area of disturbed weather…along with what the computer models are showing

This disturbance was located about 394 NM east-northeast of Pago Pago, American Samoa

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows formative cloud bands have slightly deepened and wrapped tighter into a better defined low level circulation center.

The upper level analysis  indicates a favorable environment, with moderate 15-20 knot wind shear, being offset by strong divergent outflow…with channels on both the south and northern sides.

Sea surface temperatures are very warm, and highly conducive for development.

Global models show significant development within 24-36 hours, as it tracks to the south.

Maximum surface winds were 25-30 knots

The potential for development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 72 hours has been upgraded to high.


Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Tropical Cyclone 01C (Pali)

CPHC textual Advisory
CPHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area