Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

February 19, 2016
  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 10km SW of Kakching, India

    4 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    19 minutes ago WARNING

  • Tornado - Kansas City, MO WFO Region, US

    21 minutes ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    30 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    29 minutes ago WARNING

  • Flood - Miami, FL Region, United States

    41 minutes ago WARNING

  • Flood - Pecan Acres, TX Region, United States

    42 minutes ago WARNING

  • Flood - Greenville, TX Region, United States

    54 minutes ago WARNING

  • Flood - Osceola, AR Region, United States

    54 minutes ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Flood - Spencer, IA Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - Huron, SD Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - Harlan, KY Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Asosan, Japan

    2 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - NE of Pine Creek, Northern Territory - Australia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Flood - Caruthersville, MO Region, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SW of Ciudad Altamirano, Guerrero - Mexico

    3 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - SE of Champoton, Campeche - Mexico

    3 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Flood - Baton Rouge, LA Region, United States

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Mineola, TX Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - St. Louis, MO--IL Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Louisiana, MO Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Camden, AR Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Terre Haute, IN Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Round Lake Beach--McHenry--Grayslake, IL--WI Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Columbia, SC Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southeastern, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Tonganoxie, KS Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Grand Rapids, MI Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Defiance, OH Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Ligonier, IN Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - South Bend, IN--MI Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Three Rivers, MI Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Trinity, TX Region, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Victoria, TX Region, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - South Lyon--Howell, MI Region, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Karymsky, Russia

    8 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    11 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 29km WNW of Foxton, New Zealand

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Ebeko, Russia

    19 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 205km NNE of Ile Hunter, New Caledonia

    19 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 205km NW of Visokoi Island, South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands

    20 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    20 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 125km SW of Mapastepec, Mexico

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.9 - Southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - Mid-Indian Ridge

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    2 days ago ADVISORY

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Klyuchevskoy, Russia

    2 days ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Rincon de la Vieja, Costa Rica

    2 days ago WATCH

  • Storms - Thailand

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Pakistan

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - India

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Western Australia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Brazil

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Uganda

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Somalia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - DR Congo

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Guatemala

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Mexico

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Mexico

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Brazil

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Vietnam

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Peninsular Malaysia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - West Java, Indonesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Yellow Fever - Nigeria

    5 months ago ADVISORY

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo/Uganda

    11 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Etna, Italy

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Kenya

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Ethiopia

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern Africa

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern Madagascar

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Yemen

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern United States

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Marshall Islands

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Mariana Islands

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Measles Outbreak - Democratic Republic of the Congo

    4 months ago INFORMATION

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans
February 19, 2016

Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston) remains active…located about 239 NM east of Suva, Fiji

Tropical Cyclone 13S (Uriah) remains active…located about 1110 NM south-southeast of Diego Garcia

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds for Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds for Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston)

Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston) remains active in the southwest Pacific…to the southwest of American Samoa and soon to move over Fiji

Here’s a satellite image of this very strong and dangerous tropical cyclone, what the computer models are showing…and a near real time wind profile (spinning clockwise in the southern hemisphere)

This is the
looping radar image from Fiji

This tropical cyclone is located about 239 NM east of Suva, Fiji – this is a recent satellite image of the storm…with Fiji as a reference to the west

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery continue to show a symmetric eyewall surrounding a 15 NM eye feature, and the maintenance of deep convection over the past 6 hours.

Upper level analysis indicates a favorable environment with dual channel outflow and weak 5-10 knot wind shear.

TC Winston is currently tracking westward at 15 knots, after 48 hours the system will recurve sharply southward.


This very powerful will strengthen a bit more over the next 24 hours, as environmental conditions remain extremely favorable…with unusually warm sea surface temperatures of 87F….becoming even warmer to near 88 degrees as it closes in on Fiji.

TC 11P is forecast to make landfall along the east coast of Fiji within 24 hours…with an associated intensity between 125-130 knots. This will be very close to, or at what will be the equivalent of a super typhoon.

Fiji’s population, and all surrounding islands should be in the final preparations for the battering arrival of this extremely dangerous storm. Very high surf and storm will impact the area.

Storm surge from Winston is of particular concern for Fiji, where sea level rise and coastal erosion have already begun to displace people. The nation includes more than 300 islands…while many of the smaller islands are low-lying coral atolls especially vulnerable to sea level rise and to high surf events such as this.

Extremely strong winds and flooding rainfall will make conditions as dangerous as they could be!

TC Winston is forecast to begin a weakening trend after 24 hours, due to land interactions. After 72 hours, TC Winston is forecast to weaken rapidly as it tracks over colder sea surface temperatures, and encounters higher wind shear aloft.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #26 were 125 knots with gusts of 150 knots

This is the strongest tropical cyclone to ever threaten the South Pacific island of Fiji! It’s expected to make a direct hit on the Fiji Saturday. 

These are the tracks of all category 1 and great tropical cyclones to pass within 100 miles of Fiji’s main island of Viti Levu…since 1941.

This is a Special Weather Statement for Tropical Cyclone Winston – from the Fiji Meteorological Service:

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY SEVEN for Fiji ON SEVERE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 3:49am on Saturday the 20th of February 2016

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VANUABALAVU, YACATA, MAGO,
CICIA, TUVUCA, NAYAU, KORO, GAU, VANUAVATU, TAVEUNI, QAMEA, LAUCALA,
OVALAU, WAKAYA AND SOUTHERN VANUA LEVU. 

A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR LAKEBA, ONEATA, MOCE, KOMO,
NAMUKA, OGEA, MOALA, THE REST OF VANUA LEVU AND NEARBY SMALLER
ISLANDS,  VITI LEVU, YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI.
A DAMAGING HEAVY SWELL WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR LOW LYING COASTAL
AREAS OF FIJI.
A HEAVY RAIN WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR FIJI.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON CENTRE [920HPA] CATEGORY 5 WAS
LOCATED NEAR 17.2 SOUTH 178.0 WEST OR ABOUT 150KM NORTHEAST OF LAKEBA
OR ABOUT 390KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SUVA AT 3AM TODAY. THE CYCLONE IS
MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 22KM/HR.  CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE, THE CYCLONE IS
ESTIMATED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS OF 220KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO
315KM/HR. 

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 180KM
NORTHWEST OF LAKEBA OR ABOUT 200KM NORTHEAST OF SUVA AT 3PM TODAY AND
ABOUT 330KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LAKEBA OR ABOUT 90KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
SUVA AT 3AM TOMORROW.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS MAY BEGIN SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THE CYCLONE CENTRE
PASSES OVER HEAD OR NEARBY.

FOR VANUABALAVU, YACATA, MAGO, CICIA, TUVUCA, NAYAU, KORO, GAU,
VANUAVATU, TAVEUNI, QAMEA, LAUCALA, OVALAU, WAKAYA AND SOUTHERN VANUA
LEVU:
EXPECT VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEED OF 220KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUST TO 315KM/HR. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING WITH SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. FOR: LAKEBA, ONEATA, MOCE, KOMO, NAMUKA, OGEA, MOALA, REST OF VANUA LEVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS, VITI LEVU, YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP:
EXPECT DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEED OF 110KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUST TO 155KM/HR. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. FOR THE REST OF FIJI:
EXPECT DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEED OF 85KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUST TO 120KM/HR. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. The following information is provided especially for the mariners:
EXPECT WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE AND PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS AND VERY HIGH SEAS OUT TO ABOUT 60 NAUTICAL MILES FROM CENTRE.GALE FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS OUT TO ABOUT 160 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 13S (Uriah)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 13S (Uriah)

Tropical Cyclone 13S (Uriah) remains active in the South Indian Ocean…away from land

Here’s a satellite image of this gradually weakening tropical cyclone…along with what the computer models are showing…and a near real time wind profile

This tropical cyclone is located about 1110 NM south-southeast of Diego Garcia

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery depicts a well-defined, exposed low level circulation center, with limited deep convection sheared to the south.

TC 13S is expected to gradually weaken as it drifts slowly southwestward to southward over the next 2 days…due to cooler sea surface temperatures, and persistent moderate to strong wind shear.

TC Uriah is expected to maintain slow track speeds, due to the presence of a low level ridge of high pressure to the south…which is effectively blocking its southward progression.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #13 were 50 knots with gusts of 65 knots


Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston) 

JTWC textual Warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 13S (Uriah)

JTWC textual Warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area