Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

April 20, 2016
  • Flood - Miami, FL Region, United States

    5 minutes ago WARNING

  • Flood - Harlan, KY Region, United States

    11 minutes ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central, United States

    21 minutes ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Pine Creek, Northern Territory - Australia

    25 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    1 hour ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Klyuchevskoy, Russia

    56 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Victoria, TX Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 10km SW of Kakching, India

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - SE of Champoton, Campeche - Mexico

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Ciudad Altamirano, Guerrero - Mexico

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - Pecan Acres, TX Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - Greenville, TX Region, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Osceola, AR Region, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Flood - Spencer, IA Region, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Huron, SD Region, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Asosan, Japan

    3 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Caruthersville, MO Region, United States

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Baton Rouge, LA Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Mineola, TX Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - St. Louis, MO--IL Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Louisiana, MO Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Camden, AR Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Terre Haute, IN Region, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Columbia, SC Region, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southeastern, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Tonganoxie, KS Region, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Grand Rapids, MI Region, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Defiance, OH Region, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Ligonier, IN Region, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - South Bend, IN--MI Region, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Three Rivers, MI Region, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Trinity, TX Region, United States

    7 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - South Lyon--Howell, MI Region, United States

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Karymsky, Russia

    9 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 29km WNW of Foxton, New Zealand

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Ebeko, Russia

    20 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 205km NNE of Ile Hunter, New Caledonia

    20 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 205km NW of Visokoi Island, South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands

    21 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    22 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 125km SW of Mapastepec, Mexico

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    1 day ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.9 - Southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - Mid-Indian Ridge

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    2 days ago ADVISORY

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Rincon de la Vieja, Costa Rica

    2 days ago WATCH

  • Storms - Thailand

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Pakistan

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - India

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Western Australia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Brazil

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Uganda

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Somalia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - DR Congo

    5 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Guatemala

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Mexico

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Mexico

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Brazil

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Vietnam

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Storms - Peninsular Malaysia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - West Java, Indonesia

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Yellow Fever - Nigeria

    5 months ago ADVISORY

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo/Uganda

    11 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Etna, Italy

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Kenya

    5 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Ethiopia

    5 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    1 month ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern Africa

    5 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern Madagascar

    5 days ago WARNING

  • Floods - Yemen

    5 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern United States

    5 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    5 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    5 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    5 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    5 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Marshall Islands

    5 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Mariana Islands

    5 days ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    5 days ago WARNING

  • Measles Outbreak - Democratic Republic of the Congo

    4 months ago INFORMATION

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans
April 20, 2016

Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala) remains active in the South Indian Ocean…located about 634 NM north-northwest of Port Louis, Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone 20P (Amos) is now active in the South Pacific Ocean…located about 353 NM west of Avata Samoa

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala)

Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala) remains active in the South Indian Ocean, lingering northeast of Madagascar…as it continues to slowly weaken

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical cyclone, and a near real time wind profile (spinning clockwise in the southern hemisphere)…and what the computer models are showing

Here’s a UW-CIMSS animated satellite image of this storm – along with a NASA satellite image taken today

TC 19S is currently the equivalent of a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale…and has decreased from its category 5 status on April 18th.

Tropical cyclone 19S is located about 634 NM north-northwest of Port Louis, Mauritius…moving towards the east-southeast at 9 knots.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), has re-intensified and developed a clear eye feature over the past 12 hours. Animated water vapor imagery and satellite derived upper level wind data indicate a strong poleward outflow channel…which is likely the primary driver of the recent strengthening.

TC Fantala is expected to continue tracking poleward over the next 36 hours…before entering a competing steering environment. Thereafter, the system will veer west to northwestward after 48 hours.

Additional intensification is possible in the near term, although gradual weakening should occur in the medium to extended range…as outflow becomes restricted.

Weather models are in good general agreement regarding the overall forecast track. However there is some uncertainty in the timing and direction of the steering. Thus, the current forecast provided by the JTWC has a low confidence…given this uncertainty.

The center of Fantala’s strongest winds are expected to stay north of Madagascar, though the northern parts of the island may eventually see bands of rain and gusty winds. Additionally, high surf will be pounding the coasts of northern Madagascar locally, making for very dangerous conditions for mariners!

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #18 were 105 knots with gusts of 130 knots

 
PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 20P (Amos)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 20P (Amos)

Tropical Cyclone 20P (Amos) has spun up in the South Pacific Ocean…heading generally towards American Samoa

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical cyclone, and a near real time wind profile (spinning clockwise in the southern hemisphere)…and what the computer models are showing

Tropical cyclone 20P (Amos) is located about 353 NM west of Avata Samoa

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), TC 20P is expected to remain in a weak steering environment over the next 24 hours…before the system moves east and then southeastward through the extended forecast period.

Slow intensification should occur through 72 hours, as the low level circulation continues to consolidate and poleward outflow improves.

TC Amos should weaken after 72 hours, as wind shear increases

Weather models are in good agreement regarding the general track scenario, although there is some uncertainty in the track direction over the next several days. Given this uncertainty, the JTWC notes that there is low confidence in the track forecast.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #3 were 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots

Here’s information provided by the NWS office in American Samoa:

SHORT TERM…

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT…THE LATEST 20/00Z SOUNDING CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY WET ATMOSPHERE OVER THE TERRITORY WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CONTINUOUS SHOWERS WE HAVE BEEN RECEIVING THE LAST FEW DAYS DUE TO AN ACTIVE TROUGH. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGH…LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES WEST OF TUTUILA…IS TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17F (TD17F). LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW TD17F MOVING NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THEN TURNING TOWARDS THE SAMOAN ISLANDS THEREAFTER. MEANWHILE…THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER NEAR THE TERRITORY…CONTINUING TO PROVIDE SHOWERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SINCE THE GROUNDS HAVE BEEN SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINFALL…THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE HIGH FOR AMERICAN SAMOA.

LONG TERM…

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY…THE PRIMARY FEATURE FOR AMERICAN SAMOA DURING THE LONG TERM IS THE POSSIBLE IMPACT FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17F. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SAME TRACK…WHICH BRINGS THIS SYSTEM OVER OR NEAR THE SAMOAN ISLANDS. HOWEVER…ECMWF AND GFS MODELS DIFFER GREATLY ON THE TIME OF ARRIVAL. GFS CURRENTLY SHOWS TD17F MOVING FASTER…REACHING THE ISLANDS BY SATURDAY. WHEREAS ECMWF SHOWS TD17F MOVING SLOWER…REACHING THE ISLANDS A LITTLE LATER…POSSIBLY BY THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WEEK. ADDITIONALLY…BOTH MODELS VARY ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM WHEN IT IS CLOSEST TO THE ISLANDS. HENCE…WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST WHICH REFLECTS A TREND OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE ISLANDS IN THE LONG TERM…AND MAKE NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS AS WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF TD17F.

 

Eastern North Pacific

The Eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Central North Pacific

The Central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 20P (Amos)

JTWC textual warning
JTWC graphical track map
JTWC satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala)

JTWC textual warning
JTWC graphical track map
JTWC satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area