Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

February 9, 2016
  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    1 hour ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Asosan, Japan

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - SW of Birao, Vakaga - Central African Republic

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Diapaga, Tapoa - Burkina Faso

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Malakal, Upper Nile - South Sudan

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of Grafton, New South Wales - Australia

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Katoomba, New South Wales - Australia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Batemans Bay, New South Wales - Australia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Chos Malal, Neuquén - Argentina

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 128km SSE of Pondaguitan, Philippines

    19 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Cyclone - Ambali

    4 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tropical Cyclone - Pawan

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - Western Indian-Antarctic Ridge

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Highsurf - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Highwind - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 63km NNE of Isangel, Vanuatu

    8 hours ago WATCH

  • Tropical Cyclone - Belna

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    8 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Winter Storm - Western, United States

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Tropical Depression - Kammuri

    10 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfires - El Quisco, Chile

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Central New Zealand

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southeastern New Zealand

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Flooding - Northern Philippines

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Northern and Central South Korea

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Eastern South Korea

    11 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Storms - Sri Lanka

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Scotland, United Kingdom

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Northeastern France

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southeastern Italy

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Northern Germany

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Banff, Yoho and Kootenay National Park, Canada

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Glacier National Park, Canada

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern United States

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern Alaska, United States

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Gunnison and Aspen, Colorado, United States

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Eastern New Mexico

    12 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Northern South Africa

    13 hours ago WATCH

  • Floods - Western and Northern DR Congo

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Bududa, Uganda

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Esperance, Western Australia - Australia

    14 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 171km E of Kurilsk, Russia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Nebraska City, NE Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - St. Joseph, MO--KS Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Richmond, MO Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Central City--Greenville, KY Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Charleston, MO Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Carmi, IL Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangeang Api, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Sironko, Uganda

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Cunene Province, Angola

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Northwest Territories, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Madiera, Portugal

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Western Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bolivia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Argentina

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northwestern Argentina

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Somalia and Kenya

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Djibouti City, Djibouti

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Uganda

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northwestern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - England, United Kingdom

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - South India

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Argentina

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Central Asia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Dengue Fever Outbreak - Pakistan

    2 weeks ago ADVISORY

  • Dengue Outbreak - Philippines

    3 months ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    2 days ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Etna, Italy

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo/Uganda

    5 months ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Western Wyoming, United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Southeastern Idaho, United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Northern Utah, United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Dengue Fever Outbreak - Republic of the Sudan

    1 week ago ADVISORY

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans
February 9, 2016

There are no active tropical cyclones in the Pacific and Indian Oceans…or adjacent seas

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation…and an area of disturbed weather over the South Indian Ocean

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation…and an area of disturbed weather over the South Indian Ocean

However, there’s an area of disturbed weather over the South Indian Ocean, being referred to as Invest 96S, circled in red above…that has a high chance of developing

This tropical disturbance was located about 280 NM west-northwest of La Reunion Island, here’s a satellite image – and what the computer models are showing / and a near real wind profile

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows deep convection persisting over the western portion of a consolidating low level circulation center

Upper air analysis indicates a favorable environment, with low to moderate 15-20 knot wind shear…and strong radial outflow aloft

Global models predict further developing of this area into a tropical cyclone

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 27-32 knots

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is high

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation…and an area of disturbed weather over the South Pacific Ocean

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation…and two areas of disturbed weather over the Coral Sea and the South Pacific Ocean

There’s a second area of disturbed weather over the Coral Sea, being referred to as Invest 97P, circled in orange above…that has a medium chance of developing (the disturbance to the left on the Atlas image above)

This tropical disturbance was located about 723 NM west-northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia, here’s a satellite image – and what the computer models are showing / and a near real wind profile (the swirl to the west of Invest 98P)

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows a slowly consolidating low level circulation center, with persistent deep convection wrapping into the system

Upper air analysis indicates a favorable environment, with light to moderate 15-20 knot wind shear…and good dual outflow channel outflow

Global models are in good agreement on the development of this system

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20-25 knots

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium

Here’s information from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM)…Government of Australia:

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea

Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Tuesday 9 February 2016
for the period until midnight EST Friday 12 February 2016.

Potential Cyclones:

A slow moving low pressure system is currently located southeast of Papua New Guinea. Monsoon flow is expected to develop across the northern Coral Sea this week, which may result in some intensification of the system on Thursday and Friday. However, upper atmospheric conditions are not expected to be conducive for tropical cyclone development.

The low is expected to remain well offshore and forecast to move southeast later in the week. This system does not pose a threat to the Queensland coast.


~~~
Finally, there’s yet another area of disturbed weather over the South Pacific Ocean, being referred to as Invest 98P, circled in yellow above…that has a low chance of developing
(the disturbance to the right on the Atlas image above)

This tropical disturbance was located about 470 NM east-southeast Honiara, Soloman Islands, here’s a satellite image – and what the computer models are showing / and a near real wind profile (the swirl to the east of Invest 97P)

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows a broad low level circulation center, with flaring deep convection converging towards the center

Upper air analysis indicates a marginal environment, with light to moderate 10-20 knot wind shear…and good outflow

Global models are in fair agreement on the gradual development of this system

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low

 

Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area