Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans
February 17, 2016Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston) remains active…located about 115 NM north-northwest of Niue
Tropical Cyclone 13S (Uriah) remains active…located about 820 NM south-southeast of Diego Garcia
PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston)
Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston) remains active in the southwest Pacific…to the south of American Samoa and well east of Fiji
Here’s a recent NASA satellite image of this storm
This tropical cyclone is located about 115 NM north-northwest of Niue
According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows a broad area of central convection, with very shallow cloud banding wrapping into the circulation…which has remained mostly unchanged.
However, sea surface temperatures remain high, and favorable upper level conditions will persist throughout the forecast with low 10-15 knot wind shear and sufficient divergence aloft.
TC Winston is forecast to intensify to 115 knots over the next 2-days.
TC Winston is currently entering a weak steering environment and will remain nearly stationary for the next 24 hours, and then take on a westward track…followed by a turn towards the southeast.
Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #18 were 90 knots with gusts of 110 knots
A gale and heavy swell warning is in effect for Niue. Niue is a large upraised coral atoll island located east of Tonga. Niue is one of the smallest countries that has one of the largest raised coral atolls on Earth
In Tonga a gale warning is in effect for waters east and northeast of Vava’u. Tonga is a Polynesian kingdom that consists of 176 islands, 40 of which are inhabited. Tonga is made up of four major island groups – Tongatapu and ‘Eua in the south, Ha’apai group in the center…and Vava’u group in the north.
PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 13S (Uriah)
Tropical Cyclone 13S (Uriah) remains active in the South Indian Ocean…away from land
Here’s a youtube video of a GPM flyby of TC Uriah – along with a recent NASA satellite image of this powerful storm
This tropical cyclone is located about 820 NM south-southeast of Diego Garcia
According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery depicts a very symmetrical center, with a significant increase in deep convection surrounding a well defined 19 NM eye feature.
Animated water vapor imagery shows a very strong poleward outflow channel that has helped strengthen the system, and aided in the deep convection observed in the image.
Sea surface temperatures are amply warm and wind shear is a low 10-15 knots. These environmental factors, coupled with enhanced outflow, will support further intensification to 125 knots over the next 12 hours.
Thereafter, wind shear increases and sea surface temperatures decrease as it tracks poleward (the South Pole). This in turn is expected to weaken the system as it accelerates towards the south-southeast.
Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #9 were 115 knots with gusts of 140 knots
Eastern North Pacific
The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary
Central North Pacific
The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary
South Pacific
Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston)
JTWC textual Warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image
North Indian Ocean
There are no current tropical cyclones
South Indian Ocean
Tropical Cyclone 13S (Uriah)
JTWC textual Warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image
North Arabian Sea
There are no current tropical cyclones
