Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

February 12, 2016
  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    16 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Winter Storm - Northern Rockies and Plains, United States

    15 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    4 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Sangeang Api, Indonesia

    16 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Huron, SD Region, United States

    55 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Santa Maria, Guatemala

    58 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SE of Wa, Upper West - Ghana

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfires - Western Australia, Australia

    1 hour ago WATCH

  • Winter Storm - Northwestern, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    2 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Highsurf - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    2 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Asosan, Japan

    4 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Winter Storm - Southwestern, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Winter Storm - Upper Midwestern, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - N of Ravensthorpe, Western Australia - Australia

    7 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NE of Lithgow, New South Wales - Australia

    10 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - E of Karumba, Queensland - Australia

    10 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Batemans Bay, New South Wales - Australia

    10 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Klyuchevskoy, Russia

    13 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Storm - Eastern and Central Paraguay

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Peru

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Trinidad _ Tobago

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Pakistan

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern and Central India

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Southern France

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern France

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds -Central Spain

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Northern Spain

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Sardegna, Italy

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Switzerland

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Central and Eastern Switzerland

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Shishaldin, United States

    20 hours ago WATCH

  • Avalanche - Central Idaho, United States

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Central Washington and Northern Oregon, United States

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Southern Wyoming

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southeastern South Africa

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslide - Badakshan Province, Afghanistan

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Malé, Maldives

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Central Canada

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Yukon, Canada

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northern Bolivia

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Dengue Fever Outbreak - Republic of the Sudan

    2 weeks ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Logone-et-Chari, Cameroon

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Sabah, Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Narino Department, Colombia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Burundi

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Madagascar

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Japan

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Argentina

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Uganda

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Somalia and Kenya

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Musanze, Rwanda

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - South Africa

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Eastern South Korea

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Winter Storms - Central Asia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - White Island, New Zealand

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Southern Germany

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - England, United Kingdom

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Northern Utah, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Western Wyoming, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Waterton Lakes National Park, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Banff, Yoho and Kootenay National Park, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Little Yoho National Park, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Northwestern Montana

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Valparaiso Municipality, Chile

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Floods - Johor State, Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storm - Eastern Malaysia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Dengue Fever Outbreak - Pakistan

    3 weeks ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.9 - Izu Islands, Japan region

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Etna, Italy

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sheveluch, Russia

    3 days ago ADVISORY

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo/Uganda

    5 months ago WARNING

  • Dengue Outbreak - Philippines

    4 months ago ADVISORY

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans
February 12, 2016

Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston) remains active…located about 335 NM east-northeast of Noumea, New Caledonia

Tropical Cyclone 12P (Tatiana) remains active…located about 428 NM west-northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclones 11P (Winston) and 12P (Tatiana)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclones 11P (Winston) and 12P (Tatiana)

Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston) remains active in the southwest Pacific…a very strong storm that may reach the equivalent of super typhoon status soon

Here’s a satellite image of this strengthening tropical cyclone, what the computer models are showing…and a near real time wind profile (spinning clockwise in the southern hemisphere)

This tropical cyclone is located about 335 NM east-northeast of Noumea, New Caledonia

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows deep convection wrapping into an extremely small, cloud free eye feature. 

This strong system has undergone a period of rapid intensification (RI) of 40 knots in the past 12 hours…having currently reached 105 knot sustained winds.

TC 11P is currently tracking through a very favorable environment, with very warm sea surface temperatures, very strong radial outflow, and light wind shear of approximately 5-10 knots. These very favorable conditions are expected to continue through the next 12-24 hours, allowing Winston to continue to rapidly strengthen.


TC Winston is forecast to track southward through 36 hours, and then veer towards the east and northeast…then after 72 hours take on an east-northeast track through the remainder of the forecast period.

After the near term intensification, TC Winston will slowly weaken as it moves over areas of lower ocean temperatures, while at the same time experience increasing wind shear aloft. However, it will likely maintain its strength through the end of the forecast period, as the ocean temperatures will again increase, while wind shear remains moderately strong.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #5 were 105 knots with gusts of 130 knots

Tropical Cyclone 12P (Tatiana)
remains active in the Coral Sea…now on a gradual weakening trend

Here’s a satellite image of this weakening tropical cyclone…along with what the computer models are showing…and a near real time wind profile

This tropical cyclone is located about 428 NM west-northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery depicts an area of cold dense overcast obscuring the low level circulation center. These images also show a slightly north to south elongated center, with shallow cloud bands of convection confined to the western quadrant of the system.

Upper air analysis reveals that TC Tatiana has likely peaked in strength, as the system has moved into a more marginal environment, with moderate wind shear of 20-30 knots, and is increasingly being limited by exhaust from relatively close TC Winston.

TC Tatiana is forecast to track southward as it interacts with a trough of low pressure moving in from the west…which will completely surround Tatiana within 2-days.

As Tatiana moves south beyond 24 hours, wind shear will rapidly increase and sea surface temperatures will lower…resulting in rapid dissipation after 36 hours.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #4 were 55 knots with gusts of 70 knots

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation…and an area of disturbed weather

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation…and an area of disturbed weather

Finally, there continues to be an area of disturbed weather in the South Indian Ocean, being referred to as Invest 99S, circled in red above…that has a high chance of developing

This tropical disturbance was located about 65 NM north-northeast of Cocos Island, here’s a satellite image – and what the computer models are showing…and a near real time wind profile

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows increasingly organized deep convective cloud bands wrapping into an existing low level circulation center.

Upper air analysis shows the system moving under moderately strong 20-25 knots of wind shear, being offset by a strong poleward and equatorial outflow channels.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25-30 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is high

 

Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston) 

JTWC textual Warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Tropical Cyclone 12P (Tatiana)

JTWC textual Warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area