Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

April 18, 2016
  • Winter Storm - Upper Midwestern, United States

    4 minutes ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Central, United States

    8 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    9 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    29 minutes ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Northern Rockies and Plains, United States

    55 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    1 hour ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 141km W of Abepura, Indonesia

    6 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - Warner Robins, GA Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Floods - Upper Midwestern, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Bor, Jungoli - South Sudan

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - N of Nkawkaw, Eastern - Ghana

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - S of Ndele, Bamingui-Bangoran - Central African Republic

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Shishaldin, United States

    1 hour ago WATCH

  • Tropical Cyclone - Tino

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Victoria, Australia

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Northeastern, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Niquen Commune, Chile

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - South Lyon--Howell, MI Region, United States

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Taal, Philippines

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Northwestern, United States

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Miami, OK Region, United States

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Jackson, AL Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Osceola, AR Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Kuchinoerabujima, Japan

    4 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Asosan, Japan

    4 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Jamestown, NY Region, United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Paducah, KY--IL Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.4 - 8km S of Indios, Puerto Rico

    1 week ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - E of Corumba, Mato Grosso do Sul - Brazil

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Winter Storm - Alaska, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Oconto, WI Region, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Defiance, OH Region, United States

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Blountstown, FL Region, United States

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Watertown, NY Region, United States

    13 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    15 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 100km NE of Alotau, Papua New Guinea

    17 hours ago ADVISORY

  • High Winds - British Columbia, Canada

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Manitoba, Canada

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - New Brunswick, Canada

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada

    19 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - 166km E of Raoul Island, New Zealand

    20 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Southeastern, United States

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.3 - 178km ESE of Raoul Island, New Zealand

    20 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 124km SSW of Tual, Indonesia

    21 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Minneapolis--St. Paul, MN--WI Region, United States

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Florence, SC Region, United States

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Northwest Territories, Canada

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Nova Scotia, Canada

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Nunavut, Canada

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Northern Ontario, Canada

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Prince Edward Island, Canada

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southwestern South Africa

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Muscat, Oman

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Northern Rockes and Plains, United States

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Southwestern United States

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Germany

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Germany

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Finland

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northwestern Italy

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Central Switzerland

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - New South Wales, Australia

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Angol Commune, Chile

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northeastern Peru

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Southern Argentina

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Southern Brazil

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Mozambique, Malawi, and eastern Zambia

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Central Afghanistan

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Pakistan

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Mexico

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - England, United Kingdom

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Southern Switzerland

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Wales, United Kingdom

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southwestern Iran

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Northwestern United States

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Idaho, United States

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Wyoming, United States

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Utah, United States

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Montana, United States

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - California, United States

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Western Canada

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central Peru

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Peru

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Brazil

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Samarinda City, Indonesia

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Northern India

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Waterton Lakes National Park, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Southern Quebec, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - South Australia, Australia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.9 - Ascension Island region

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo/Uganda

    7 months ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Chillán commune, Chile

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Central Chile

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storm - Northern Paraguay

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Cabo Delgado, Mozambique

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Glacier National Park, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Little Yoho National Park, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Banff, Yoho, Kootenay National Park, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Avalanches - Northern Pakistan

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - New South Wales, Australia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Northern India

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Northern India

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Zambezi Region, Nambia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northwestern Angola

    2 days ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Western Peru

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Zimbabwe and Mozambique

    2 days ago WATCH

  • Floods - Northern Madagascar

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Central Asia

    2 days ago WATCH

  • Winter Storms - Western and Southern Afghanistan

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nishinoshima, Japan

    3 days ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Krakatau, Indonesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus – China

    4 days ago INFORMATION

  • Measles Outbreak - Democratic Republic of the Congo

    1 week ago INFORMATION

  • Yellow Fever - Nigeria

    1 month ago ADVISORY

  • Dengue Outbreak - Philippines

    2 weeks ago INFORMATION

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans
April 18, 2016

Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala) is active in the South Indian Ocean…located about 783 NM northwest of Port Louis, Mauritius

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala)

Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala) remains active in the South Indian Ocean…due north of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Fantala is a major tropical cyclone in the Southern Indian Ocean…reaching the Category 5 status on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. TC Fantala is tied with TC Agnielle (1996) as the 2nd strongest southern Indian Ocean storm on record.

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical cyclone, and a near real time wind profile (spinning clockwise in the southern hemisphere)…and what the computer models are showing

Here’s a NASA satellite image of this tropical cyclone, taken today. Here’s a UW-CIMSS animated satellite image of this monster storm.

Tropical cyclone 19S is located about 783 NM west-northwest of Port Louis, Mauritius

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery depicts a distinct 16 NM eye, surrounded by an intense convective core structure.

Animated water vapor images depicts a symmetric system with radial outflow supporting the current intensity.

Currently, TC 19S is tracking slowly northwestward into a very conducive environment. This is expected to sustain the convective structure with low wind shear, and very warm sea surface temperatures.

TC Fantala is expected  to take an abrupt turn, tracking back towards the southeast through the next 72 hours.

Throughout the forecast period TC 19S is expected to slowly weaken, due to the increasing wind shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures…as it gains latitude.

In the extended period, this powerful tropical cyclone will take a turn westward…towards the northeast coast of Madagascar.

The center of Fantala’s strongest winds are expected to stay north of Madagascar, though the northern parts of the island could see bands of rain and gusty winds early this week. Additionally, high surf will be pounding the coasts of northern Madagascar, making for very dangerous conditions for mariners!

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #14 were 150 knots (175 mph) with gusts of 180 knots (200 mph)

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and a tropical disturbance with a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and a tropical disturbance with a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours

In addition, there’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 90P, circled in red above…which has a high chance of developing

This tropical disturbance was located about 375 NM west-southwest of Pago Pago, American Samoa , here’s a satellite image…and a near real time wind profile – and what the computer models are showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows a consolidating low level circulation center, with limited central convection. Microwave imagery showed a well defined center, with the associated convection sheared just southeast.


Environmental analysis indicates marginal, although improving conditions, with 15-20 knot wind shear…and strong poleward divergence.

Global models show the disturbance tracking northeastward into a low wind shear environment, with weak development. Sea surface temperatures are conducive for further development.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 27-32 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is high

Information from the NWS in American Samoa:

SHORT TERM…
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT…LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
BROAD BAND OF SHOWERY CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING
FROM THE WEST TO JUST SOUTH OF THE TERRITORY. THIS BAND MARKS AN
ACTIVE TROUGH WITH AN EMBEDDED LOW LEVEL CENTER (INVEST 90P) LOCATED
ABOUT 470 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TUTUILA. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW
THIS BAND OF CLOUDS SHIFTING SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE TERRITORY
TONIGHT…CAUSING AN UPWARD TREND IN SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM…ESPECIALLY OVER SURROUNDING
WATERS. AT THIS TIME…INVEST 90P IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH VERY LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.

LONG TERM…
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT…CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW
INVEST 90P DOMINATING WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR AMERICAN SAMOA
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER…SINCE MODEL
SKILLS ARE LOW FURTHER OUT IN TIME…WILL MAINTAIN PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND MAKE NECESSARY UPDATES AS FUTURE MODELS POPULATE.

 

Eastern North Pacific

The Eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Central North Pacific

The Central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala)

JTWC textual warning
JTWC graphical track map
JTWC satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area