Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

February 16, 2016
  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 17km S of Searles Valley, CA

    23 hours ago WATCH

  • Flood - Woodstock, VA Region, United States

    6 minutes ago WARNING

  • Flood - Davenport, IA--IL Region, United States

    8 minutes ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central, United States

    25 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    26 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Tropical Depression - Cristobal

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    52 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - E of Malanje - Angola

    42 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - E of Pine Creek, Northern Territory - Australia

    50 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - Baton Rouge, LA Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - Kinston, NC Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.4 - 134 km NNE of Tobelo, Indonesia

    18 hours ago WATCH

  • Flood - Caruthersville, MO Region, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Lebanon, PA Region, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Osceola, AR Region, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Highsurf - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    2 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Southeastern, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Roanoke Rapids, NC Region, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Owensboro, KY Region, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    3 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Asosan, Japan

    3 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    2 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    2 months ago WARNING

  • Floods - Pune District, India

    7 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southeastern Mexico

    7 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Yemen

    7 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Solano County (Wildlife Fire), California, United States

    7 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Germany

    7 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Italy

    7 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northern Sweden

    7 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Vietnam

    7 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Brunei

    7 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northeastern Argentina

    7 hours ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    2 months ago WARNING

  • Storms - Pakistan

    7 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - India

    7 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Guatemala

    7 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - El Salvador

    7 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - El Salvador

    7 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central Norway

    7 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Mexico

    7 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Mexico

    7 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Vietnam

    7 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    7 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Peninsular Malaysia

    7 hours ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    2 months ago WARNING

  • Measles Outbreak - Democratic Republic of the Congo

    4 months ago INFORMATION

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Yellow Fever - Nigeria

    5 months ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 6.8 - 48 km SSW of San Pedro de Atacama, Chile

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 363 km NNE of Saipan, Northern Mariana Islands

    9 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.7 - 167 km N of Labuan Lombok, Indonesia

    10 hours ago WATCH

  • Flood - Williston, ND Region, United States

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    11 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Huron, SD Region, United States

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 122 km WNW of Ternate, Indonesia

    14 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 58 km NW of Port-Vila, Vanuatu

    15 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    2 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    2 months ago WARNING

  • Tsunami (Pacific Ocean) - Halmahera Indonesia - 6.7

    18 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tsunami (Hawaiian Islands) - Halmahera Indonesia - 6.7

    18 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tsunami (AK/BC/US West Coast) - in Halmahera, Indonesia - 6.7

    18 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Floods - Dokolo District, Uganda

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Barak Valley Region, India

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - US Virgin Islands

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Singapore

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Somalia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Panama

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Honduras

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Mariana Islands

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Marshall Islands

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Karymsky, Russia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Wildfire - Pinal County (Sawtooth Fire), Arizona, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.9 - 408 km SSW of ‘Ohonua, Tonga

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Southwestern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Cleveland, United States

    2 days ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Klyuchevskoy, Russia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    2 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Ebeko, Russia

    3 days ago ADVISORY

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans
February 16, 2016

Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston) remains active…located about 273 NM southwest of Pago Pago

Tropical Cyclone 13S (Uriah) remains active…located about 946 NM southeast of Diego Garcia

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston)

Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston) remains active in the southwest Pacific…to the southwest of American Samoa

Here’s a satellite image of this strengthening tropical cyclone, what the computer models are showing…and a near real time wind profile (spinning clockwise in the southern hemisphere)

This tropical cyclone is located about 273 NM southwest of Pago Pago

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows convective cloud banding wrapping into an area of increased central convection, with a weakly defined 23 NM eye feature.

TC Winston is currently positioned in a good environment for intensification with favorable sea surface temperatures, and low 10-15 knot wind shear.

A strong westerly outflow channel is also supporting the current intensification, tapping into a longwave trough of low pressure to the southeast.


A subtropical ridge of high pressure to the northwest is steering this tropical system along an eastward track.

Dynamic model guidance suggests that by 24 hours, the ridge will weaken significantly, providing a very weak steering current, with TC Winston expected to become nearly stationary, and remain in a weak steering environment through 96 hours…then shifting to a westerly track.

Environmental conditions will remain favorable which will support intensification, and Winston is expected to reach 100 knots by 48 hours

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #14 were 65 knots with gusts of 80 knots

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 13S (Uriah)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 13S (Uriah)

Tropical Cyclone 13S (Uriah) remains active in the South Indian Ocean…away from land

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical cyclone…along with what the computer models are showing…and a near real time wind profile

This tropical cyclone is located about 946 NM southeast of Diego Garcia

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery depicts an improvement in system structure, with deep convective cloud banding into a 16NM eye feature.

The current intensity has been increased to 75 knots, and reflects the increased central convection.

TC 13S is currently tracking southwestward.  Sea surface temperatures and wind shear are favorable for intensification.

TC Uriah is expected to reach a peak intensity of 95 knots by 36 hours, due to persisting favorable conditions. Uriah will turn southward at that time…and slow down through the extended forecast position.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #7 were 75 knots with gusts of 90 knots


Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston) 

JTWC textual Warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 13S (Uriah)

JTWC textual Warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area