Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

February 11, 2016
  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 403 km W of Haveluloto, Tonga

    6 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Central, United States

    14 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    33 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    41 minutes ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Klyuchevskoy, Russia

    43 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Asosan, Japan

    40 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Black River Falls, WI Region, United States

    46 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Pine Creek, Northern Territory - Australia

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SE of Champoton, Campeche - Mexico

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Floods - Southeastern, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - South Boston, VA Region, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Traverse City, MI Region, United States

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.1 - 79 km NW of Port-Vila, Vanuatu

    6 hours ago WATCH

  • Flood - Davenport, IA--IL Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Flood - Hutchinson, KS Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Osceola, AR Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Paris, TN Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Pocahontas, AR Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Roanoke Rapids, NC Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Miami, OK Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Karymsky, Russia

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.4 - 89 km SSW of Merizo Village, Guam

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 2 km NW of Bagulin, Philippines

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.9 - 121 km SE of ‘Ohonua, Tonga

    6 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.4 - 784 km SE of Baie aux Huîtres, Mauritius

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.8 - 702 km S of ‘Ohonua, Tonga

    6 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 14 km WNW of Ambunti, Papua New Guinea

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 2406 km SW of Edinburgh of the Seven Seas, Saint Helena

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 180 km SSW of Gizo, Solomon Islands

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - 167 km ESE of San Jose Village, Northern Mariana Islands

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 17 km SSE of Suklayin, Philippines

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 12 km SSW of Kakching, India

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 92 km NNW of Port-Vila, Vanuatu

    6 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 91 km NW of Port-Vila, Vanuatu

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 96 km NW of Port-Vila, Vanuatu

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - 12 km E of Hirara, Japan

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 3 km NNW of Dogonbadan, Iran

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.3 - 32 km ESE of Mina, Nevada

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - 732 km WNW of Hanga Roa, Chile

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 92 km S of Néa Anatolí, Greece

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 27 km W of Foxton, New Zealand

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - 459 km ENE of Kuril’sk, Russia

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.9 - 1149 km S of Edinburgh of the Seven Seas, Saint Helena

    6 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 29 km WNW of Foxton, New Zealand

    6 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 167 km SE of Katsuura, Japan

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 107 km SW of La Esperanza (El Zapotal), Mexico

    6 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - 379 km SSE of Shimoda, Japan

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 6.1 - 171 km ESE of La Playa, Mexico

    6 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - 66 km E of Puente Alto, Chile

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.3 - 81 km S of Néa Anatolí, Greece

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 358 km ESE of Isangel, Vanuatu

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 2395 km SW of Edinburgh of the Seven Seas, Saint Helena

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 641 km NNE of Port Mathurin, Mauritius

    6 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - 295 km WNW of Tofino, Canada

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.3 - 279 km ENE of Lospalos, Timor Leste

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 87 km NNE of Nago, Japan

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 194 km SSW of Padang, Indonesia

    7 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 58 km SSE of Ierápetra, Greece

    7 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    8 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Central Honduras

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bangui, Central African Republic

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - India

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Mexico

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Mexico

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Southeastern Canada

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Quebec, Canada

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northeastern India

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Peninsular Malaysia

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - East Kalimantan, Indonesia

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    13 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    16 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Mitchell, SD Region, United States

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Flood - Nebraska City, NE Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Caruthersville, MO Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern Africa

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Uganda

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Somalia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern Madagascar

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Kenya

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Ethiopia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - DR Congo

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Mariana Islands

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Marshall Islands

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northern Vietnam

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - West Sulawesi, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - South Sulawesi, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - East Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - South Kalimantan, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Ebeko, Russia

    2 days ago ADVISORY

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Storms - Guatemala

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Tornado - Sancti Spiritus, Cuba

    2 days ago INFORMATION

  • Floods - Central Region, Cuba

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - India

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Yellow Fever - Nigeria

    5 months ago ADVISORY

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo/Uganda

    11 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Measles Outbreak - Democratic Republic of the Congo

    4 months ago INFORMATION

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans
February 11, 2016

Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston) remains active…located about 398 NM west of Suva, Fiji

Tropical Cyclone 12P (Tatiana) remains active…located about 559 NM west-northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia

Tropical Cyclone 10S (Daya) remains active…located about 361 NM south of St. Denis, La Reunion Island

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclones 11P and 12P

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclones 11P (Winston) and 12P (Tatiana)

Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston) remains active in the southwest Pacific…rapidly intensifying

Here’s a satellite image of this strengthening tropical cyclone, what the computer models are showing…and a near real time wind profile (spinning clockwise in the southern hemisphere)

This tropical cyclone is located about 398 NM west of Suva, Fiji

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows deep convection spiraling into a tight, cloud covered low level circulation center. Meanwhile, microwave imagery confirms the deep convection wrapping into a small and well defined eye feature.

TC 11P is currently in a very favorable environment, with extremely warm sea surface temperatures, very good radial outflow, and light to moderate wind shear of approximately 15-20 knots

TC Winston is forecast to track southward through 36 hours, and then veer towards the east…then after 96 hours turn back towards the south again.

Over the next 48 hours, Winston will undergo a period of rapid intensification, as it tracks over a very high sea surface temperature, and lighter wind shear aloft. Thereafter, TC 11P will begin a slow weakening trend as it moves into a less favorable environment.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #3 were 55 knots with gusts of 70 knots

Tropical Cyclone 12P (Tatiana)
remains active in the Coral Sea…on a gradual and brief strengthening trend

Here’s a satellite image of this strengthening tropical cyclone…along with what the computer models are showing

This tropical cyclone is located about 599 NM west-northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery depicts an area of deep convection wrapping tightly into a compact low level circulation center…mostly confined to the western semi-circle. Meanwhile, microwave imagery shows a well defined low level cloud bands…supporting a weak eye feature.

Upper air analysis continues  to indicate the presence of a strong poleward outflow channel, with moderately strong 15-20 knot wind shear

At the time of this writing, this system was moving east-southeastward, although within 24 hours, a turn towards the south will occur.

A short period of intensification will occur over the next 12-24 hours, thereafter, increasing wind shear aloft, coupled with increasingly cooler sea surface temperatures, will cause TC Tatiana to weaken…and dissipation is expected by 72 hours.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #2 were 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation...tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 10S (Daya)...and an area of disturbed weather

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation…tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 10S (Daya)…and an area of disturbed weather

Tropical Cyclone 10S (Daya) is now active to the west of the southern tip Madagascar

Here’s a satellite image of this strengthening tropical cyclone, what the computer models are showing…and a near real time wind profile (spinning clockwise in the southern hemisphere)

This tropical cyclone is located about 361 NM south of St. Denis, La Reunion Island in the South Indian Ocean

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows the system has maintained a symmetric convective signature, with moderate convection being mostly confined to the south and western quadrants.

Upper level analysis indicates TC Daya is beginning to feel the effects of higher wind shear…and has likely peaked in intensity, and begun a weakening phase

Daya is currently moving southeastward, and this track is expected to continue…with addition forward speed

TC 10S is forecast to weaken rapidly after 12 hours, as it encounters an increasingly unfavorable environment of high wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures…and should dissipate within 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #3 were 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots


Finally, there continues to be an area of disturbed weather in the South Indian Ocean, being referred to as Invest 99S, circled in orange above (well to the upper right of TC Daya)…that has a medium chance of developing

This tropical disturbance was located about 150 NM northwest of Cocos Island, here’s a satellite image – and what the computer models are showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows a band of deep convection flaring along the northern periphery of a strengthening low level circulation center

Upper air analysis shows moderately strong 20-30 knots of wind shear, being offset by a strong poleward outflow channel.

Recent scatterometry data indicates the presence of 30 knot winds on the western periphery.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25-30 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium

 

Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston) 

JTWC textual Warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Tropical Cyclone 12P (Tatiana)

JTWC textual Warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 10S (Daya) 

JTWC textual Warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area