Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

April 22, 2016
  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    27 minutes ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    15 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    55 minutes ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Asosan, Japan

    21 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - SW of Birao, Vakaga - Central African Republic

    32 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Diapaga, Tapoa - Burkina Faso

    32 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Malakal, Upper Nile - South Sudan

    32 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - W of Grafton, New South Wales - Australia

    36 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - SW of Katoomba, New South Wales - Australia

    36 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfire - NW of Batemans Bay, New South Wales - Australia

    36 minutes ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 6.0 - 63km NNE of Isangel, Vanuatu

    46 minutes ago WATCH

  • Wildfire - SW of Chos Malal, Neuquén - Argentina

    1 hour ago INFORMATION

  • Tropical Cyclone - Belna

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    1 hour ago ADVISORY

  • Winter Storm - Western, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Fuego, Guatemala

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Tropical Depression - Kammuri

    3 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tropical Cyclone - Ambali

    3 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tropical Cyclone - Pawan

    3 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Wildfires - El Quisco, Chile

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Central New Zealand

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southeastern New Zealand

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Flooding - Northern Philippines

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Cold - Northern and Central South Korea

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Eastern South Korea

    4 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Storms - Sri Lanka

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Scotland, United Kingdom

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Winter Storm - Northeastern France

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southeastern Italy

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Northern Germany

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.3 - 6km ESE of San Clemente, Peru

    20 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Avalanche - Banff, Yoho and Kootenay National Park, Canada

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Glacier National Park, Canada

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern Alaska, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Drought - Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Gunnison and Aspen, Colorado, United States

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Eastern New Mexico

    5 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Northern South Africa

    5 hours ago WATCH

  • Floods - Western and Northern DR Congo

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Bududa, Uganda

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - NE of Esperance, Western Australia - Australia

    6 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 171km E of Kurilsk, Russia

    21 hours ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 128km SSE of Pondaguitan, Philippines

    11 hours ago WATCH

  • Highwind - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    11 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 100km W of Kuqa, China

    21 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Nebraska City, NE Region, United States

    20 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - St. Joseph, MO--KS Region, United States

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Richmond, MO Region, United States

    21 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 93km ESE of Shikotan, Russia

    22 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Central City--Greenville, KY Region, United States

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Charleston, MO Region, United States

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Flood - Carmi, IL Region, United States

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangeang Api, Indonesia

    23 hours ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Sironko, Uganda

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Cunene Province, Angola

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Northwest Territories, Canada

    1 day ago WARNING

  • High Winds - Madiera, Portugal

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Western Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Bolivia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Southern Argentina

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northwestern Argentina

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Somalia and Kenya

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Djibouti City, Djibouti

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Uganda

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northwestern Mexico

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - England, United Kingdom

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - South India

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Argentina

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Winter Storms - Central Asia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Dengue Fever Outbreak - Pakistan

    2 weeks ago ADVISORY

  • Dengue Outbreak - Philippines

    3 months ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.6 - 70km S of Kavieng, Papua New Guinea

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    2 days ago ADVISORY

  • Volcano - Etna, Italy

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Ibu, Indonesia

    2 days ago WATCH

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo/Uganda

    5 months ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Western Wyoming, United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Southeastern Idaho, United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Avalanche - Northern Utah, United States

    3 days ago WARNING

  • Dengue Fever Outbreak - Republic of the Sudan

    1 week ago ADVISORY

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans
April 22, 2016

Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala) remains active in the South Indian Ocean…located about 414 NM north of Port Louis, Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone 20P (Amos) remains active in the South Pacific Ocean…located about 346 NM west-northwest of Pago Pago, American Samoa

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala)

Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala) remains active in the South Indian Ocean, northeast of Madagascar…as it continues to increase in strength a bit more over the next 2-days

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical cyclone, and a near real time wind profile (spinning clockwise in the southern hemisphere)…and what the computer models are showing

Here’s a UW-CIMSS animated satellite image of this storm

TC 19S is still the equivalent of a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale…decreased from its category 5 status on April 18th.

Tropical cyclone 19S is located about 414 NM north of Port Louis, Mauritius…drifting towards the southeast at a very slow paced 1 knot.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery depicts a compact, consolidating low level circulation center, with a 10 NM eye feature.

Upper level analysis and animated water vapor imagery indicate improved overall outflow, especially on the poleward side of the system.

TC 19S is forecast to track slowly within a weak steering environment, although is forecast to turn northwestward after 12 hours.

Available dynamic weather guidance is in good agreement, and supports the track through 120 hours. TC 19S is forecast to intensify to a peak of 110 knots by 24 hours…under favorable conditions. Although, sea surface temperatures remain favorable after 72 hours, with upper level westerlies are forecast to strengthen north of Madagascar…which should lead to gradual weakening as the system tracks westward towards Tanzania and northern Mozambique.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #22 were 90 knots with gusts of 110 knots


PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and tropical cyclone Positions and Segments for Tropical Cyclone 20P (Amos)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and tropical cyclone Positions and Segments for Tropical Cyclone 20P (Amos)

TC Amos track as it moves by close to the south of Samoa

TC Amos track as it moves by close to the south of Samoa

Tropical Cyclone 20P (Amos)…will make a close pass to Samoa and American Samoa this weekend, and may be the strongest tropical cyclone to skirt the islands in over 10 years.

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical cyclone, and a near real time wind profile (spinning clockwise in the southern hemisphere)…and what the computer models are showing

Tropical cyclone 20P (Amos) is located about 346 NM west-northwest of Pago Pago, American Samoa, tracking eastward at 8 knots.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery depicts a compact, consolidating system with an eye feature.

TC Amos has rapidly intensified over the past 24 hours, increasing about 35 knots from 50 knots to 90 knots.

Upper level analysis indicates near radial outflow, which should support continued intensification over the next 48 hours. TC 20P is forecast to track east-southeastward to southeastward. This track will drive the system to within 70-80 NM south of Pago Pago…with gale force winds just skirting American Samoa.

After 48 hours, the system should turn south-southwestward. After 72 hours, 20P will resume a more eastward path…with a weakening trend expected then.

Weather models are in tight agreement in supporting the JTWC forecast track…with high confidence.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #11 were 90 knots with gusts of 110 knots.

The center of Amos is expected to make its closest approach to the largest Samoan islands of Savai’i and Upolu Sunday, local time. While the eye is most likely to pass south of the islands…it may track close enough to bring some of the eyewall ashore in those islands.

According to the National Weather Service, tropical storm-force winds are possible in American Samoa by late Saturday, local time. Gusts to 50 mph may lead to some sporadic power outages and downed tree limbs. Somewhat higher gusts are possible over the islands’ mountains.

Storm surge flooding is likely particularly along the north-facing coasts of both Savai’i and Upolu, in addition to pounding high surf atop the surge.

Rain bands from Amos will increase in intensity…as a result, NWS has issued a flash flood watch for all islands of American Samoa through Sunday. Amos has the potential to drop from 5-20 inches of rain across Samoa and American Samoa, leading to dangerous, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides through Sunday.

Here’s information provided by the NWS office in American Samoa:

SHORT TERM…

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT…AMOS WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD TOWARD THE SAMOAN ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THUS…ANTICIPATE STORM TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITH DESTRUCTIVE GUSTS…AND HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING FROM SAVAII EASTWARD ON FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. 

LONG TERM…

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY…STORM FORCE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO AT LEAST NEAR 35 TO 45 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS AMERICAN SAMOA…WHILE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER INDEPENDENT STATE OF SAMOA ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO NEAR 20 TO 25 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HURRICANE AMOS WILL GENERATE A LOT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AMERICAN SAMOA THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. AS A RESULT…ANTICIPATE A LOT OF WEATHER ACTIVITY DURING THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AROUND TUESDAY. 

MARINE…HURRICANE FORCE GENERATED SWELLS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURFS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WATCHES/WARNINGS...

HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL SHORES OF AMERICAN SAMOA.

TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AMERICAN SAMOA.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ISLANDS OF AMERICAN SAMOA.


Eastern North Pacific

The Eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Central North Pacific

The Central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 20P (Amos)

JTWC textual warning
JTWC graphical track map
JTWC satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala)

JTWC textual warning
JTWC graphical track map
JTWC satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area