Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans

April 22, 2016
  • Tornado - Nashville, TN WFO Region, US

    12 minutes ago WARNING

  • Flood - Baton Rouge, LA Region, United States

    19 minutes ago WARNING

  • Flood - Kinston, NC Region, United States

    32 minutes ago WARNING

  • Flood - West Liberty, IA Region, United States

    34 minutes ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central, United States

    37 minutes ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 6.4 - 134 km NNE of Tobelo, Indonesia

    17 hours ago WATCH

  • Flood - Caruthersville, MO Region, United States

    54 minutes ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.5 - 17km S of Searles Valley, CA

    21 hours ago WATCH

  • Flood - Lebanon, PA Region, United States

    55 minutes ago WARNING

  • Flood - Osceola, AR Region, United States

    55 minutes ago WARNING

  • Highsurf - Advisory (Hawaiian Islands)

    59 minutes ago ADVISORY

  • Floods - Southeastern, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - Roanoke Rapids, NC Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Aira, Japan

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Flood - Owensboro, KY Region, United States

    1 hour ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Dukono, Indonesia

    2 hours ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Asosan, Japan

    2 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Wildfire - E of Malanje - Angola

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Reventador, Ecuador

    2 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - E of Pine Creek, Northern Territory - Australia

    2 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Volcano - Popocatepetl, Mexico

    3 hours ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Hawaii

    2 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - North America

    2 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Nevados de Chillán, Chile

    4 hours ago WARNING

  • Tropical Depression - Cristobal

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sangay, Ecuador

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Sabancaya, Peru

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Pune District, India

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Southeastern Mexico

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Yemen

    5 hours ago WARNING

  • Wildfire - Solano County (Wildlife Fire), California, United States

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Germany

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Italy

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Northern Sweden

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Vietnam

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Brunei

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northeastern Argentina

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Europe

    2 months ago WARNING

  • Storms - Pakistan

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - India

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Guatemala

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - El Salvador

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - El Salvador

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Floods - Central Norway

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Mexico

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Mexico

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Northern Vietnam

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Malaysia

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Storms - Peninsular Malaysia

    6 hours ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Africa

    2 months ago WARNING

  • Measles Outbreak - Democratic Republic of the Congo

    4 months ago INFORMATION

  • Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo

    8 hours ago WARNING

  • Yellow Fever - Nigeria

    5 months ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 6.8 - 48 km SSW of San Pedro de Atacama, Chile

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 363 km NNE of Saipan, Northern Mariana Islands

    8 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.7 - 167 km N of Labuan Lombok, Indonesia

    8 hours ago WATCH

  • Flood - Williston, ND Region, United States

    9 hours ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Suwanosejima, Japan

    10 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Flood - Huron, SD Region, United States

    11 hours ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.0 - 122 km WNW of Ternate, Indonesia

    12 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Earthquake - 5.1 - 58 km NW of Port-Vila, Vanuatu

    14 hours ago ADVISORY

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Middle East

    2 months ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Asia Pacific

    2 months ago WARNING

  • Tsunami (Pacific Ocean) - Halmahera Indonesia - 6.7

    17 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tsunami (Hawaiian Islands) - Halmahera Indonesia - 6.7

    17 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Tsunami (AK/BC/US West Coast) - in Halmahera, Indonesia - 6.7

    17 hours ago INFORMATION

  • Floods - Dokolo District, Uganda

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Landslides - Barak Valley Region, India

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - US Virgin Islands

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Hawaii, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Singapore

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Eastern Peru

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Somalia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Storms - Panama

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Floods - Honduras

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southeastern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Southern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - High Plains United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Northwestern United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Mariana Islands

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Marshall Islands

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Drought - Micronesia

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Karymsky, Russia

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Wildfire - Pinal County (Sawtooth Fire), Arizona, United States

    1 day ago WARNING

  • Earthquake - 5.9 - 408 km SSW of ‘Ohonua, Tonga

    1 day ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Semeru, Indonesia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Extreme Heat - Southwestern United States

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Cleveland, United States

    2 days ago WATCH

  • Volcano - Klyuchevskoy, Russia

    2 days ago WARNING

  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Latin America/Caribbean

    2 months ago WARNING

  • Volcano - Ebeko, Russia

    3 days ago ADVISORY

VIEW ALL HAZARDS
Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific / Indian Oceans
April 22, 2016

Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala) remains active in the South Indian Ocean…located about 414 NM north of Port Louis, Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone 20P (Amos) remains active in the South Pacific Ocean…located about 346 NM west-northwest of Pago Pago, American Samoa

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and tropical cyclone Positions and Segments, and Estimated Winds (TAOS Model) layers for Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala)

Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala) remains active in the South Indian Ocean, northeast of Madagascar…as it continues to increase in strength a bit more over the next 2-days

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical cyclone, and a near real time wind profile (spinning clockwise in the southern hemisphere)…and what the computer models are showing

Here’s a UW-CIMSS animated satellite image of this storm

TC 19S is still the equivalent of a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale…decreased from its category 5 status on April 18th.

Tropical cyclone 19S is located about 414 NM north of Port Louis, Mauritius…drifting towards the southeast at a very slow paced 1 knot.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery depicts a compact, consolidating low level circulation center, with a 10 NM eye feature.

Upper level analysis and animated water vapor imagery indicate improved overall outflow, especially on the poleward side of the system.

TC 19S is forecast to track slowly within a weak steering environment, although is forecast to turn northwestward after 12 hours.

Available dynamic weather guidance is in good agreement, and supports the track through 120 hours. TC 19S is forecast to intensify to a peak of 110 knots by 24 hours…under favorable conditions. Although, sea surface temperatures remain favorable after 72 hours, with upper level westerlies are forecast to strengthen north of Madagascar…which should lead to gradual weakening as the system tracks westward towards Tanzania and northern Mozambique.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #22 were 90 knots with gusts of 110 knots


PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and tropical cyclone Positions and Segments for Tropical Cyclone 20P (Amos)

PDC Global Hazards Atlas displaying rainfall accumulation over the last 3-hours…and tropical cyclone Positions and Segments for Tropical Cyclone 20P (Amos)

TC Amos track as it moves by close to the south of Samoa

TC Amos track as it moves by close to the south of Samoa

Tropical Cyclone 20P (Amos)…will make a close pass to Samoa and American Samoa this weekend, and may be the strongest tropical cyclone to skirt the islands in over 10 years.

Here’s a satellite image of this tropical cyclone, and a near real time wind profile (spinning clockwise in the southern hemisphere)…and what the computer models are showing

Tropical cyclone 20P (Amos) is located about 346 NM west-northwest of Pago Pago, American Samoa, tracking eastward at 8 knots.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite imagery depicts a compact, consolidating system with an eye feature.

TC Amos has rapidly intensified over the past 24 hours, increasing about 35 knots from 50 knots to 90 knots.

Upper level analysis indicates near radial outflow, which should support continued intensification over the next 48 hours. TC 20P is forecast to track east-southeastward to southeastward. This track will drive the system to within 70-80 NM south of Pago Pago…with gale force winds just skirting American Samoa.

After 48 hours, the system should turn south-southwestward. After 72 hours, 20P will resume a more eastward path…with a weakening trend expected then.

Weather models are in tight agreement in supporting the JTWC forecast track…with high confidence.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #11 were 90 knots with gusts of 110 knots.

The center of Amos is expected to make its closest approach to the largest Samoan islands of Savai’i and Upolu Sunday, local time. While the eye is most likely to pass south of the islands…it may track close enough to bring some of the eyewall ashore in those islands.

According to the National Weather Service, tropical storm-force winds are possible in American Samoa by late Saturday, local time. Gusts to 50 mph may lead to some sporadic power outages and downed tree limbs. Somewhat higher gusts are possible over the islands’ mountains.

Storm surge flooding is likely particularly along the north-facing coasts of both Savai’i and Upolu, in addition to pounding high surf atop the surge.

Rain bands from Amos will increase in intensity…as a result, NWS has issued a flash flood watch for all islands of American Samoa through Sunday. Amos has the potential to drop from 5-20 inches of rain across Samoa and American Samoa, leading to dangerous, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides through Sunday.

Here’s information provided by the NWS office in American Samoa:

SHORT TERM…

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT…AMOS WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD TOWARD THE SAMOAN ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THUS…ANTICIPATE STORM TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITH DESTRUCTIVE GUSTS…AND HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING FROM SAVAII EASTWARD ON FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. 

LONG TERM…

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY…STORM FORCE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO AT LEAST NEAR 35 TO 45 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS AMERICAN SAMOA…WHILE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER INDEPENDENT STATE OF SAMOA ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO NEAR 20 TO 25 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HURRICANE AMOS WILL GENERATE A LOT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AMERICAN SAMOA THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. AS A RESULT…ANTICIPATE A LOT OF WEATHER ACTIVITY DURING THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AROUND TUESDAY. 

MARINE…HURRICANE FORCE GENERATED SWELLS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURFS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WATCHES/WARNINGS...

HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL SHORES OF AMERICAN SAMOA.

TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AMERICAN SAMOA.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ISLANDS OF AMERICAN SAMOA.


Eastern North Pacific

The Eastern Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the eastern Pacific again on May 15, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Central North Pacific

The Central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2015 hurricane season has occurred. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2016. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Satellite image of this area

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 20P (Amos)

JTWC textual warning
JTWC graphical track map
JTWC satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala)

JTWC textual warning
JTWC graphical track map
JTWC satellite image

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area