Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

February 11, 2016
  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    3 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Sangeang Api, Indonesia

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    10 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    4 hours ago WATCH

  • Highsurf - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    31 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Highsurf - Warning (Hawaiian Islands)

    31 minutes ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Alaska, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Asosan, Japan

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - SW of Birao, Vakaga - Central African Republic

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Malakal, Upper Nile - South Sudan

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - N of Ravensthorpe, Western Australia - Australia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - N of Ravensthorpe, Western Australia - Australia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of Grafton, New South Wales - Australia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Katoomba, New South Wales - Australia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Batemans Bay, New South Wales - Australia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Winter Storm - Western, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Queensland, Australia

    2 hours ago WATCH

  • Wildfire - W of Juan Jose Castelli, Chaco - Argentina

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Chos Malal, Neuquén - Argentina

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tropical Cyclone - Belna

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Northern Rockies and Plains, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Esperance, Western Australia - Australia

    5 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tropical Cyclone - Pawan

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Tropical Cyclone - Ambali

    11 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Flood - Nebraska City, NE Region, United States

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SW of Diapaga, Tapoa - Burkina Faso

    11 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Flood - Carmi, IL Region, United States

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - New South Wales, Australia

    16 hours ago WATCH

  • Floods - Eastern Brazil

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Cibitoke Province, Burundi

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern Angola

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Eastern Wyoming, United States

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Sierra Nevada, California, United States

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Little Yoho National Park, Canada

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Southern Germany

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Southeastern Germany

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Southern Argentina

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Uganda

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Djibouti City, Djibouti

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Bududa, Uganda

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Sironko, Uganda

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Cunene Province, Angola

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 164km WNW of Hihifo, Tonga

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Drought - Eastern South Korea

    16 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Storms - Southeastern New Zealand

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Central New Zealand

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - England, United Kingdom

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Banff, Yoho and Kootenay National Park, Canada

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Gunnison and Aspen, Colorado, United States

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Northern Utah, United States

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Western Wyoming, United States

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Southeastern Idaho, United States

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Glacier National Park, Canada

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Valparaiso Municipality, Chile

    17 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bolivia

    17 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Western Peru

    17 hours ago WARNING

  • Flooding - Northern Philippines

    17 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - South India

    17 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.7 - 173km NW of Hihifo, Tonga

    21 hours ago WATCH

  • Flood - Mitchell, SD Region, United States

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 63km NNE of Isangel, Vanuatu

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Drought - Southeastern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern Alaska, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands

    1 day ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Eastern New Mexico

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Western and Northern DR Congo

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Peru

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Somalia and Kenya

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Central Asia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Dengue Fever Outbreak - Pakistan

    2 weeks ago ADVISORY

  • Dengue Outbreak - Philippines

    3 months ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    3 days ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Etna, Italy

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo/Uganda

    5 months ago WARNING

  • Dengue Fever Outbreak - Republic of the Sudan

    1 week ago ADVISORY

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans
February 11, 2016

Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston) remains active…located about 398 NM west of Suva, Fiji

Tropical Cyclone 12P (Tatiana) remains active…located about 559 NM west-northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia

Tropical Cyclone 10S (Daya) remains active…located about 361 NM south of St. Denis, La Reunion Island

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclones 11P and 12P

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclones 11P (Winston) and 12P (Tatiana)

Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston) remains active in the southwest Pacific…rapidly intensifying

Here’s a satellite image of this strengthening tropical cyclone, what the computer models are showing…and a near real time wind profile (spinning clockwise in the southern hemisphere)

This tropical cyclone is located about 398 NM west of Suva, Fiji

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows deep convection spiraling into a tight, cloud covered low level circulation center. Meanwhile, microwave imagery confirms the deep convection wrapping into a small and well defined eye feature.

TC 11P is currently in a very favorable environment, with extremely warm sea surface temperatures, very good radial outflow, and light to moderate wind shear of approximately 15-20 knots

TC Winston is forecast to track southward through 36 hours, and then veer towards the east…then after 96 hours turn back towards the south again.

Over the next 48 hours, Winston will undergo a period of rapid intensification, as it tracks over a very high sea surface temperature, and lighter wind shear aloft. Thereafter, TC 11P will begin a slow weakening trend as it moves into a less favorable environment.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #3 were 55 knots with gusts of 70 knots

Tropical Cyclone 12P (Tatiana)
remains active in the Coral Sea…on a gradual and brief strengthening trend

Here’s a satellite image of this strengthening tropical cyclone…along with what the computer models are showing

This tropical cyclone is located about 599 NM west-northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery depicts an area of deep convection wrapping tightly into a compact low level circulation center…mostly confined to the western semi-circle. Meanwhile, microwave imagery shows a well defined low level cloud bands…supporting a weak eye feature.

Upper air analysis continues  to indicate the presence of a strong poleward outflow channel, with moderately strong 15-20 knot wind shear

At the time of this writing, this system was moving east-southeastward, although within 24 hours, a turn towards the south will occur.

A short period of intensification will occur over the next 12-24 hours, thereafter, increasing wind shear aloft, coupled with increasingly cooler sea surface temperatures, will cause TC Tatiana to weaken…and dissipation is expected by 72 hours.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #2 were 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation...tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 10S (Daya)...and an area of disturbed weather

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation…tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 10S (Daya)…and an area of disturbed weather

Tropical Cyclone 10S (Daya) is now active to the west of the southern tip Madagascar

Here’s a satellite image of this strengthening tropical cyclone, what the computer models are showing…and a near real time wind profile (spinning clockwise in the southern hemisphere)

This tropical cyclone is located about 361 NM south of St. Denis, La Reunion Island in the South Indian Ocean

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows the system has maintained a symmetric convective signature, with moderate convection being mostly confined to the south and western quadrants.

Upper level analysis indicates TC Daya is beginning to feel the effects of higher wind shear…and has likely peaked in intensity, and begun a weakening phase

Daya is currently moving southeastward, and this track is expected to continue…with addition forward speed

TC 10S is forecast to weaken rapidly after 12 hours, as it encounters an increasingly unfavorable environment of high wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures…and should dissipate within 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #3 were 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots


Finally, there continues to be an area of disturbed weather in the South Indian Ocean, being referred to as Invest 99S, circled in orange above (well to the upper right of TC Daya)…that has a medium chance of developing

This tropical disturbance was located about 150 NM northwest of Cocos Island, here’s a satellite image – and what the computer models are showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows a band of deep convection flaring along the northern periphery of a strengthening low level circulation center

Upper air analysis shows moderately strong 20-30 knots of wind shear, being offset by a strong poleward outflow channel.

Recent scatterometry data indicates the presence of 30 knot winds on the western periphery.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25-30 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium

 

Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston) 

JTWC textual Warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Tropical Cyclone 12P (Tatiana)

JTWC textual Warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 10S (Daya) 

JTWC textual Warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area