Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

February 16, 2016
  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    58 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    1 hour ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Asosan, Japan

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - SW of Birao, Vakaga - Central African Republic

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Diapaga, Tapoa - Burkina Faso

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Malakal, Upper Nile - South Sudan

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of Grafton, New South Wales - Australia

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Katoomba, New South Wales - Australia

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Batemans Bay, New South Wales - Australia

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 63km NNE of Isangel, Vanuatu

    1 hour ago WATCH

  • Wildfire - SW of Chos Malal, Neuquén - Argentina

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tropical Cyclone - Belna

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    2 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Winter Storm - Western, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Tropical Depression - Kammuri

    4 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tropical Cyclone - Ambali

    4 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tropical Cyclone - Pawan

    4 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfires - El Quisco, Chile

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Central New Zealand

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southeastern New Zealand

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flooding - Northern Philippines

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Northern and Central South Korea

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Eastern South Korea

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Storms - Sri Lanka

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Scotland, United Kingdom

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Northeastern France

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southeastern Italy

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Northern Germany

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.3 - 6km ESE of San Clemente, Peru

    21 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Avalanche - Banff, Yoho and Kootenay National Park, Canada

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Glacier National Park, Canada

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern Alaska, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Gunnison and Aspen, Colorado, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Eastern New Mexico

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Northern South Africa

    6 hours ago WATCH

  • Floods - Western and Northern DR Congo

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Bududa, Uganda

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Esperance, Western Australia - Australia

    7 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 171km E of Kurilsk, Russia

    23 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 128km SSE of Pondaguitan, Philippines

    12 hours ago WATCH

  • Highwind - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    12 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 100km W of Kuqa, China

    22 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Nebraska City, NE Region, United States

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - St. Joseph, MO--KS Region, United States

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Richmond, MO Region, United States

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 93km ESE of Shikotan, Russia

    23 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Central City--Greenville, KY Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Charleston, MO Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Carmi, IL Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangeang Api, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Sironko, Uganda

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Cunene Province, Angola

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Northwest Territories, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Madiera, Portugal

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Western Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bolivia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Argentina

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northwestern Argentina

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Somalia and Kenya

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Djibouti City, Djibouti

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Uganda

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northwestern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - England, United Kingdom

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - South India

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Argentina

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Central Asia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Dengue Fever Outbreak - Pakistan

    2 weeks ago ADVISORY

  • Dengue Outbreak - Philippines

    3 months ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    2 days ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Etna, Italy

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Ibu, Indonesia

    2 days ago WATCH

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo/Uganda

    5 months ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Western Wyoming, United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Southeastern Idaho, United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Northern Utah, United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Dengue Fever Outbreak - Republic of the Sudan

    1 week ago ADVISORY

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans
February 16, 2016

Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston) remains active…located about 273 NM southwest of Pago Pago

Tropical Cyclone 13S (Uriah) remains active…located about 946 NM southeast of Diego Garcia

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston)

Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston) remains active in the southwest Pacific…to the southwest of American Samoa

Here’s a satellite image of this strengthening tropical cyclone, what the computer models are showing…and a near real time wind profile (spinning clockwise in the southern hemisphere)

This tropical cyclone is located about 273 NM southwest of Pago Pago

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows convective cloud banding wrapping into an area of increased central convection, with a weakly defined 23 NM eye feature.

TC Winston is currently positioned in a good environment for intensification with favorable sea surface temperatures, and low 10-15 knot wind shear.

A strong westerly outflow channel is also supporting the current intensification, tapping into a longwave trough of low pressure to the southeast.


A subtropical ridge of high pressure to the northwest is steering this tropical system along an eastward track.

Dynamic model guidance suggests that by 24 hours, the ridge will weaken significantly, providing a very weak steering current, with TC Winston expected to become nearly stationary, and remain in a weak steering environment through 96 hours…then shifting to a westerly track.

Environmental conditions will remain favorable which will support intensification, and Winston is expected to reach 100 knots by 48 hours

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #14 were 65 knots with gusts of 80 knots

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 13S (Uriah)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 13S (Uriah)

Tropical Cyclone 13S (Uriah) remains active in the South Indian Ocean…away from land

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical cyclone…along with what the computer models are showing…and a near real time wind profile

This tropical cyclone is located about 946 NM southeast of Diego Garcia

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery depicts an improvement in system structure, with deep convective cloud banding into a 16NM eye feature.

The current intensity has been increased to 75 knots, and reflects the increased central convection.

TC 13S is currently tracking southwestward.  Sea surface temperatures and wind shear are favorable for intensification.

TC Uriah is expected to reach a peak intensity of 95 knots by 36 hours, due to persisting favorable conditions. Uriah will turn southward at that time…and slow down through the extended forecast position.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #7 were 75 knots with gusts of 90 knots


Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston) 

JTWC textual Warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 13S (Uriah)

JTWC textual Warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area