Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

February 23, 2016
  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    50 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Asosan, Japan

    8 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - SW of Birao, Vakaga - Central African Republic

    11 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Malakal, Upper Nile - South Sudan

    12 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Sangeang Api, Indonesia

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    4 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    3 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfires - Queensland, Australia

    20 minutes ago WATCH

  • Wildfire - N of Ravensthorpe, Western Australia - Australia

    20 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - N of Ravensthorpe, Western Australia - Australia

    20 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NE of Esperance, Western Australia - Australia

    21 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    3 hours ago WATCH

  • Wildfire - W of Grafton, New South Wales - Australia

    22 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Katoomba, New South Wales - Australia

    23 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Batemans Bay, New South Wales - Australia

    24 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - W of Juan Jose Castelli, Chaco - Argentina

    48 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Chos Malal, Neuquén - Argentina

    48 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Western, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Tropical Cyclone - Pawan

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Tropical Cyclone - Ambali

    3 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Flood - Nebraska City, NE Region, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SW of Diapaga, Tapoa - Burkina Faso

    3 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Flood - Carmi, IL Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Central City--Greenville, KY Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Highsurf - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    4 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Tropical Cyclone - Belna

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - New South Wales, Australia

    8 hours ago WATCH

  • Floods - Eastern Brazil

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Cibitoke Province, Burundi

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern Angola

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Eastern Wyoming, United States

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Sierra Nevada, California, United States

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Little Yoho National Park, Canada

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Southern Germany

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Southeastern Germany

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Southern Argentina

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Uganda

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Djibouti City, Djibouti

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Bududa, Uganda

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Sironko, Uganda

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Cunene Province, Angola

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 164km WNW of Hihifo, Tonga

    16 hours ago WATCH

  • Drought - Eastern South Korea

    9 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Storms - Southeastern New Zealand

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Central New Zealand

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - England, United Kingdom

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Banff, Yoho and Kootenay National Park, Canada

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Gunnison and Aspen, Colorado, United States

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Northern Utah, United States

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Western Wyoming, United States

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Southeastern Idaho, United States

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Glacier National Park, Canada

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Valparaiso Municipality, Chile

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bolivia

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Western Peru

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Flooding - Northern Philippines

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - South India

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.7 - 173km NW of Hihifo, Tonga

    14 hours ago WATCH

  • Winter Storm - Alaska, United States

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Mitchell, SD Region, United States

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 138km ENE of Bristol Island, South Sandwich Islands

    19 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Nishinoshima, Japan

    19 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 128km SSE of Pondaguitan, Philippines

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 63km NNE of Isangel, Vanuatu

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Drought - Southeastern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern Alaska, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands

    1 day ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Eastern New Mexico

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Western and Northern DR Congo

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Peru

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Somalia and Kenya

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Central Asia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Dengue Fever Outbreak - Pakistan

    2 weeks ago ADVISORY

  • Dengue Outbreak - Philippines

    3 months ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    3 days ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Etna, Italy

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo/Uganda

    5 months ago WARNING

  • Dengue Fever Outbreak - Republic of the Sudan

    1 week ago ADVISORY

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans
February 23, 2016

Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston) remains active…located about 303 NM west-southwest of Suva, Fiji

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston)

Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston) remains active in the southwest Pacific…and continues on a weakening trend over the open ocean

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical cyclone, what the computer models are showing…and a near real time wind profile (spinning clockwise in the southern hemisphere)

This tropical cyclone is located about 303 NM west-southwest of Suva, Fiji

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery depicts a slowly decaying low level circulation center, with curved deep convective cloud banding. In addition, images show deep convective cloud bands wrapping into a well defined broad center.

Upper level analysis reveals a marginally favorable environment, with moderate to strong wind shear…offset by good poleward outflow.

TC Winston continues tracking southward through 24 hours, with a turn southwestward to west-southwestward thereafter.

TC 11P is expected to weaken significantly after 24 hours as it encounters stronger wind shear aloft, and cooler sea surface temperature below. By the 72 hour forecast point, this storm will transition into a subtropical low pressure system, although maintaining gale force winds.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #42 were 70 knots with gusts of 85 knots

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation…and an area of disturbed weather, along with TC Winston to the west

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulation…and an area of disturbed weather, along with TC Winston to the west

Meanwhile, there’s an area of disturbed weather in the South Pacific Ocean, being referred to as Invest 92P, circled in orange above…that has a medium chance of developing

This tropical disturbance was located about 520 NM west of Bora Bora, here’s a satellite image – and what the computer models are showing…and a near real time wind profile

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows a partially exposed low level circulation center, with formative convective cloud banding over the north and eastern quadrants. In addition, images show a broad center with fragmented banding wrapping into a defined center.

Upper air analysis shows the system in a favorable environment, with low wind shear aloft, and good poleward and equatorward outflow.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25-30 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium


Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on May 15, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston) 

JTWC textual Warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area