Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

April 21, 2016
  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    26 minutes ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    15 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    54 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Asosan, Japan

    20 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - SW of Birao, Vakaga - Central African Republic

    31 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Diapaga, Tapoa - Burkina Faso

    31 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Malakal, Upper Nile - South Sudan

    31 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of Grafton, New South Wales - Australia

    35 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Katoomba, New South Wales - Australia

    35 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Batemans Bay, New South Wales - Australia

    35 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 63km NNE of Isangel, Vanuatu

    45 minutes ago WATCH

  • Wildfire - SW of Chos Malal, Neuquén - Argentina

    59 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Tropical Cyclone - Belna

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Winter Storm - Western, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Tropical Depression - Kammuri

    3 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tropical Cyclone - Ambali

    3 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tropical Cyclone - Pawan

    3 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfires - El Quisco, Chile

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Central New Zealand

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southeastern New Zealand

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Flooding - Northern Philippines

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Northern and Central South Korea

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Eastern South Korea

    4 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Storms - Sri Lanka

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Scotland, United Kingdom

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Northeastern France

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southeastern Italy

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Northern Germany

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.3 - 6km ESE of San Clemente, Peru

    20 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Avalanche - Banff, Yoho and Kootenay National Park, Canada

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Glacier National Park, Canada

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern United States

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern Alaska, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Gunnison and Aspen, Colorado, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Eastern New Mexico

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Northern South Africa

    5 hours ago WATCH

  • Floods - Western and Northern DR Congo

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Bududa, Uganda

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Esperance, Western Australia - Australia

    6 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 171km E of Kurilsk, Russia

    21 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 128km SSE of Pondaguitan, Philippines

    11 hours ago WATCH

  • Highwind - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    11 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 100km W of Kuqa, China

    21 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Nebraska City, NE Region, United States

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - St. Joseph, MO--KS Region, United States

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Richmond, MO Region, United States

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 93km ESE of Shikotan, Russia

    22 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Central City--Greenville, KY Region, United States

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Charleston, MO Region, United States

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Carmi, IL Region, United States

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangeang Api, Indonesia

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Sironko, Uganda

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Cunene Province, Angola

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Northwest Territories, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Madiera, Portugal

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Western Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bolivia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Argentina

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northwestern Argentina

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Somalia and Kenya

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Djibouti City, Djibouti

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Uganda

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northwestern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - England, United Kingdom

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - South India

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Argentina

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Central Asia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Dengue Fever Outbreak - Pakistan

    2 weeks ago ADVISORY

  • Dengue Outbreak - Philippines

    3 months ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 70km S of Kavieng, Papua New Guinea

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    2 days ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Etna, Italy

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Ibu, Indonesia

    2 days ago WATCH

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo/Uganda

    5 months ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Western Wyoming, United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Southeastern Idaho, United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Northern Utah, United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Dengue Fever Outbreak - Republic of the Sudan

    1 week ago ADVISORY

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans
April 21, 2016

Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala) remains active in the South Indian Ocean…located about 478 NM north-northwest of Port Louis, Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone 20P (Amos) remains active in the South Pacific Ocean…located about 488 NM west of Pago Pago, American Samoa

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala)

TC Fantala track moving offshore just north of Madagascar

TC Fantala track moving offshore just north of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala) remains active in the South Indian Ocean, northeast of Madagascar…as it continues to very slowly weaken

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical cyclone, and a near real time wind profile (spinning clockwise in the southern hemisphere)…and what the computer models are showing

Here’s a UW-CIMSS animated satellite image of this storm – along with a NASA satellite image taken today

TC 19S is still the equivalent of a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale…decreased from its category 5 status on April 18th.

Tropical cyclone 19S is located about 478 NM north-northwest of Port Louis, Mauritius…moving towards the east-southeast at 7 knots.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery depicts deep convective cloud banding, wrapping into a defined center. Imagery also reveals significant weakening of the core convection, with deep convective banding confined to the northwest quadrant.

Upper level analysis and animated water vapor imagery indicate increased northeasterly wind shear of 15-20 knots, offset by enhanced poleward outflow.

TC 19S is forecast to turn west-northwest after 36 hours.  Available weather guidance is in good agreement, and supports the west-northwestward track through 120 hours.

TC Fantala is forecast to weaken gradually through the period, under generally marginal conditions. Although, sea surface temperatures remain favorable after 72 hours, upper level westerlies are forecast to increase north of Madagascar…which should further weaken the system.

The center of Fantala’s strongest winds are expected to stay north of Madagascar, though the northern parts of the island may eventually see bands of rain and gusty winds. Additionally, high surf will be pounding the coasts of northern Madagascar locally, making for very dangerous conditions for mariners. The storm is expected to continue weakening as it moves towards Tanzania and northern Mozambique.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #20 were 90 knots with gusts of 110 knots


PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 20P (Amos)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 20P (Amos)

TC Amos track as it moves by close to the south of American Samoa

TC Amos track as it moves by close to the south of American Samoa

Tropical Cyclone 20P (Amos) continues to churn the waters of the South Pacific Ocean…heading generally into the area not far south of American Samoa

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical cyclone, and a near real time wind profile (spinning clockwise in the southern hemisphere)…and what the computer models are showing / This is a NASA satellite image taken today.

Tropical cyclone 20P (Amos) is located about 488 NM west of Pago Pago, American Samoa, tracking eastward at a slow paced 3 knots.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery depicts a compact, consolidating low level circulation center, with improved convective structure. In addition, there’s a well-defined microwave eye feature surrounded by multiple convective cloud bands, wrapping into the center.

This excellent low level structure, in combination with the radial outflow, suggests an imminent rapid intensification (RI) phase.

TC 20P has tracked slowly eastward and is forecast to accelerate eastward to southeastward.

Weather models are in tight agreement in supporting the JTWC forecast track…with high confidence.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #7 were 55 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The upcoming RI is expected to bring this storm to a peak intensity of 95 knots within 48 hours. Thereafter, it should weaken as it begins to encounter increasingly strong westerly winds aloft.

Here’s information provided by the NWS office in American Samoa:

The National Weather Service in Pago Pago has issued a Flash Flood Watch for all islands of American Samoa through Saturday, April 23. The NWS noted “increasing rainfall activities and thunderstorms are expected through the weekend. An active surface trough will linger over the Samoan Islands…and this trough will trigger numerous showers through Friday morning (Apr. 22) before the arrival of another series of rainfall activities associated with tropical cyclone Amos Friday afternoon into Saturday night. The potential threat for flash flooding is possible.”

SHORT TERM…

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT…TROPICAL CYCLONE AMOS (17F/20P) WAS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 SOUTH LONGITUDE 179.5 WEST OR ABOUT 600 MILES NORTHWEST OF TUTUILA…MOVING NEARLY STATIONARY. THE GFS MODEL RESOLUTION TRACKS TC AMOS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SAMOAN ISLANDS STARTING THURSDAY. TC AMOS WILL MOVE CLOSEST TO THE SOUTH OF SAVAII DURING FRIDAY NIGHT…HENCE INCREASING RAINFALL AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS THROUGH UPOLU EASTWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. IF MODELS ARE CORRECT…LOCAL WINDS AND RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. FOR AMERICAN SAMOA…ANTICIPATE TRADE-WIND CONDITIONS TO CHANGE DIRECTION TO NORTHEAST AT 25 KT FRIDAY MORNING…THEN INCREASING TO NEAR 30 KT FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR SAVAII AND UPOLU…NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT WILL TURN NORTHWEST AT 35 TO 40 KT FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM…

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY…COMPUTER MODELS HINTS AT BRINGING TC AMOS CLOSEST TO THE SOUTH OF UPOLU DURING SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING CLOSEST TO THE SOUTH OF TUTUILA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. STORM FORCE WINDS AND A LOT OF WEATHER ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FORECAST ZONES OVER THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT…ANTICIPATE HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER COASTAL WATERS DURING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL TAPER OFF BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MARINE…LARGE TRADE-WIND GENERATED SEAS AND SWELLS OF 9 TO 12 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT EAST AND SOUTH FACING REEFS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER…A NEW SWELL TRAIN GENERATED BY TC AMOS FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HAZARDOUS SWELLS OF 12 TO 14 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO NEAR 18 TO 22 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT.


Eastern North Pacific

The Eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Central North Pacific

The Central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 20P (Amos)

JTWC textual warning
JTWC graphical track map
JTWC satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala)

JTWC textual warning
JTWC graphical track map
JTWC satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area