Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

February 19, 2016
  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    55 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Asosan, Japan

    13 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - SW of Birao, Vakaga - Central African Republic

    16 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Malakal, Upper Nile - South Sudan

    17 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Sangeang Api, Indonesia

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    4 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    3 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfires - Queensland, Australia

    25 minutes ago WATCH

  • Wildfire - N of Ravensthorpe, Western Australia - Australia

    25 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - N of Ravensthorpe, Western Australia - Australia

    25 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NE of Esperance, Western Australia - Australia

    26 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    3 hours ago WATCH

  • Wildfire - W of Grafton, New South Wales - Australia

    27 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Katoomba, New South Wales - Australia

    28 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Batemans Bay, New South Wales - Australia

    29 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - W of Juan Jose Castelli, Chaco - Argentina

    53 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Chos Malal, Neuquén - Argentina

    53 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Western, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Tropical Cyclone - Pawan

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Tropical Cyclone - Ambali

    3 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Flood - Nebraska City, NE Region, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SW of Diapaga, Tapoa - Burkina Faso

    3 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Flood - Carmi, IL Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Central City--Greenville, KY Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Highsurf - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    4 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Tropical Cyclone - Belna

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - New South Wales, Australia

    8 hours ago WATCH

  • Floods - Eastern Brazil

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Cibitoke Province, Burundi

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern Angola

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Eastern Wyoming, United States

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Sierra Nevada, California, United States

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Little Yoho National Park, Canada

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Southern Germany

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Southeastern Germany

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Southern Argentina

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Uganda

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Djibouti City, Djibouti

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Bududa, Uganda

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Sironko, Uganda

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Cunene Province, Angola

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 164km WNW of Hihifo, Tonga

    16 hours ago WATCH

  • Drought - Eastern South Korea

    9 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Storms - Southeastern New Zealand

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Central New Zealand

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - England, United Kingdom

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Banff, Yoho and Kootenay National Park, Canada

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Gunnison and Aspen, Colorado, United States

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Northern Utah, United States

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Western Wyoming, United States

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Southeastern Idaho, United States

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Glacier National Park, Canada

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Valparaiso Municipality, Chile

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bolivia

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Western Peru

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Flooding - Northern Philippines

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - South India

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.7 - 173km NW of Hihifo, Tonga

    14 hours ago WATCH

  • Winter Storm - Alaska, United States

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Mitchell, SD Region, United States

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 138km ENE of Bristol Island, South Sandwich Islands

    19 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Nishinoshima, Japan

    19 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 128km SSE of Pondaguitan, Philippines

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 63km NNE of Isangel, Vanuatu

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Drought - Southeastern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern Alaska, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands

    1 day ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Eastern New Mexico

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Western and Northern DR Congo

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Peru

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Somalia and Kenya

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Central Asia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Dengue Fever Outbreak - Pakistan

    2 weeks ago ADVISORY

  • Dengue Outbreak - Philippines

    3 months ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    3 days ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Etna, Italy

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo/Uganda

    5 months ago WARNING

  • Dengue Fever Outbreak - Republic of the Sudan

    1 week ago ADVISORY

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans
February 19, 2016

Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston) remains active…located about 239 NM east of Suva, Fiji

Tropical Cyclone 13S (Uriah) remains active…located about 1110 NM south-southeast of Diego Garcia

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds for Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds for Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston)

Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston) remains active in the southwest Pacific…to the southwest of American Samoa and soon to move over Fiji

Here’s a satellite image of this very strong and dangerous tropical cyclone, what the computer models are showing…and a near real time wind profile (spinning clockwise in the southern hemisphere)

This is the
looping radar image from Fiji

This tropical cyclone is located about 239 NM east of Suva, Fiji – this is a recent satellite image of the storm…with Fiji as a reference to the west

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery continue to show a symmetric eyewall surrounding a 15 NM eye feature, and the maintenance of deep convection over the past 6 hours.

Upper level analysis indicates a favorable environment with dual channel outflow and weak 5-10 knot wind shear.

TC Winston is currently tracking westward at 15 knots, after 48 hours the system will recurve sharply southward.


This very powerful will strengthen a bit more over the next 24 hours, as environmental conditions remain extremely favorable…with unusually warm sea surface temperatures of 87F….becoming even warmer to near 88 degrees as it closes in on Fiji.

TC 11P is forecast to make landfall along the east coast of Fiji within 24 hours…with an associated intensity between 125-130 knots. This will be very close to, or at what will be the equivalent of a super typhoon.

Fiji’s population, and all surrounding islands should be in the final preparations for the battering arrival of this extremely dangerous storm. Very high surf and storm will impact the area.

Storm surge from Winston is of particular concern for Fiji, where sea level rise and coastal erosion have already begun to displace people. The nation includes more than 300 islands…while many of the smaller islands are low-lying coral atolls especially vulnerable to sea level rise and to high surf events such as this.

Extremely strong winds and flooding rainfall will make conditions as dangerous as they could be!

TC Winston is forecast to begin a weakening trend after 24 hours, due to land interactions. After 72 hours, TC Winston is forecast to weaken rapidly as it tracks over colder sea surface temperatures, and encounters higher wind shear aloft.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #26 were 125 knots with gusts of 150 knots

This is the strongest tropical cyclone to ever threaten the South Pacific island of Fiji! It’s expected to make a direct hit on the Fiji Saturday. 

These are the tracks of all category 1 and great tropical cyclones to pass within 100 miles of Fiji’s main island of Viti Levu…since 1941.

This is a Special Weather Statement for Tropical Cyclone Winston – from the Fiji Meteorological Service:

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY SEVEN for Fiji ON SEVERE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 3:49am on Saturday the 20th of February 2016

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VANUABALAVU, YACATA, MAGO,
CICIA, TUVUCA, NAYAU, KORO, GAU, VANUAVATU, TAVEUNI, QAMEA, LAUCALA,
OVALAU, WAKAYA AND SOUTHERN VANUA LEVU. 

A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR LAKEBA, ONEATA, MOCE, KOMO,
NAMUKA, OGEA, MOALA, THE REST OF VANUA LEVU AND NEARBY SMALLER
ISLANDS,  VITI LEVU, YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI.
A DAMAGING HEAVY SWELL WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR LOW LYING COASTAL
AREAS OF FIJI.
A HEAVY RAIN WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR FIJI.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON CENTRE [920HPA] CATEGORY 5 WAS
LOCATED NEAR 17.2 SOUTH 178.0 WEST OR ABOUT 150KM NORTHEAST OF LAKEBA
OR ABOUT 390KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SUVA AT 3AM TODAY. THE CYCLONE IS
MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 22KM/HR.  CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE, THE CYCLONE IS
ESTIMATED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS OF 220KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO
315KM/HR. 

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 180KM
NORTHWEST OF LAKEBA OR ABOUT 200KM NORTHEAST OF SUVA AT 3PM TODAY AND
ABOUT 330KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LAKEBA OR ABOUT 90KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
SUVA AT 3AM TOMORROW.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS MAY BEGIN SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THE CYCLONE CENTRE
PASSES OVER HEAD OR NEARBY.

FOR VANUABALAVU, YACATA, MAGO, CICIA, TUVUCA, NAYAU, KORO, GAU,
VANUAVATU, TAVEUNI, QAMEA, LAUCALA, OVALAU, WAKAYA AND SOUTHERN VANUA
LEVU:
EXPECT VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEED OF 220KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUST TO 315KM/HR. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING WITH SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. FOR: LAKEBA, ONEATA, MOCE, KOMO, NAMUKA, OGEA, MOALA, REST OF VANUA LEVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS, VITI LEVU, YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP:
EXPECT DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEED OF 110KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUST TO 155KM/HR. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. FOR THE REST OF FIJI:
EXPECT DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEED OF 85KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUST TO 120KM/HR. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. The following information is provided especially for the mariners:
EXPECT WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE AND PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS AND VERY HIGH SEAS OUT TO ABOUT 60 NAUTICAL MILES FROM CENTRE.GALE FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS OUT TO ABOUT 160 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 13S (Uriah)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 13S (Uriah)

Tropical Cyclone 13S (Uriah) remains active in the South Indian Ocean…away from land

Here’s a satellite image of this gradually weakening tropical cyclone…along with what the computer models are showing…and a near real time wind profile

This tropical cyclone is located about 1110 NM south-southeast of Diego Garcia

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery depicts a well-defined, exposed low level circulation center, with limited deep convection sheared to the south.

TC 13S is expected to gradually weaken as it drifts slowly southwestward to southward over the next 2 days…due to cooler sea surface temperatures, and persistent moderate to strong wind shear.

TC Uriah is expected to maintain slow track speeds, due to the presence of a low level ridge of high pressure to the south…which is effectively blocking its southward progression.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #13 were 50 knots with gusts of 65 knots


Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston) 

JTWC textual Warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 13S (Uriah)

JTWC textual Warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area