Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

April 20, 2016
  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    59 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    1 hour ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    16 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Asosan, Japan

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - SW of Birao, Vakaga - Central African Republic

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Diapaga, Tapoa - Burkina Faso

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Malakal, Upper Nile - South Sudan

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of Grafton, New South Wales - Australia

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Katoomba, New South Wales - Australia

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Batemans Bay, New South Wales - Australia

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 63km NNE of Isangel, Vanuatu

    1 hour ago WATCH

  • Wildfire - SW of Chos Malal, Neuquén - Argentina

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tropical Cyclone - Belna

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    2 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Winter Storm - Western, United States

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Tropical Depression - Kammuri

    4 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tropical Cyclone - Ambali

    4 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tropical Cyclone - Pawan

    4 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfires - El Quisco, Chile

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Central New Zealand

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southeastern New Zealand

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Flooding - Northern Philippines

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Northern and Central South Korea

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Eastern South Korea

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Storms - Sri Lanka

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Scotland, United Kingdom

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Northeastern France

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southeastern Italy

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Northern Germany

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.3 - 6km ESE of San Clemente, Peru

    21 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Avalanche - Banff, Yoho and Kootenay National Park, Canada

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Glacier National Park, Canada

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern Alaska, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Gunnison and Aspen, Colorado, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Eastern New Mexico

    6 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Northern South Africa

    6 hours ago WATCH

  • Floods - Western and Northern DR Congo

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Bududa, Uganda

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Esperance, Western Australia - Australia

    7 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 171km E of Kurilsk, Russia

    23 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 128km SSE of Pondaguitan, Philippines

    12 hours ago WATCH

  • Highwind - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    12 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 100km W of Kuqa, China

    22 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Nebraska City, NE Region, United States

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - St. Joseph, MO--KS Region, United States

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Richmond, MO Region, United States

    22 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 93km ESE of Shikotan, Russia

    23 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Central City--Greenville, KY Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Charleston, MO Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Flood - Carmi, IL Region, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangeang Api, Indonesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Sironko, Uganda

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Cunene Province, Angola

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Northwest Territories, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Madiera, Portugal

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Western Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bolivia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Argentina

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northwestern Argentina

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Somalia and Kenya

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Djibouti City, Djibouti

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Uganda

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northwestern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - England, United Kingdom

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - South India

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Argentina

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Central Asia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Dengue Fever Outbreak - Pakistan

    2 weeks ago ADVISORY

  • Dengue Outbreak - Philippines

    3 months ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    2 days ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Etna, Italy

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Ibu, Indonesia

    2 days ago WATCH

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo/Uganda

    5 months ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Western Wyoming, United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Southeastern Idaho, United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Northern Utah, United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Dengue Fever Outbreak - Republic of the Sudan

    1 week ago ADVISORY

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans
April 20, 2016

Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala) remains active in the South Indian Ocean…located about 634 NM north-northwest of Port Louis, Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone 20P (Amos) is now active in the South Pacific Ocean…located about 353 NM west of Avata Samoa

 

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala)

Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala) remains active in the South Indian Ocean, lingering northeast of Madagascar…as it continues to slowly weaken

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical cyclone, and a near real time wind profile (spinning clockwise in the southern hemisphere)…and what the computer models are showing

Here’s a UW-CIMSS animated satellite image of this storm – along with a NASA satellite image taken today

TC 19S is currently the equivalent of a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale…and has decreased from its category 5 status on April 18th.

Tropical cyclone 19S is located about 634 NM north-northwest of Port Louis, Mauritius…moving towards the east-southeast at 9 knots.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), has re-intensified and developed a clear eye feature over the past 12 hours. Animated water vapor imagery and satellite derived upper level wind data indicate a strong poleward outflow channel…which is likely the primary driver of the recent strengthening.

TC Fantala is expected to continue tracking poleward over the next 36 hours…before entering a competing steering environment. Thereafter, the system will veer west to northwestward after 48 hours.

Additional intensification is possible in the near term, although gradual weakening should occur in the medium to extended range…as outflow becomes restricted.

Weather models are in good general agreement regarding the overall forecast track. However there is some uncertainty in the timing and direction of the steering. Thus, the current forecast provided by the JTWC has a low confidence…given this uncertainty.

The center of Fantala’s strongest winds are expected to stay north of Madagascar, though the northern parts of the island may eventually see bands of rain and gusty winds. Additionally, high surf will be pounding the coasts of northern Madagascar locally, making for very dangerous conditions for mariners!

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #18 were 105 knots with gusts of 130 knots

 
PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 20P (Amos)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 20P (Amos)

Tropical Cyclone 20P (Amos) has spun up in the South Pacific Ocean…heading generally towards American Samoa

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical cyclone, and a near real time wind profile (spinning clockwise in the southern hemisphere)…and what the computer models are showing

Tropical cyclone 20P (Amos) is located about 353 NM west of Avata Samoa

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), TC 20P is expected to remain in a weak steering environment over the next 24 hours…before the system moves east and then southeastward through the extended forecast period.

Slow intensification should occur through 72 hours, as the low level circulation continues to consolidate and poleward outflow improves.

TC Amos should weaken after 72 hours, as wind shear increases

Weather models are in good agreement regarding the general track scenario, although there is some uncertainty in the track direction over the next several days. Given this uncertainty, the JTWC notes that there is low confidence in the track forecast.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #3 were 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots

Here’s information provided by the NWS office in American Samoa:

SHORT TERM…

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT…THE LATEST 20/00Z SOUNDING CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY WET ATMOSPHERE OVER THE TERRITORY WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CONTINUOUS SHOWERS WE HAVE BEEN RECEIVING THE LAST FEW DAYS DUE TO AN ACTIVE TROUGH. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGH…LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES WEST OF TUTUILA…IS TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17F (TD17F). LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW TD17F MOVING NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THEN TURNING TOWARDS THE SAMOAN ISLANDS THEREAFTER. MEANWHILE…THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER NEAR THE TERRITORY…CONTINUING TO PROVIDE SHOWERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SINCE THE GROUNDS HAVE BEEN SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINFALL…THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE HIGH FOR AMERICAN SAMOA.

LONG TERM…

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY…THE PRIMARY FEATURE FOR AMERICAN SAMOA DURING THE LONG TERM IS THE POSSIBLE IMPACT FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17F. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SAME TRACK…WHICH BRINGS THIS SYSTEM OVER OR NEAR THE SAMOAN ISLANDS. HOWEVER…ECMWF AND GFS MODELS DIFFER GREATLY ON THE TIME OF ARRIVAL. GFS CURRENTLY SHOWS TD17F MOVING FASTER…REACHING THE ISLANDS BY SATURDAY. WHEREAS ECMWF SHOWS TD17F MOVING SLOWER…REACHING THE ISLANDS A LITTLE LATER…POSSIBLY BY THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WEEK. ADDITIONALLY…BOTH MODELS VARY ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM WHEN IT IS CLOSEST TO THE ISLANDS. HENCE…WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST WHICH REFLECTS A TREND OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE ISLANDS IN THE LONG TERM…AND MAKE NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS AS WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF TD17F.

 

Eastern North Pacific

The Eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Central North Pacific

The Central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 20P (Amos)

JTWC textual warning
JTWC graphical track map
JTWC satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala)

JTWC textual warning
JTWC graphical track map
JTWC satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area