Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

February 21, 2016
  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    8 minutes ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 34 km SSW of El Tocuyo, Venezuela

    8 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - SE of Calulo, Cuanza Sul - Angola

    29 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - E of Luena, Moxico - Angola

    29 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Nishinoshima, Japan

    38 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SE of Batagay, Chukot - Russia

    40 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - E of Sangar, Chukot - Russia

    40 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - S of Batagay, Chukot - Russia

    40 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - S of Verkhoyansk, Chukot - Russia

    40 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of Verkhoyansk, Chukot - Russia

    40 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of Tunguskhaya, Chukot - Russia

    40 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Manchester, NH Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Tucson (Bighorn Fire) , Arizona, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    3 hours ago WATCH

  • Wildfire - N of Chimoio, Manica - Mozambique

    3 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Huron, SD Region, United States

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - North Platte, NE Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - S of Batagay, Chukot - Russia

    10 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SE of Batagay, Chukot - Russia

    10 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - south of the Kermadec Islands

    10 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - 253 km N of Fais, Micronesia

    12 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Tropical Cyclone - Cristina

    16 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 117 km E of Mutsu, Japan

    16 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 6.7 - 98 km N of Batang, Indonesia

    17 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 132 km WSW of Banda Aceh, Indonesia

    16 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Carthage, MS Region, United States

    17 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.3 - 9 km E of Villa El Carmen, Nicaragua

    19 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 285 km N of Fais, Micronesia

    18 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - Izu Islands, Japan region

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 6.2 - 257 km N of Fais, Micronesia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - East Ukraine

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northern Pakistan

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - West Kalimantan, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern Japan

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Western Bulgaria

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Santa Clara County (Crews Fire), California, United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Northwestern Arizona, United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southeastern China

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - India

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - India

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southeastern Germany and Northwestern Austria

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Central Poland

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southeastern Nepal

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Central Nepal

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo

    1 week ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern Haiti

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Mexico

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Los Angeles County (Soledad Fire), California, United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Apache County (Wood Springs 2 Fire), Arizona, United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Sri Lanka

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Mongolia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Colombia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Marshall Islands

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Puerto Rico

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - US Virgin Islands

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Dominican Republic

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Southern Canada

    4 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    3 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    3 months ago WARNING

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans
February 21, 2016

Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston) remains active…located about 298 NM west of Suva, Fiji

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston)

Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston) remains active in the southwest Pacific…and is on a weakening trend over the open ocean

Here’s a satellite image of this still very strong tropical cyclone, what the computer models are showing…and a near real time wind profile (spinning clockwise in the southern hemisphere)

This
animated satellite image shows TC Winston as it moved into the Fiji area – along with a youtube video showing the damaging conditions

This tropical cyclone is located about 298 NM west of Suva, Fiji

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery depicts a convective core structure that has become further elongated as the tropical cyclone has decreased forward speed…allowing the 15-20 knot wind shear to have a greater impact.

The system has maintained a ragged 17 NM eye feature, as it tracks westward over favorably warm sea surface temperatures.

The next 12 hours will find the TC moving poleward (South Pole), weakening as the wind shear prevents the system from gaining symmetry. Beyond 24 hours, Winston will begin to intensify briefly…as sea surface temperatures warm slightly. However, as the system gains latitude, it will move over a progressively cooler sea surface, which will begin the final weakening trend shortly thereafter.

TC Winston will eventually turn westward, which will bring moderate to high levels of wind shear to bear…over the then tropical storm level system. 

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #34 were 115 knots with gusts of 140 knots

Category 5 Tropical Cyclone Winston made landfall in Fiji on Saturday, killing at least 10 people and destroying hundreds of homes. Strong winds and flooding from Winston have caused severe damage across the island nation. A month-long state of disaster has been declared in response.

The Fiji Times also reported that police teams are out and helping residents throughout the country, though widespread communications issues are interfering with police efforts to assist residents of the outer islands.

Tropical cyclone Winston hit Fiji Saturday, and moved westward overnight along the northern coast of Viti Levu. Fiji’s capital, Suva, located in the southern part of the main island, was not directly in the cyclone’s path…and avoided the worst of its destructive power.

A graphic showing where in the list of Earth’s Strongest Tropical Cyclones at Landfall…Cyclone Winston fits in.

This is a Special Weather Statement for Tropical Cyclone Winston – from the Fiji Meteorological Service:

Special Weather Bulletin Number 45 for Fiji 
ON SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 7:57pm on Sunday the 21st of February 2016 

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR VIWA ISLAND
IS NOW CANCELLED.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP, WESTERN VITI LEVU, KADAVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS AND IS NOW CANCELLED FOR THE REST OF FIJI.
A DAMAGING HEAVY SWELL WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS OF FIJI IS NOW CANCELLED.
A HEAVY RAIN WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP, VITI LEVU, KADAVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS AND IS NOW CANCELLED FOR THE REST OF FIJI. SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON CENTRE [930HPA] CATEGORY 5 WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5 SOUTH 174.0 EAST OR ABOUT 330KM WEST OF VIWA OR ABOUT 370KM WEST NADI AT 6PM TODAY. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 21KM/HR FURTHER AWAY FROM FIJI. CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE, THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS OF 205KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 285KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE GALES OVER VIWA IN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP, WESTERN VITI LEVU, KADAVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS:
STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTEAST WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEED OF 45KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUST TO 80 KM/HR. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THESE PLACES AND THE REST OF VITI LEVU. FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. FOR THE REST OF FIJI:
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY FALLS POSSIBLE. The following information is provided especially for the mariners:
NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS. THIS WILL BE THE LAST SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI ON SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON.


Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston) 

JTWC textual Warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area