Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

April 19, 2016
  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangeang Api, Indonesia

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    3 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    3 hours ago WATCH

  • Wildfires - Queensland, Australia

    1 hour ago WATCH

  • Wildfire - N of Ravensthorpe, Western Australia - Australia

    36 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - N of Ravensthorpe, Western Australia - Australia

    36 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NE of Esperance, Western Australia - Australia

    36 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of Grafton, New South Wales - Australia

    36 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Katoomba, New South Wales - Australia

    36 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Batemans Bay, New South Wales - Australia

    37 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Asosan, Japan

    48 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - SW of Birao, Vakaga - Central African Republic

    51 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Malakal, Upper Nile - South Sudan

    52 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of Juan Jose Castelli, Chaco - Argentina

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Chos Malal, Neuquén - Argentina

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Western, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Tropical Cyclone - Pawan

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Tropical Cyclone - Ambali

    4 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Flood - Nebraska City, NE Region, United States

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SW of Diapaga, Tapoa - Burkina Faso

    4 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Flood - Carmi, IL Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Central City--Greenville, KY Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Highsurf - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Tropical Cyclone - Belna

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - New South Wales, Australia

    9 hours ago WATCH

  • Floods - Eastern Brazil

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Cibitoke Province, Burundi

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern Angola

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Eastern Wyoming, United States

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Sierra Nevada, California, United States

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Little Yoho National Park, Canada

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Southern Germany

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Southeastern Germany

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Southern Argentina

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Uganda

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Djibouti City, Djibouti

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Bududa, Uganda

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Sironko, Uganda

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Cunene Province, Angola

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 164km WNW of Hihifo, Tonga

    17 hours ago WATCH

  • Drought - Eastern South Korea

    9 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Storms - Southeastern New Zealand

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Central New Zealand

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - England, United Kingdom

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Banff, Yoho and Kootenay National Park, Canada

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Gunnison and Aspen, Colorado, United States

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Northern Utah, United States

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Western Wyoming, United States

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Southeastern Idaho, United States

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Glacier National Park, Canada

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfires - Valparaiso Municipality, Chile

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bolivia

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Western Peru

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Flooding - Northern Philippines

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - South India

    10 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.7 - 173km NW of Hihifo, Tonga

    14 hours ago WATCH

  • Winter Storm - Alaska, United States

    12 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Mitchell, SD Region, United States

    14 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 138km ENE of Bristol Island, South Sandwich Islands

    20 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Nishinoshima, Japan

    20 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 128km SSE of Pondaguitan, Philippines

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 63km NNE of Isangel, Vanuatu

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Drought - Southeastern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern Alaska, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands

    1 day ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Eastern New Mexico

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Western and Northern DR Congo

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Peru

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Somalia and Kenya

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Central Asia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Dengue Fever Outbreak - Pakistan

    2 weeks ago ADVISORY

  • Dengue Outbreak - Philippines

    3 months ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    3 days ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Etna, Italy

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo/Uganda

    5 months ago WARNING

  • Dengue Fever Outbreak - Republic of the Sudan

    1 week ago ADVISORY

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans
April 19, 2016

Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala) is active in the South Indian Ocean…located about 774 NM northwest of Port Louis, Mauritius

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala)

Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala) remains active in the South Indian Ocean, lingering north-northeast of Madagascar…as it now steadily weakens

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical cyclone, and a near real time wind profile (spinning clockwise in the southern hemisphere)…and what the computer models are showing

Here’s a UW-CIMSS animated satellite image of this now weakening storm.

Tropical cyclone 19S is located about 774 NM northwest of Port Louis, Mauritius

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), is expected to track poleward over the next 48 to 72 hours.

Currently, TC 19S is tracking slowly northwestward into a very conducive environment. This is expected to sustain the convective structure with low wind shear, and very warm sea surface temperatures.

TC Fantala is expected to slowly weaken as the tropical cyclone passes over cooler water, close to its previous track, during the next 36 hours…and as wind shear increases slightly thereafter.

Meanwhile, a deep layer ridge of high pressure is expected to form over Madagascar, and shift the track westward.

Weather models are in good agreement regarding the overall forecast scenario of a poleward followed by a westward track. However, there’s a significant spread in the location of the westward turn, and orientation of the subsequent track.

The center of Fantala’s strongest winds are expected to stay north of Madagascar, though the northern parts of the island could see bands of rain and gusty winds. Additionally, high surf will be pounding the coasts of northern Madagascar locally, making for very dangerous conditions for mariners!

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #16 were 105 knots with gusts of 130 knots

Last October (2015), Patricia came ashore in Mexico with the strongest hurricane winds ever recorded on Earth, at over 200 miles per hour. Then, in February (2016), Winston broke the wind speed record for the southwest Pacific Ocean basin, when it devastated one of Fiji’s main islands with winds topping 180 miles per hour. On Monday, it was TC Fantala’s turn to break that record for the Indian Ocean basin, as it ominously churned just off Madagascar’s northern coast, peaking at 175 miles per hour. [Credit: Washington Post]

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and a tropical disturbance with a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and a tropical disturbance with a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours

In addition, there’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 90P, circled in red above…which has a high chance of developing

This tropical disturbance was located about 305 NM west of Pago Pago, American Samoa, here’s a satellite image…and a near real time wind profile – and what the computer models are showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery shows a consolidating low level circulation center, with limited central convection. Microwave imagery showed a well defined center, with the associated limited convection wrapping along the southern and western peripheries.


Environmental analysis indicates marginal, although improving conditions, with 10-15 knot wind shear…and an eastward outflow channel on the poleward side.

Global models show the disturbance tracking northwestward into a marginally better wind shear environment…and with a corresponding slow consolidation. Sea surface temperatures are conducive for further development.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25-30 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high

Information from the NWS in American Samoa:

.SHORT TERM…

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT…THERE IS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
17F SOUTHWEST OF TUTUILA. TD17F IS NOT A THREAT TO THE
TERRITORY FOR THE SHORT TERM, AS IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE IT TURNS AND MOVES EAST…BECOMING
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM. FOR
NOW…THE ACTIVE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE SAMOAN ISLANDS THAT IS
CURRENTLY MAINTAINING WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERRITORY DURING
THIS FLAG DAY CELEBRATION, IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW SOME PERIODS
OF FAIR WEATHER FOR TIMES WHERE THE BULK OF MOISTURE MOVES OVER
SURROUNDING WATERS. HOWEVER…THOSE FAIR PERIODS ARE VERY BRIEF AS
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS FOR AMERICAN SAMOA.

.LONG TERM…

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY…AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED…TD17F IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE SAMOAN ISLANDS BY MIDWEEK. CURRENT
MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW TD17F INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
SAMOAN ISLANDS LATER IN THE WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE BOTH IN
AGREEMENT WITH TD17F MOVING OVER THE SAMOAN ISLANDS. HOWEVER…THEY
DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN THE TIME OF ARRIVAL…WHERE GFS SHOWS TD17F
REACHING THE ISLANDS BY FRIDAY…WHEREAS ECMWF SHOWS IT ARRIVING BY
SATURDAY. CURRENTLY…MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW TD17F REACHING STORM
FORCED WINDS WHEN IT REACHES THE SAMOAN ISLANDS. HENCE…WILL ADJUST
FORECASTS TO REFLECT CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE LONG TERM.

 

Eastern North Pacific

The Eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Central North Pacific

The Central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala)

JTWC textual warning
JTWC graphical track map
JTWC satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area