Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

March 17, 2016
  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    51 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Asosan, Japan

    9 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - SW of Birao, Vakaga - Central African Republic

    12 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Malakal, Upper Nile - South Sudan

    13 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Sangeang Api, Indonesia

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    4 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    3 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfires - Queensland, Australia

    21 minutes ago WATCH

  • Wildfire - N of Ravensthorpe, Western Australia - Australia

    21 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - N of Ravensthorpe, Western Australia - Australia

    21 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NE of Esperance, Western Australia - Australia

    22 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    3 hours ago WATCH

  • Wildfire - W of Grafton, New South Wales - Australia

    23 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Katoomba, New South Wales - Australia

    24 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Batemans Bay, New South Wales - Australia

    25 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - W of Juan Jose Castelli, Chaco - Argentina

    49 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Chos Malal, Neuquén - Argentina

    49 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Western, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Tropical Cyclone - Pawan

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Tropical Cyclone - Ambali

    3 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Flood - Nebraska City, NE Region, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SW of Diapaga, Tapoa - Burkina Faso

    3 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Flood - Carmi, IL Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Central City--Greenville, KY Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Highsurf - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    4 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Tropical Cyclone - Belna

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - New South Wales, Australia

    8 hours ago WATCH

  • Floods - Eastern Brazil

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Cibitoke Province, Burundi

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern Angola

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Eastern Wyoming, United States

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Sierra Nevada, California, United States

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Little Yoho National Park, Canada

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Southern Germany

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Southeastern Germany

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Southern Argentina

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Uganda

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Djibouti City, Djibouti

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Bududa, Uganda

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Sironko, Uganda

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Cunene Province, Angola

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 164km WNW of Hihifo, Tonga

    16 hours ago WATCH

  • Drought - Eastern South Korea

    9 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Storms - Southeastern New Zealand

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Central New Zealand

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - England, United Kingdom

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Banff, Yoho and Kootenay National Park, Canada

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Gunnison and Aspen, Colorado, United States

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Northern Utah, United States

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Western Wyoming, United States

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Southeastern Idaho, United States

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Glacier National Park, Canada

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Valparaiso Municipality, Chile

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bolivia

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Western Peru

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Flooding - Northern Philippines

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - South India

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.7 - 173km NW of Hihifo, Tonga

    14 hours ago WATCH

  • Winter Storm - Alaska, United States

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Mitchell, SD Region, United States

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 138km ENE of Bristol Island, South Sandwich Islands

    19 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Nishinoshima, Japan

    19 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 128km SSE of Pondaguitan, Philippines

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 63km NNE of Isangel, Vanuatu

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Drought - Southeastern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern Alaska, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands

    1 day ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Eastern New Mexico

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Western and Northern DR Congo

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Peru

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Somalia and Kenya

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Central Asia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Dengue Fever Outbreak - Pakistan

    2 weeks ago ADVISORY

  • Dengue Outbreak - Philippines

    3 months ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    3 days ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Etna, Italy

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo/Uganda

    5 months ago WARNING

  • Dengue Fever Outbreak - Republic of the Sudan

    1 week ago ADVISORY

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans
March 17, 2016

Tropical Cyclone 15S (Emeraude) remains active…located about 710 NM east-southeast of Diego Garcia  

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours...and tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 15S (Emeraude)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 15S (Emeraude)

Tropical Cyclone 15S (Emeraude) is active in the south Indian Ocean…remaining over 1,000 miles away from land – roughly south of Sri Lanka and west of Java

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical cyclone…and a near real time wind profile (spinning clockwise in the southern hemisphere)…and what the computer models are showing

Tropical cyclone 15S is located about 710 NM east-southeast of Diego Garcia / A NASA satellite image taken today

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery depicts deep symmetric core convection, and a very compact 14 NM eye feature. Over the past few hours, this system has undergone a period of very rapid intensification (RI), and as a result the forecast winds are now 125 knots.

Upper level analysis indicates TC Emeraude continues to track in a favorable environment, with low wind shear of 10-15 knots, along with a solid poleward outflow channel, and warm sea surface temperatures. This TC has become nearly stationary over the past 6-hours.

Favorable conditions are expected to continue for the next 24 hours, supporting a further slow intensification…which will have it attaining the equivalent of a Super Typhoon/Category 5 major hurricane!

After 36 hours, the system will begin a slow weakening trend, in response to a degradation of upper level conditions, and lower ocean heat content values.

Generally near stationary movement is forecast over the next 6-12 hours, as the TC begins to slowly turn to the south-southeast. The system is expected to pick up speed after 12 hours, and accelerate towards the southeast…as it further strengthens. After 72 hours, TC 15S will turn back to the west.

Weather model guidance is not in good agreement, and continues to show significant track direction and steering environment differences, especially after 48 hours. Therefore, the JTWC notes that the certainty of the time of the expected turning, noted above…remains low.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #04 were 125 knots with gusts of 150 knots / Yesterday’s forecast wind numbers at the same time: 55 knots with gusts of 70 knots – major intensification!


Eastern North Pacific

The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the central Pacific again on May 15, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 15S (Emeraude)

JTWC textual Warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area