Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

April 19, 2016
  • Floods - Central, United States

    7 minutes ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 403 km W of Haveluloto, Tonga

    32 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    59 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    1 hour ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Klyuchevskoy, Russia

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Asosan, Japan

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Black River Falls, WI Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Pine Creek, Northern Territory - Australia

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SE of Champoton, Campeche - Mexico

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Floods - Southeastern, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - South Boston, VA Region, United States

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Traverse City, MI Region, United States

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.1 - 79 km NW of Port-Vila, Vanuatu

    7 hours ago WATCH

  • Flood - Davenport, IA--IL Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Flood - Hutchinson, KS Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Osceola, AR Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Paris, TN Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Pocahontas, AR Region, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Roanoke Rapids, NC Region, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Miami, OK Region, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    7 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Karymsky, Russia

    7 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.4 - 89 km SSW of Merizo Village, Guam

    7 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 2 km NW of Bagulin, Philippines

    7 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.9 - 121 km SE of ‘Ohonua, Tonga

    7 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.4 - 784 km SE of Baie aux Huîtres, Mauritius

    7 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.8 - 702 km S of ‘Ohonua, Tonga

    7 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 14 km WNW of Ambunti, Papua New Guinea

    7 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 2406 km SW of Edinburgh of the Seven Seas, Saint Helena

    7 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 180 km SSW of Gizo, Solomon Islands

    7 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - 167 km ESE of San Jose Village, Northern Mariana Islands

    7 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 17 km SSE of Suklayin, Philippines

    7 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 12 km SSW of Kakching, India

    7 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 92 km NNW of Port-Vila, Vanuatu

    7 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 91 km NW of Port-Vila, Vanuatu

    7 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 96 km NW of Port-Vila, Vanuatu

    7 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - 12 km E of Hirara, Japan

    7 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 3 km NNW of Dogonbadan, Iran

    7 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.3 - 32 km ESE of Mina, Nevada

    7 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - 732 km WNW of Hanga Roa, Chile

    7 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 92 km S of Néa Anatolí, Greece

    7 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 27 km W of Foxton, New Zealand

    7 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - 459 km ENE of Kuril’sk, Russia

    7 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.9 - 1149 km S of Edinburgh of the Seven Seas, Saint Helena

    7 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 29 km WNW of Foxton, New Zealand

    7 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 167 km SE of Katsuura, Japan

    7 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 107 km SW of La Esperanza (El Zapotal), Mexico

    7 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - 379 km SSE of Shimoda, Japan

    7 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 6.1 - 171 km ESE of La Playa, Mexico

    7 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - 66 km E of Puente Alto, Chile

    7 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.3 - 81 km S of Néa Anatolí, Greece

    7 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 358 km ESE of Isangel, Vanuatu

    7 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 2395 km SW of Edinburgh of the Seven Seas, Saint Helena

    7 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 641 km NNE of Port Mathurin, Mauritius

    7 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.2 - 295 km WNW of Tofino, Canada

    7 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.3 - 279 km ENE of Lospalos, Timor Leste

    7 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 87 km NNE of Nago, Japan

    7 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 194 km SSW of Padang, Indonesia

    7 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 58 km SSE of Ierápetra, Greece

    7 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    9 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Central Honduras

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bangui, Central African Republic

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - India

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Mexico

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Mexico

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Southeastern Canada

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Quebec, Canada

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northeastern India

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Peninsular Malaysia

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - East Kalimantan, Indonesia

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    13 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    16 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Mitchell, SD Region, United States

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Flood - Nebraska City, NE Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Caruthersville, MO Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern Africa

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Uganda

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Somalia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern Madagascar

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Kenya

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Ethiopia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - DR Congo

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Guatemala

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Mariana Islands

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Marshall Islands

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northern Vietnam

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - West Sulawesi, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - South Sulawesi, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - East Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - South Kalimantan, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Ebeko, Russia

    2 days ago ADVISORY

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Storms - Guatemala

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Tornado - Sancti Spiritus, Cuba

    2 days ago INFORMATION

  • Floods - Central Region, Cuba

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - India

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Yellow Fever - Nigeria

    5 months ago ADVISORY

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo/Uganda

    11 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Measles Outbreak - Democratic Republic of the Congo

    4 months ago INFORMATION

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans
April 19, 2016

Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala) is active in the South Indian Ocean…located about 774 NM northwest of Port Louis, Mauritius

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala)

Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala) remains active in the South Indian Ocean, lingering north-northeast of Madagascar…as it now steadily weakens

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical cyclone, and a near real time wind profile (spinning clockwise in the southern hemisphere)…and what the computer models are showing

Here’s a UW-CIMSS animated satellite image of this now weakening storm.

Tropical cyclone 19S is located about 774 NM northwest of Port Louis, Mauritius

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), is expected to track poleward over the next 48 to 72 hours.

Currently, TC 19S is tracking slowly northwestward into a very conducive environment. This is expected to sustain the convective structure with low wind shear, and very warm sea surface temperatures.

TC Fantala is expected to slowly weaken as the tropical cyclone passes over cooler water, close to its previous track, during the next 36 hours…and as wind shear increases slightly thereafter.

Meanwhile, a deep layer ridge of high pressure is expected to form over Madagascar, and shift the track westward.

Weather models are in good agreement regarding the overall forecast scenario of a poleward followed by a westward track. However, there’s a significant spread in the location of the westward turn, and orientation of the subsequent track.

The center of Fantala’s strongest winds are expected to stay north of Madagascar, though the northern parts of the island could see bands of rain and gusty winds. Additionally, high surf will be pounding the coasts of northern Madagascar locally, making for very dangerous conditions for mariners!

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #16 were 105 knots with gusts of 130 knots

Last October (2015), Patricia came ashore in Mexico with the strongest hurricane winds ever recorded on Earth, at over 200 miles per hour. Then, in February (2016), Winston broke the wind speed record for the southwest Pacific Ocean basin, when it devastated one of Fiji’s main islands with winds topping 180 miles per hour. On Monday, it was TC Fantala’s turn to break that record for the Indian Ocean basin, as it ominously churned just off Madagascar’s northern coast, peaking at 175 miles per hour. [Credit: Washington Post]

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and a tropical disturbance with a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and a tropical disturbance with a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours

In addition, there’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 90P, circled in red above…which has a high chance of developing

This tropical disturbance was located about 305 NM west of Pago Pago, American Samoa, here’s a satellite image…and a near real time wind profile – and what the computer models are showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows a consolidating low level circulation center, with limited central convection. Microwave imagery showed a well defined center, with the associated limited convection wrapping along the southern and western peripheries.


Environmental analysis indicates marginal, although improving conditions, with 10-15 knot wind shear…and an eastward outflow channel on the poleward side.

Global models show the disturbance tracking northwestward into a marginally better wind shear environment…and with a corresponding slow consolidation. Sea surface temperatures are conducive for further development.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25-30 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high

Information from the NWS in American Samoa:

.SHORT TERM…

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT…THERE IS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
17F SOUTHWEST OF TUTUILA. TD17F IS NOT A THREAT TO THE
TERRITORY FOR THE SHORT TERM, AS IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE IT TURNS AND MOVES EAST…BECOMING
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM. FOR
NOW…THE ACTIVE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE SAMOAN ISLANDS THAT IS
CURRENTLY MAINTAINING WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERRITORY DURING
THIS FLAG DAY CELEBRATION, IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW SOME PERIODS
OF FAIR WEATHER FOR TIMES WHERE THE BULK OF MOISTURE MOVES OVER
SURROUNDING WATERS. HOWEVER…THOSE FAIR PERIODS ARE VERY BRIEF AS
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS FOR AMERICAN SAMOA.

.LONG TERM…

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY…AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED…TD17F IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE SAMOAN ISLANDS BY MIDWEEK. CURRENT
MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW TD17F INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
SAMOAN ISLANDS LATER IN THE WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE BOTH IN
AGREEMENT WITH TD17F MOVING OVER THE SAMOAN ISLANDS. HOWEVER…THEY
DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN THE TIME OF ARRIVAL…WHERE GFS SHOWS TD17F
REACHING THE ISLANDS BY FRIDAY…WHEREAS ECMWF SHOWS IT ARRIVING BY
SATURDAY. CURRENTLY…MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW TD17F REACHING STORM
FORCED WINDS WHEN IT REACHES THE SAMOAN ISLANDS. HENCE…WILL ADJUST
FORECASTS TO REFLECT CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE LONG TERM.

 

Eastern North Pacific

The Eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Central North Pacific

The Central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala)

JTWC textual warning
JTWC graphical track map
JTWC satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area