Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

March 15, 2016
  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    1 hour ago WATCH

  • Highwind - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    19 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Asosan, Japan

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - SW of Birao, Vakaga - Central African Republic

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Diapaga, Tapoa - Burkina Faso

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Malakal, Upper Nile - South Sudan

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of Grafton, New South Wales - Australia

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Katoomba, New South Wales - Australia

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Batemans Bay, New South Wales - Australia

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 63km NNE of Isangel, Vanuatu

    2 hours ago WATCH

  • Wildfire - SW of Chos Malal, Neuquén - Argentina

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tropical Cyclone - Belna

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    2 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Winter Storm - Western, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Tropical Depression - Kammuri

    4 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tropical Cyclone - Ambali

    4 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tropical Cyclone - Pawan

    4 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfires - El Quisco, Chile

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Central New Zealand

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southeastern New Zealand

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flooding - Northern Philippines

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Northern and Central South Korea

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Eastern South Korea

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Storms - Sri Lanka

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Scotland, United Kingdom

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Northeastern France

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southeastern Italy

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Northern Germany

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.3 - 6km ESE of San Clemente, Peru

    22 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Avalanche - Banff, Yoho and Kootenay National Park, Canada

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Glacier National Park, Canada

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern Alaska, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Gunnison and Aspen, Colorado, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Eastern New Mexico

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Northern South Africa

    7 hours ago WATCH

  • Floods - Western and Northern DR Congo

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Bududa, Uganda

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Esperance, Western Australia - Australia

    7 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 171km E of Kurilsk, Russia

    23 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 128km SSE of Pondaguitan, Philippines

    13 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 100km W of Kuqa, China

    22 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Nebraska City, NE Region, United States

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - St. Joseph, MO--KS Region, United States

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Richmond, MO Region, United States

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 93km ESE of Shikotan, Russia

    23 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Central City--Greenville, KY Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Charleston, MO Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Carmi, IL Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangeang Api, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Sironko, Uganda

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Cunene Province, Angola

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Northwest Territories, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Madiera, Portugal

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Western Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bolivia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Argentina

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northwestern Argentina

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Somalia and Kenya

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Djibouti City, Djibouti

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Uganda

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northwestern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - England, United Kingdom

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - South India

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Argentina

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Central Asia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Dengue Fever Outbreak - Pakistan

    2 weeks ago ADVISORY

  • Dengue Outbreak - Philippines

    3 months ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    2 days ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Etna, Italy

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Ibu, Indonesia

    2 days ago WATCH

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo/Uganda

    5 months ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Western Wyoming, United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Southeastern Idaho, United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Northern Utah, United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Dengue Fever Outbreak - Republic of the Sudan

    1 week ago ADVISORY

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans
March 15, 2016

There are no active tropical cyclones in the Pacific and Indian Oceans…or adjacent seas

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours

There is however an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 98P, in the southern Gulf of Carpenteria, circled in orange above…which has a medium chance of developing

This tropical disturbance was located about 30 NM west of Mornington Island, Australia, here’s a satellite image…and a near real time wind profile – and what the computer models are showing / Here’s the looping radar image from Mornington Island

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery show increasingly organized convection over a developing low level circulation center..

In addition, recent observations from Mornington Island airport, indicate winds maintaining at 15-20 knots.

Upper level analysis shows a favorable environment, with dual channel outflow, and light to moderate 10-20 knot wind shear.

Very high sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Carpenteria are conducive for further development.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20-25 knots.


The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium


The following information is from the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology (BOM):

Tropical Cyclone Forecast Track Map (Tropical Low)

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1

Issued at 1:18 am EST on Wednesday 16 March 2016

Headline:

A tropical cyclone may develop on Thursday morning in the southern Gulf of Carpentaria.

Areas Affected:

Warning Zone

None.

Watch Zone

NT/Qld Border to Cape Keerweer.

Cancelled Zone

None.

Details of Tropical Low at 10:00 pm AEST:

Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 45 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 55 kilometres of 15.6 degrees South 138.4 degrees East, estimated to be 150 kilometres northwest of Mornington Island and 355 kilometres west of Kowanyama.

Movement: east southeast at 9 kilometres per hour.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone during Thursday morning as it approaches Cape York Peninsula.

Hazards:

Gales may develop between the NT/Queensland border and Cape Keerweer.

Recommended Action:

People between the NT/Queensland border and Cape Keerweer should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours

Finally, there’s another area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 99S, in the South Indian Ocean, circled in orange above…which has a medium chance of developing

This tropical disturbance was located about 870 NM east-southeast of Diego Garcia, here’s a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery depicts a consolidating symmetric system, with flaring convection.

Microwave images show deep curved convection, which is confined to the eastern periphery, wrapping into the low level circulation center.

Upper level analysis shows a very favorable environment, with radial outflow, and low 5-10 knot wind shear.

Global models show development of this disturbance over the next 2-3 days.


Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20-25 knots.


The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium


Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the central Pacific again on May 15, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones Satellite image of this area