Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

February 12, 2016
  • Tropical Storm - Cristina

    31 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Baltimore, MD Region, United States

    7 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Washoe County (Mahogany Fire), Nevada, United States

    26 minutes ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Southern Canada

    30 minutes ago WARNING

  • Storms - Sarawak and Sabah, Malaysia

    37 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Ibu, Indonesia

    44 minutes ago WATCH

  • Wildfire - Santa Clara County (Crews Fire), California, United States

    47 minutes ago WARNING

  • Storms - Peninsular Malaysia

    46 minutes ago WARNING

  • Floods - Sula Islands, Indonesia

    49 minutes ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.6 - 93 km N of Batang, Indonesia

    3 hours ago WATCH

  • Floods - Northwestern England

    59 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Tucson (Bighorn Fire) , Arizona, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Brazil

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Storms - Mexico

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Vietnam

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Floods - Sarawak, Malaysia

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - Tyler, TX Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Storms - Central Ontario, Canada

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Los Angeles County (Soledad Fire), California, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Ebeko, Russia

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Floods/ Landslides - Central and Western Nepal

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern Japan

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SE of Calulo, Cuanza Sul - Angola

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Malanje - Angola

    2 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - SW of Malanje - Angola

    2 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Nishinoshima, Japan

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - S of Severobaykalsk, Buryat - Russia

    3 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of Ust-Ulimsk, Irkutsk - Russia

    3 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Chernyshevskiy, Chukot - Russia

    3 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - E of Pine Creek, Northern Territory - Australia

    3 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    4 hours ago WATCH

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - State of Yap, Federated States of Micronesia

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - South Sandwich Islands region

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Tropical Cyclone - Edouard

    6 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Udachnyy, Chukot - Russia

    6 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - Izu Islands, Japan region

    7 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - Mariana Islands region

    13 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 6.2 - 254 km N of Fais, Micronesia

    7 hours ago WATCH

  • Wildfire - SW of Malanje - Angola

    8 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 174 km NNE of Colonia, Micronesia

    10 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Mitchell, SD Region, United States

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Philadelphia, MS Region, United States

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - W of Ust-Ulimsk, Irkutsk - Russia

    18 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.9 - 33 km ENE of Port-Olry, Vanuatu

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 219 km S of Sand Point, Alaska

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Karymsky, Russia

    2 days ago ADVISORY

  • Storms - Pakistan

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Assam, India

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Puerto Rico

    5 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - India

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Guatemala

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Mexico

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Southern Brazil

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Sabah, Malaysia

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    5 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Dominican Republic

    5 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern Haiti

    5 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - US Virgin Islands

    5 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    5 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    5 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    5 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Mariana Islands

    5 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Marshall Islands

    5 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    5 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo

    1 week ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans
February 12, 2016

Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston) remains active…located about 335 NM east-northeast of Noumea, New Caledonia

Tropical Cyclone 12P (Tatiana) remains active…located about 428 NM west-northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclones 11P (Winston) and 12P (Tatiana)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclones 11P (Winston) and 12P (Tatiana)

Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston) remains active in the southwest Pacific…a very strong storm that may reach the equivalent of super typhoon status soon

Here’s a satellite image of this strengthening tropical cyclone, what the computer models are showing…and a near real time wind profile (spinning clockwise in the southern hemisphere)

This tropical cyclone is located about 335 NM east-northeast of Noumea, New Caledonia

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows deep convection wrapping into an extremely small, cloud free eye feature. 

This strong system has undergone a period of rapid intensification (RI) of 40 knots in the past 12 hours…having currently reached 105 knot sustained winds.

TC 11P is currently tracking through a very favorable environment, with very warm sea surface temperatures, very strong radial outflow, and light wind shear of approximately 5-10 knots. These very favorable conditions are expected to continue through the next 12-24 hours, allowing Winston to continue to rapidly strengthen.


TC Winston is forecast to track southward through 36 hours, and then veer towards the east and northeast…then after 72 hours take on an east-northeast track through the remainder of the forecast period.

After the near term intensification, TC Winston will slowly weaken as it moves over areas of lower ocean temperatures, while at the same time experience increasing wind shear aloft. However, it will likely maintain its strength through the end of the forecast period, as the ocean temperatures will again increase, while wind shear remains moderately strong.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #5 were 105 knots with gusts of 130 knots

Tropical Cyclone 12P (Tatiana)
remains active in the Coral Sea…now on a gradual weakening trend

Here’s a satellite image of this weakening tropical cyclone…along with what the computer models are showing…and a near real time wind profile

This tropical cyclone is located about 428 NM west-northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery depicts an area of cold dense overcast obscuring the low level circulation center. These images also show a slightly north to south elongated center, with shallow cloud bands of convection confined to the western quadrant of the system.

Upper air analysis reveals that TC Tatiana has likely peaked in strength, as the system has moved into a more marginal environment, with moderate wind shear of 20-30 knots, and is increasingly being limited by exhaust from relatively close TC Winston.

TC Tatiana is forecast to track southward as it interacts with a trough of low pressure moving in from the west…which will completely surround Tatiana within 2-days.

As Tatiana moves south beyond 24 hours, wind shear will rapidly increase and sea surface temperatures will lower…resulting in rapid dissipation after 36 hours.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #4 were 55 knots with gusts of 70 knots

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation…and an area of disturbed weather

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation…and an area of disturbed weather

Finally, there continues to be an area of disturbed weather in the South Indian Ocean, being referred to as Invest 99S, circled in red above…that has a high chance of developing

This tropical disturbance was located about 65 NM north-northeast of Cocos Island, here’s a satellite image – and what the computer models are showing…and a near real time wind profile

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows increasingly organized deep convective cloud bands wrapping into an existing low level circulation center.

Upper air analysis shows the system moving under moderately strong 20-25 knots of wind shear, being offset by a strong poleward and equatorial outflow channels.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25-30 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is high

 

Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston) 

JTWC textual Warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Tropical Cyclone 12P (Tatiana)

JTWC textual Warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area