Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

April 21, 2016
  • Flood - West Liberty, IA Region, United States

    14 minutes ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central, United States

    17 minutes ago WARNING

  • Tornado - Nashville, TN WFO Region, US

    11 minutes ago WARNING

  • Flood - Kinston, NC Region, United States

    12 minutes ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.4 - 134 km NNE of Tobelo, Indonesia

    16 hours ago WATCH

  • Flood - Caruthersville, MO Region, United States

    34 minutes ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 17km S of Searles Valley, CA

    21 hours ago WATCH

  • Flood - Lebanon, PA Region, United States

    35 minutes ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southern, United States

    29 minutes ago WARNING

  • Flood - Osceola, AR Region, United States

    35 minutes ago WARNING

  • Highsurf - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    39 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Southeastern, United States

    48 minutes ago WARNING

  • Flood - Roanoke Rapids, NC Region, United States

    49 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    51 minutes ago WARNING

  • Tornado - Memphis, TN WFO Region, US

    57 minutes ago WARNING

  • Flood - Owensboro, KY Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    1 hour ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Asosan, Japan

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - E of Malanje - Angola

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - E of Pine Creek, Northern Territory - Australia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    2 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    2 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Tropical Depression - Cristobal

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Pune District, India

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southeastern Mexico

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Yemen

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Solano County (Wildlife Fire), California, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Germany

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Italy

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Italy

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northern Sweden

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Vietnam

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Brunei

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northeastern Argentina

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    2 months ago WARNING

  • Storms - Pakistan

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - India

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Guatemala

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - El Salvador

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - El Salvador

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central Norway

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Mexico

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Mexico

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Vietnam

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Peninsular Malaysia

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    2 months ago WARNING

  • Measles Outbreak - Democratic Republic of the Congo

    4 months ago INFORMATION

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • Yellow Fever - Nigeria

    5 months ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 6.8 - 48 km SSW of San Pedro de Atacama, Chile

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 363 km NNE of Saipan, Northern Mariana Islands

    8 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.7 - 167 km N of Labuan Lombok, Indonesia

    8 hours ago WATCH

  • Flood - Williston, ND Region, United States

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    9 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Huron, SD Region, United States

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 122 km WNW of Ternate, Indonesia

    12 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 58 km NW of Port-Vila, Vanuatu

    14 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    2 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    2 months ago WARNING

  • Tsunami (Pacific Ocean) - Halmahera Indonesia - 6.7

    16 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tsunami (Hawaiian Islands) - Halmahera Indonesia - 6.7

    16 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tsunami (AK/BC/US West Coast) - in Halmahera, Indonesia - 6.7

    16 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Floods - Dokolo District, Uganda

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Barak Valley Region, India

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - US Virgin Islands

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Singapore

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Somalia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Panama

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Honduras

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Mariana Islands

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Marshall Islands

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Karymsky, Russia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Wildfire - Pinal County (Sawtooth Fire), Arizona, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.9 - 408 km SSW of ‘Ohonua, Tonga

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Southwestern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Cleveland, United States

    2 days ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Klyuchevskoy, Russia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    2 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Ebeko, Russia

    3 days ago ADVISORY

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans
April 21, 2016

Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala) remains active in the South Indian Ocean…located about 478 NM north-northwest of Port Louis, Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone 20P (Amos) remains active in the South Pacific Ocean…located about 488 NM west of Pago Pago, American Samoa

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala)

TC Fantala track moving offshore just north of Madagascar

TC Fantala track moving offshore just north of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala) remains active in the South Indian Ocean, northeast of Madagascar…as it continues to very slowly weaken

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical cyclone, and a near real time wind profile (spinning clockwise in the southern hemisphere)…and what the computer models are showing

Here’s a UW-CIMSS animated satellite image of this storm – along with a NASA satellite image taken today

TC 19S is still the equivalent of a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale…decreased from its category 5 status on April 18th.

Tropical cyclone 19S is located about 478 NM north-northwest of Port Louis, Mauritius…moving towards the east-southeast at 7 knots.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery depicts deep convective cloud banding, wrapping into a defined center. Imagery also reveals significant weakening of the core convection, with deep convective banding confined to the northwest quadrant.

Upper level analysis and animated water vapor imagery indicate increased northeasterly wind shear of 15-20 knots, offset by enhanced poleward outflow.

TC 19S is forecast to turn west-northwest after 36 hours.  Available weather guidance is in good agreement, and supports the west-northwestward track through 120 hours.

TC Fantala is forecast to weaken gradually through the period, under generally marginal conditions. Although, sea surface temperatures remain favorable after 72 hours, upper level westerlies are forecast to increase north of Madagascar…which should further weaken the system.

The center of Fantala’s strongest winds are expected to stay north of Madagascar, though the northern parts of the island may eventually see bands of rain and gusty winds. Additionally, high surf will be pounding the coasts of northern Madagascar locally, making for very dangerous conditions for mariners. The storm is expected to continue weakening as it moves towards Tanzania and northern Mozambique.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #20 were 90 knots with gusts of 110 knots


PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 20P (Amos)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 20P (Amos)

TC Amos track as it moves by close to the south of American Samoa

TC Amos track as it moves by close to the south of American Samoa

Tropical Cyclone 20P (Amos) continues to churn the waters of the South Pacific Ocean…heading generally into the area not far south of American Samoa

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical cyclone, and a near real time wind profile (spinning clockwise in the southern hemisphere)…and what the computer models are showing / This is a NASA satellite image taken today.

Tropical cyclone 20P (Amos) is located about 488 NM west of Pago Pago, American Samoa, tracking eastward at a slow paced 3 knots.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery depicts a compact, consolidating low level circulation center, with improved convective structure. In addition, there’s a well-defined microwave eye feature surrounded by multiple convective cloud bands, wrapping into the center.

This excellent low level structure, in combination with the radial outflow, suggests an imminent rapid intensification (RI) phase.

TC 20P has tracked slowly eastward and is forecast to accelerate eastward to southeastward.

Weather models are in tight agreement in supporting the JTWC forecast track…with high confidence.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #7 were 55 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The upcoming RI is expected to bring this storm to a peak intensity of 95 knots within 48 hours. Thereafter, it should weaken as it begins to encounter increasingly strong westerly winds aloft.

Here’s information provided by the NWS office in American Samoa:

The National Weather Service in Pago Pago has issued a Flash Flood Watch for all islands of American Samoa through Saturday, April 23. The NWS noted “increasing rainfall activities and thunderstorms are expected through the weekend. An active surface trough will linger over the Samoan Islands…and this trough will trigger numerous showers through Friday morning (Apr. 22) before the arrival of another series of rainfall activities associated with tropical cyclone Amos Friday afternoon into Saturday night. The potential threat for flash flooding is possible.”

SHORT TERM…

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT…TROPICAL CYCLONE AMOS (17F/20P) WAS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 SOUTH LONGITUDE 179.5 WEST OR ABOUT 600 MILES NORTHWEST OF TUTUILA…MOVING NEARLY STATIONARY. THE GFS MODEL RESOLUTION TRACKS TC AMOS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SAMOAN ISLANDS STARTING THURSDAY. TC AMOS WILL MOVE CLOSEST TO THE SOUTH OF SAVAII DURING FRIDAY NIGHT…HENCE INCREASING RAINFALL AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS THROUGH UPOLU EASTWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. IF MODELS ARE CORRECT…LOCAL WINDS AND RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. FOR AMERICAN SAMOA…ANTICIPATE TRADE-WIND CONDITIONS TO CHANGE DIRECTION TO NORTHEAST AT 25 KT FRIDAY MORNING…THEN INCREASING TO NEAR 30 KT FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR SAVAII AND UPOLU…NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT WILL TURN NORTHWEST AT 35 TO 40 KT FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM…

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY…COMPUTER MODELS HINTS AT BRINGING TC AMOS CLOSEST TO THE SOUTH OF UPOLU DURING SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING CLOSEST TO THE SOUTH OF TUTUILA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. STORM FORCE WINDS AND A LOT OF WEATHER ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FORECAST ZONES OVER THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT…ANTICIPATE HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER COASTAL WATERS DURING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL TAPER OFF BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MARINE…LARGE TRADE-WIND GENERATED SEAS AND SWELLS OF 9 TO 12 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT EAST AND SOUTH FACING REEFS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER…A NEW SWELL TRAIN GENERATED BY TC AMOS FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HAZARDOUS SWELLS OF 12 TO 14 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO NEAR 18 TO 22 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT.


Eastern North Pacific

The Eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Central North Pacific

The Central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 20P (Amos)

JTWC textual warning
JTWC graphical track map
JTWC satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala)

JTWC textual warning
JTWC graphical track map
JTWC satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area