Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

February 9, 2016
  • Winter Storm - Northern Rockies and Plains, United States

    28 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    42 minutes ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 141km W of Abepura, Indonesia

    5 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - Warner Robins, GA Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Upper Midwestern, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Floods - Upper Midwestern, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Bor, Jungoli - South Sudan

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - N of Nkawkaw, Eastern - Ghana

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - S of Ndele, Bamingui-Bangoran - Central African Republic

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Shishaldin, United States

    1 hour ago WATCH

  • Tropical Cyclone - Tino

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Victoria, Australia

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Northeastern, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Niquen Commune, Chile

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - South Lyon--Howell, MI Region, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Taal, Philippines

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Northwestern, United States

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Miami, OK Region, United States

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Jackson, AL Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Osceola, AR Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Kuchinoerabujima, Japan

    4 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Asosan, Japan

    4 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Jamestown, NY Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Paducah, KY--IL Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.4 - 8km S of Indios, Puerto Rico

    1 week ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - E of Corumba, Mato Grosso do Sul - Brazil

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Winter Storm - Alaska, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Central, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Oconto, WI Region, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Defiance, OH Region, United States

    7 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Blountstown, FL Region, United States

    7 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Watertown, NY Region, United States

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    14 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 100km NE of Alotau, Papua New Guinea

    17 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    19 hours ago ADVISORY

  • High Winds - British Columbia, Canada

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Manitoba, Canada

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - New Brunswick, Canada

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - 166km E of Raoul Island, New Zealand

    19 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Southeastern, United States

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.3 - 178km ESE of Raoul Island, New Zealand

    20 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 124km SSW of Tual, Indonesia

    20 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Minneapolis--St. Paul, MN--WI Region, United States

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Florence, SC Region, United States

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Northwest Territories, Canada

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Nova Scotia, Canada

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Nunavut, Canada

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Northern Ontario, Canada

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Prince Edward Island, Canada

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southwestern South Africa

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Muscat, Oman

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Northern Rockes and Plains, United States

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Southwestern United States

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Germany

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Germany

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Finland

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northwestern Italy

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Central Switzerland

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - New South Wales, Australia

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Angol Commune, Chile

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northeastern Peru

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Southern Argentina

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Southern Brazil

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Mozambique, Malawi, and eastern Zambia

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Central Afghanistan

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Pakistan

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Mexico

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - England, United Kingdom

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Southern Switzerland

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Wales, United Kingdom

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southwestern Iran

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Northwestern United States

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Idaho, United States

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Wyoming, United States

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Utah, United States

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Montana, United States

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - California, United States

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Western Canada

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central Peru

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Peru

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Brazil

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Samarinda City, Indonesia

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Northern India

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Waterton Lakes National Park, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Southern Quebec, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - South Australia, Australia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.9 - Ascension Island region

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo/Uganda

    7 months ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Chillán commune, Chile

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Central Chile

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storm - Northern Paraguay

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Cabo Delgado, Mozambique

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Glacier National Park, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Little Yoho National Park, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Banff, Yoho, Kootenay National Park, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanches - Northern Pakistan

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - New South Wales, Australia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Northern India

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Northern India

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Zambezi Region, Nambia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northwestern Angola

    2 days ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Western Peru

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Zimbabwe and Mozambique

    2 days ago WATCH

  • Floods - Northern Madagascar

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Central Asia

    2 days ago WATCH

  • Winter Storms - Western and Southern Afghanistan

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nishinoshima, Japan

    3 days ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Krakatau, Indonesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus – China

    4 days ago INFORMATION

  • Measles Outbreak - Democratic Republic of the Congo

    1 week ago INFORMATION

  • Yellow Fever - Nigeria

    1 month ago ADVISORY

  • Dengue Outbreak - Philippines

    2 weeks ago INFORMATION

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans
February 9, 2016

There are no active tropical cyclones in the Pacific and Indian Oceans…or adjacent seas

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation…and an area of disturbed weather over the South Indian Ocean

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation…and an area of disturbed weather over the South Indian Ocean

However, there’s an area of disturbed weather over the South Indian Ocean, being referred to as Invest 96S, circled in red above…that has a high chance of developing

This tropical disturbance was located about 280 NM west-northwest of La Reunion Island, here’s a satellite image – and what the computer models are showing / and a near real wind profile

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows deep convection persisting over the western portion of a consolidating low level circulation center

Upper air analysis indicates a favorable environment, with low to moderate 15-20 knot wind shear…and strong radial outflow aloft

Global models predict further developing of this area into a tropical cyclone

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 27-32 knots

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is high

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation…and an area of disturbed weather over the South Pacific Ocean

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation…and two areas of disturbed weather over the Coral Sea and the South Pacific Ocean

There’s a second area of disturbed weather over the Coral Sea, being referred to as Invest 97P, circled in orange above…that has a medium chance of developing (the disturbance to the left on the Atlas image above)

This tropical disturbance was located about 723 NM west-northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia, here’s a satellite image – and what the computer models are showing / and a near real wind profile (the swirl to the west of Invest 98P)

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows a slowly consolidating low level circulation center, with persistent deep convection wrapping into the system

Upper air analysis indicates a favorable environment, with light to moderate 15-20 knot wind shear…and good dual outflow channel outflow

Global models are in good agreement on the development of this system

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20-25 knots

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium

Here’s information from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM)…Government of Australia:

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea

Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Tuesday 9 February 2016
for the period until midnight EST Friday 12 February 2016.

Potential Cyclones:

A slow moving low pressure system is currently located southeast of Papua New Guinea. Monsoon flow is expected to develop across the northern Coral Sea this week, which may result in some intensification of the system on Thursday and Friday. However, upper atmospheric conditions are not expected to be conducive for tropical cyclone development.

The low is expected to remain well offshore and forecast to move southeast later in the week. This system does not pose a threat to the Queensland coast.


~~~
Finally, there’s yet another area of disturbed weather over the South Pacific Ocean, being referred to as Invest 98P, circled in yellow above…that has a low chance of developing
(the disturbance to the right on the Atlas image above)

This tropical disturbance was located about 470 NM east-southeast Honiara, Soloman Islands, here’s a satellite image – and what the computer models are showing / and a near real wind profile (the swirl to the east of Invest 97P)

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows a broad low level circulation center, with flaring deep convection converging towards the center

Upper air analysis indicates a marginal environment, with light to moderate 10-20 knot wind shear…and good outflow

Global models are in fair agreement on the gradual development of this system

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low

 

Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area