Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

February 10, 2016
  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 34 km SSW of El Tocuyo, Venezuela

    11 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Manchester, NH Region, United States

    9 minutes ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    2 hours ago WATCH

  • Wildfire - N of Chimoio, Manica - Mozambique

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SE of Calulo, Cuanza Sul - Angola

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Huron, SD Region, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - S of Batagay, Chukot - Russia

    2 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - E of Sangar, Chukot - Russia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - S of Verkhoyansk, Chukot - Russia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of Verkhoyansk, Chukot - Russia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of Tunguskhaya, Chukot - Russia

    2 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - Tucson (Bighorn Fire) , Arizona, United States

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - North Platte, NE Region, United States

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    4 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nishinoshima, Japan

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    5 hours ago WATCH

  • Wildfire - S of Batagay, Chukot - Russia

    8 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SE of Batagay, Chukot - Russia

    8 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SE of Batagay, Chukot - Russia

    8 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - south of the Kermadec Islands

    8 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - 253 km N of Fais, Micronesia

    10 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Tropical Cyclone - Cristina

    14 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 117 km E of Mutsu, Japan

    15 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 6.7 - 98 km N of Batang, Indonesia

    15 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 132 km WSW of Banda Aceh, Indonesia

    15 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Carthage, MS Region, United States

    15 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.3 - 9 km E of Villa El Carmen, Nicaragua

    18 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 285 km N of Fais, Micronesia

    16 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - South Sandwich Islands region

    23 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - Izu Islands, Japan region

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 6.2 - 257 km N of Fais, Micronesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - East Ukraine

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northern Pakistan

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - West Kalimantan, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern Japan

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Western Bulgaria

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Santa Clara County (Crews Fire), California, United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Northwestern Arizona, United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southeastern China

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - India

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - India

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southeastern Germany and Northwestern Austria

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Central Poland

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southeastern Nepal

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Central Nepal

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo

    1 week ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern Haiti

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Mexico

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Los Angeles County (Soledad Fire), California, United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Apache County (Wood Springs 2 Fire), Arizona, United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Sri Lanka

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Mongolia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Colombia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Marshall Islands

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Puerto Rico

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - US Virgin Islands

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Dominican Republic

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Southern Canada

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    3 months ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans
February 10, 2016

Tropical Cyclone 10S is now active…located about 266 NM southwest of St. Denis in the south Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 11P is now active…located about 463 NM west-northwest of Suva, Fiji

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 10S

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 10S

Tropical Cyclone 10S is now active to the west of southern Madagascar…on a strengthening trend

Here’s a satellite image of this strengthening tropical cyclone, what the computer models are showing…and a near real time wind profile (spinning clockwise in the southern hemisphere)

This tropical cyclone is located about 266 NM southwest of St. Denis in the South Indian Ocean

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery indicates a consolidating low level circulation center with tightly curved banding wrapping into a well defined center.

TC 10S is expected to track generally southward through this forecast period.

Weather model guidance is in good agreement, forecasting intensification, peaking at near 50 knots within 24 hours…then quickly weakening as it encounters increasing wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures.

TC 10S should dissipate by 72 hours.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #1 were 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 11P

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 11P

Tropical Cyclone 11P is now active in the southwest Pacific…rapidly intensifying

Here’s a satellite image of this strengthening tropical cyclone, what the computer models are showing…and a near real time wind profile (spinning clockwise in the southern hemisphere)

This tropical cyclone is located about 463 NM southwest of west-northwest of Suva, Fiji

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows a rapidly consolidating low level circulation center with improved convective cloud banding…wrapping into a well defined center

TC 11P is forecast to track poleward through 72 hours. Thereafter, this system should encounter strong subtropical westerlies aloft, which will weaken the cyclone…while turning it eastward.

TC 11P is forecast to rapidly intensify to a peak of 105 knots by 60 hours, due to favorable environment conditions. Significant weakening is expected one this storm moves south of 25S latitude…due to cooler sea surface temperatures and strong wind shear aloft.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #1 were 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation…and an area of disturbed weather over the Coral Sea

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation…and an area of disturbed weather over the Coral Sea

Finally, there continues to be an area of disturbed weather over the Coral Sea, being referred to as Invest 97P, circled in red above…that has a high chance of developing

This tropical disturbance was located about 775 NM west-northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia, here’s a satellite image – and what the computer models are showing 

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows patchy deep convection developing over a consolidating low level circulation center

Upper air analysis indicates a favorable environment, with light to moderate 10-20 knot wind shear…and a strong poleward outflow channel

Global models predict continued development of this system over the next 24 hours

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25-30 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is high

 

Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 11P 

JTWC textual Warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 10S 

JTWC textual Warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area