Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

February 10, 2016
  • Volcano - Sangeang Api, Indonesia

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    3 hours ago WATCH

  • Flood - Huron, SD Region, United States

    12 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    15 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Santa Maria, Guatemala

    15 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SE of Wa, Upper West - Ghana

    44 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfires - Western Australia, Australia

    47 minutes ago WATCH

  • Winter Storm - Northwestern, United States

    52 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Highsurf - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Highsurf - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Asosan, Japan

    3 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Winter Storm - Northern Rockies and Plains, United States

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Southwestern, United States

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    4 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Winter Storm - Upper Midwestern, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - N of Ravensthorpe, Western Australia - Australia

    6 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NE of Lithgow, New South Wales - Australia

    9 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - E of Karumba, Queensland - Australia

    9 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Batemans Bay, New South Wales - Australia

    9 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Klyuchevskoy, Russia

    13 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Highsurf - Warning (Hawaiian Islands)

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Storm - Eastern and Central Paraguay

    18 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Peru

    18 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Trinidad _ Tobago

    18 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Pakistan

    18 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern and Central India

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Southern France

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern France

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds -Central Spain

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Northern Spain

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Sardegna, Italy

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Switzerland

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Central and Eastern Switzerland

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Shishaldin, United States

    19 hours ago WATCH

  • Avalanche - Central Idaho, United States

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Central Washington and Northern Oregon, United States

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Southern Wyoming

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southeastern South Africa

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Badakshan Province, Afghanistan

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Malé, Maldives

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Central Canada

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Yukon, Canada

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northern Bolivia

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Dengue Fever Outbreak - Republic of the Sudan

    2 weeks ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Logone-et-Chari, Cameroon

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Sabah, Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Narino Department, Colombia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Burundi

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Madagascar

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Japan

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Argentina

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Uganda

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Somalia and Kenya

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Musanze, Rwanda

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - South Africa

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Eastern South Korea

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Winter Storms - Central Asia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - White Island, New Zealand

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Southern Germany

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - England, United Kingdom

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Northern Utah, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Western Wyoming, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Waterton Lakes National Park, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Banff, Yoho and Kootenay National Park, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Little Yoho National Park, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Northwestern Montana

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Valparaiso Municipality, Chile

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Floods - Johor State, Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storm - Eastern Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Dengue Fever Outbreak - Pakistan

    3 weeks ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.9 - Izu Islands, Japan region

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Etna, Italy

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sheveluch, Russia

    3 days ago ADVISORY

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo/Uganda

    5 months ago WARNING

  • Dengue Outbreak - Philippines

    4 months ago ADVISORY

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans
February 10, 2016

Tropical Cyclone 10S is now active…located about 266 NM southwest of St. Denis in the south Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 11P is now active…located about 463 NM west-northwest of Suva, Fiji

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 10S

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 10S

Tropical Cyclone 10S is now active to the west of southern Madagascar…on a strengthening trend

Here’s a satellite image of this strengthening tropical cyclone, what the computer models are showing…and a near real time wind profile (spinning clockwise in the southern hemisphere)

This tropical cyclone is located about 266 NM southwest of St. Denis in the South Indian Ocean

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery indicates a consolidating low level circulation center with tightly curved banding wrapping into a well defined center.

TC 10S is expected to track generally southward through this forecast period.

Weather model guidance is in good agreement, forecasting intensification, peaking at near 50 knots within 24 hours…then quickly weakening as it encounters increasing wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures.

TC 10S should dissipate by 72 hours.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #1 were 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 11P

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 11P

Tropical Cyclone 11P is now active in the southwest Pacific…rapidly intensifying

Here’s a satellite image of this strengthening tropical cyclone, what the computer models are showing…and a near real time wind profile (spinning clockwise in the southern hemisphere)

This tropical cyclone is located about 463 NM southwest of west-northwest of Suva, Fiji

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows a rapidly consolidating low level circulation center with improved convective cloud banding…wrapping into a well defined center

TC 11P is forecast to track poleward through 72 hours. Thereafter, this system should encounter strong subtropical westerlies aloft, which will weaken the cyclone…while turning it eastward.

TC 11P is forecast to rapidly intensify to a peak of 105 knots by 60 hours, due to favorable environment conditions. Significant weakening is expected one this storm moves south of 25S latitude…due to cooler sea surface temperatures and strong wind shear aloft.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #1 were 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation…and an area of disturbed weather over the Coral Sea

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation…and an area of disturbed weather over the Coral Sea

Finally, there continues to be an area of disturbed weather over the Coral Sea, being referred to as Invest 97P, circled in red above…that has a high chance of developing

This tropical disturbance was located about 775 NM west-northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia, here’s a satellite image – and what the computer models are showing 

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows patchy deep convection developing over a consolidating low level circulation center

Upper air analysis indicates a favorable environment, with light to moderate 10-20 knot wind shear…and a strong poleward outflow channel

Global models predict continued development of this system over the next 24 hours

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25-30 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is high

 

Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 11P 

JTWC textual Warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 10S 

JTWC textual Warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area